Here’s the basis for what I’m talking about……..Variables like rainfall are the beginning for what can be a chain of cause and effect events. The easiest way to see how these things play out are when they occur at “extremes”……For example, when there’s an extreme spike in rainfall then its easier to see the effects stick out several links down the cause/effect chain because they are likely to occur in an extreme as well. We just came through a record wet period so you would expect to see other large effects tied to it…….

Just like in extreme south Alabama……Looking at Google Earth actually makes it easy to see because you’re basically looking at it from an avian predator’s point of view………..There’s very little canopy cover. Its probably an avian predator paradise across a very large area. In years when rodent numbers are down poults probably get hammered across this region. But when there’s a rodent boom……then there’s a rodent BOOOM!!!!.....and poults see a lot pressure taken off of them temporarily. Record rain would produce a record rodent boom which would produce record relief from avian predators and eventually down the line.....a really big spikes in kill numbers like we see.

I think canopy cover is probably a big variable at play here……When you have closed canopy it probably takes away a lot of the avian predators advantage and population growth becomes more limited by nest predation than aerial attacks. There’s probably much higher base rodent populations in those uncanopied areas as well.