Taking that same concept a little further about the numbers on that last map…….I have an idea for why that big swath of southern counties may be seeing those big increases………

It seems pretty obvious that turkey kills are following the same up/down patterns that temps and rainfall do……likely lagging a couple years behind. I’m guessing its probably rainfall and its impact on rodent populations and in turn the impact that has on avian predators preying on poults.

Soooo, we pretty much all saw the same record wet pattern statewide a couple/three years ago. That should mean that everyone saw relief from avian predators during that time period……What I’m thinking is that the numbers on that map may also be showing us just how much of an impact avian predators were having in those southern counties. The record rainfall removed a lot of avian pressure and those areas really responded since that was a major limiting factor for population growth…….

Other counties, again like Jackson or Cleburne were not being as limited by avian predators and therefore the “relief” didn’t matter nearly as much…..The little amount of relief combined with the increase in nest predation due to baiting being why they saw a decline during this same time period.........maybe......possibly.......something to that effect is happening.