I threw this together just to look and see what patterns emerged…..Its a comparison of where we are right now compared to last year’s total…..Looking back on the last few years we’ve killed 16K, 14K, 15K, and then last year a little over 18K……so this comparison to last year is comparing to the highest total in the last few years…..It looks like quite a few counties are going to reach that same level or higher again this year…..I really want to believe that these two elevated harvest years coincide with the two years of record rainfall we had a few years ago.

Something that does look very apparent is that some counties show much more variability in harvest than others…..For example, over the last 4 seasons……Walker Co numbers have been 229…230…229….263……Tuscaloosa’s is 373…348…326… 375……Elmore…..208….175….178….177….You see this fairly consistent pattern occurring across a portion of the counties while other counties have much more variability…..For example, Bullock’s numbers have been 268…..173….248…..322……Covington 242….263…..303…..415…….Pike 252……233…..305…..380......Barbour 375.....327.....432.....542

When you look at which ones are which a pattern emerges…….I hate to ruffle Gobbler’s feathers but looking at the numbers it is what it is…..Now I aint saying we need to quit burning but I think something about what we’re doing is causing more fluctuations than “normal” compared to other counties…..Maybe this isnt what’s causing it but it sure seems that way….If we are causing it, it would dang sure benefit us to know why....I have some hunches and it revolves around grass and rodents

We're producing grass in excess….. which is producing rodents in excess and supporting high predator loads…..The rodents are booming and busting with rain cycles…..On the dry years and rodent bust years of the cycle the poults get hit hard by the high predator loads……The reason some of these counties saw a huge boom in kills last year is likely because the record rainfall we had a few years ago produced a boom in rodents at that time. To show this in a quick hypothetical example…..If we have 100 turkey poults in amongst 100,000 rodents on a boom year, they are much more likely to survive than when we have 100 turkey poults amongst 1,000 rodents when the rodent cycle busts. Its a matter of probability...The high predator counts are going to exploit the alternative prey sources before they bust with the rodents.

Need to moderate the grass in order to moderate the base predator loads

Get the data showing changes in burning by county and prove the point. You go ahead and quit burning and recommend your folks to do the same and see how that works out for ya! My burn clients have plenty of turkeys and scoff at the "decline".

Dang it gobbler... you was supposed to not post on this thread so we could see how many times CNC would post in a row. SMH...

The powers that be will use your numbers to claim victory over their leading turkey conservation efforts.

I’ve come to the conclusion that nothing is going to change from what we have happening now because no one is willing to do anything any differently whether that be the state selling corn permits and feeding the coons…… not creating a trapping incentive…… or too many landowners ripping off dormant season grass fires just perpetuating an overabundance of grass…..or diseased chicken litter being put out……The only thing that is going to change if any changes are made will be bag limits…..Might as well piss on the fire and call the dogs with this whole turkey decline thingy…….Its just gonna be what its gonna be.

You add in any pre season kills? Non reports?

Alright so just for chits and giggles I made a map to illustrate the amount of “variability” occurring with the harvest in each county…..To come up with a number for each county I took the highest harvest in the last 4 years and subtracted from it the lowest harvest…..Since some counties are killing 400 birds and others killing 200, etc you can't compare those numbers you come up with apples to apples……In order to put them all on an even playing field I then divided that number by each counties 4 year average……and that’s what you’re looking at on this map…..Each number is actually .xx but I just took the decimal out……Basically the higher the number the more variability in annual harvest…….the lower the number the less variability.

Just to note…..Morgan Co is a bit of an outlier because they harvest a really small amount and likely due to trapping efforts in a small area they nearly tripled their harvest from 25 from 65

As one of my uncles used to say - it sholey nuff is the truth!

If the harvest numbers go down, it's proof that we don't have enough hunting restrictions and need more. If the harvest numbers go up, it's proof that the hunting restrictions are working and we just need more of them.


CNC, those are good charts. But I don't really agree with your analysis. Where are all these "grass fires" taking place? I burn very little grass and I don't see it in the fires I observe driving down the road either. Most of the burns I see are dormant season understory burns that are primarily burning pine needles and sweetgum saplings.

I'm doing my part. 0 turkeys killed in 4 years. Conservation at it's finest right there.

I think opening up an owl season is the answer.

And hawks ^

The “plantation belt” is a main culprit but you can look at that variability map I posted and see that many of the counties with the most fire have the biggest swings in harvest…..The numbers dont lie.....Again, I aint saying we need to quit burning but it would great if we could moderate the “busts”.....I think that would come through burning pine needles and hardwoods in the dormant season and grass stands in May/June....or something of that nature.

PCP……I think you can look around at some of the counties that don’t really burn much but still have thriving turkey populations to see that there is more to it than just burning……Burning is a double-edged sword if you use it in a manner that creates excess predator loads…..

Counties with the biggest swings in harvest

1) Conecuh
2) Coffee
3) Mobile
4) Bullock
5) Russell
6) Montgomery
7) Covington
8) Talledega
9) Limestone
10) Barbour
11) Tallapoosa
12) Pike
13) Macon
14) Escambia
15) Geneva

I’m more interested in historical change from these days to 10-30 years ago. Year to year swings are just that

It's an interesting theory that increasing rodents decreased poult production. I've never seen burning do anything but improve turkey habitat and turkey numbers, but I have little experience with the big plantations. I don't think they can maintain quail habitat without burning.

I mentioned this in another thread but one of the problems with this situation is that these large properties that are producing a big imbalance of grass are not just affecting their properties…..they’re propping up predator populations that are likely impacting everyone around them…..That’s probably a big part of why these counties are seeing the largest amount of fluctuation. The whole area is being impacted by the predator loads..... especially the more mediocre properties with lesser habitat....Its a very similar concept to the coons and corn scenario where the coons are grouped on the feeders getting fat and then disperse when the food runs dry.