What year did we start the 100 yard and out of the line of sight baiting rule?

I wanna say around 2010.

Getting ready to post another chart or graph? LOL

We saw a big decline in turkey kill numbers statewide starting in 2015…..If the baiting started around 2010-11 then that would be about right for the effects to work through the system and be the culprit of it. Numbers took a pretty heavy crash……so you pretty much expect that the variable causing was also some type of significant change…… It took a couple years for baiting to really ramp up and for the coon population to start really being effected……and since kill numbers are mostly dictated by the number of 2+ years olds for that season then there would have been another two year delay before the effect on harvest kicked in. About 4 years after we started feeding corn, turkey kills started going way down. I predict that the CWD areas will see an increase in turkey populations over the next few years.

My crash started at birth..so put that in your graph an calculate it

Unless you are also tracking the weather patterns in the spring each year and factoring that into your graph too, you're just pissing in the wind. Cold, wet springs can be exceptionally detrimental to poult survival. Also run you a line on your graph for the hog population in AL for the same years. I know that where I hunt, the decline in the quality of our turkey hunting correlated perfectly with the expansion of our now established resident hog population. Pre-hog, we were loaded with birds. The more hogs we saw on the property, the less turkeys we saw and heard. Our turkey population decline started about the third year after the hogs showed up which is really when they got established in numbers. I firmly believe that hogs are just as bad or worse on turkey nests as any of the other predators. While you're at it, throw a line on there for the coyote population too. Gobbling decreased as those became more more and prevalent.

Hurricanes (especially Katrina) have wreaked havoc on the Turkey population (killed bunch of deer also) around my neck of the woods.

Excellent point there J. CNC, put some more lines on your chart for hurricanes, tornados, and really bad thunderstorms by year.

Pretty sure he had it figured out before he started the chart.

I think coon trapping has an impact. A pair of racoons eat a nest ful of eggs a day.

A hog will eat a nest full of eggs in 5 seconds and move right on looking for the next thing to eat. A hog will also cover miles more terrain in a day than a coon will. I'm a firm believer that for places with high hog populations, hogs are a big part of the problem we are seeing.

A certainly dont disagree with that.....Their populations are THICK in some areas for sure. Baiting likely just exacerbated that issue as well

I would agree with that as well.

Thanks CNC- pretty insightful theory. Add the hog presence factor and think you are on to something...

There's definitely been a deline. Big deline. It's bad when you're trying to sound really smart and don't proof read your stuff...

I believe the exact year was 2013 Lockjaw......I corrected the graph.

Looks like the classic wildlife boom and bust cycles that you see in normal wild populations. Your chart shows basically a 10 yr (avg) cycle. You have to look at normalized trend lines over years to evaluate data. 79-88 steady increase, 88-93 steady decrease, 94-2000 flat, 2000-2008 huge increase, 2009-2022 steady decrease. If the trend continues, we should see a stable or slightly increasing population for another 4-5 years, than another boom or massive increase.

Pretty simple really. The current decrease probably should've stabilized back in 2019 or 20 but was more severe than in previous years (lasted longer) due to the "perfect storm" created by way more days being hunted than normal in 2020 and 2021 as a result of COVID holiday (those additional birds killed were not available to help with reproduction or population stabilization), baiting being fully legalized in Alabama in 2019, all combined with expanding hog and predator populations. Based solely on the data presented, if everything holds true, we should see things remain fairly stable for the next few years then an increasing population/harvest starting in 2026 or 2027.

You’re correct….“Normal” fluctuations are driven by differences in rainfall ……In a perfect situation that would really be the main factor of influence. We inject man-made variables into the equation though that cause those fluctuations to deviate from those normal patterns....What we are experiencing during the current time period is due to our own actions and not just normal fluctuations…..Yeah, things will likely stabilize back out in those normal patterns in another few years but it will also do it at a lower baseline level population of turkeys