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Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: goodman_hunter] #3086323
04/01/20 11:42 AM
04/01/20 11:42 AM
Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 10,740
Birmingham
W
wew3006 Offline
Booner
wew3006  Offline
Booner
W
Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 10,740
Birmingham
Originally Posted by goodman_hunter
i was starting to calm down till the president said they expected up to 240,000 american deaths even with mitigation. What are they basing this on?


Watch yesterday's press conference; they very clearly and transparently explain their hypothesis. You can be sure; they did not look forward to delivering this sobering projection. Hoping for "only" 80-100k deaths on thew low side.
Lets hope; we do the right things and the mitigation plan proves them wrong.

Last edited by wew3006; 04/01/20 11:42 AM.
Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: wew3006] #3086403
04/01/20 01:07 PM
04/01/20 01:07 PM
Joined: Aug 2018
Posts: 3,884
Montgomery, Alabama
B
bama1971 Offline
10 point
bama1971  Offline
10 point
B
Joined: Aug 2018
Posts: 3,884
Montgomery, Alabama
Originally Posted by wew3006
Originally Posted by goodman_hunter
i was starting to calm down till the president said they expected up to 240,000 american deaths even with mitigation. What are they basing this on?


Watch yesterday's press conference; they very clearly and transparently explain their hypothesis. You can be sure; they did not look forward to delivering this sobering projection. Hoping for "only" 80-100k deaths on thew low side.
Lets hope; we do the right things and the mitigation plan proves them wrong.


some crazy stats

U.S. mortality rate has surged to 2.16 percent (4,099 deaths out of 189,711 reported cases as of this morning). Last week, it was about 1.5 percent. The U.S. rate is still less than half of the global rate of 5 percent (44,214 deaths out of 885,301 reported cases), which itself is probably a gross understatement (unless you believe the rosy reports from China)

. Yesterday, it was 3.29 percent as deaths hit a record daily high of 912 (well over 300 more than on any previous day), as new cases swelled to 24,742.

Source

Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: goodman_hunter] #3086426
04/01/20 01:29 PM
04/01/20 01:29 PM
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 51,964
Round ‘bout there
C
Clem Offline
Mildly Quirky
Clem  Offline
Mildly Quirky
C
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 51,964
Round ‘bout there
Originally Posted by goodman_hunter
i was starting to calm down till the president said they expected up to 240,000 american deaths even with mitigation. What are they basing this on?



Gotta be fake information, fake numbers, something the Democrats in the Deep State are foisting on Trump and his team to send out to the masses as they plan the purge before upending the country to take it over.

Right? That's what we keep hearing. "Just the flu, no big deal, fake and nothing to get upset about."

So those 240K numbers are just bullchit fake news for the sheeple. Gotta be. Can't be real. We need to be more strong, free and independently wise thinkers like Belarus and play hockey. When are the masses going to march in the streets?


"Hunting Politics are stupid!" - Farm Hunter

"Bible says you shouldn't put sugar in your cornbread." Dustin, 2013

"Best I can figure 97.365% of the general public is a paint chip eating, mouth breathing, certified dumbass." BCLC, 2020
Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: goodman_hunter] #3086441
04/01/20 01:42 PM
04/01/20 01:42 PM
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 23,925
Clarksville, TN /Greenville, ...
bill Offline OP
Freak of Nature
bill  Offline OP
Freak of Nature
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 23,925
Clarksville, TN /Greenville, ...
Originally Posted by goodman_hunter
i was starting to calm down till the president said they expected up to 240,000 american deaths even with mitigation. What are they basing this on?



Who knows? It's the 3rd different number that Fauchi has come up with and they never give an explanation for how they are arriving at that number. Even the ones with crazy 2 million plus death rates publish their studies. Just remember, medical related errors are the 3rd leading cause of death in this country. They save a lot of lives but they outright kill some people, too. More than the number they claim will die from this virus. People aren't scared of doctors, though.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/22/medical-errors-third-leading-cause-of-death-in-america.html

Last edited by bill; 04/01/20 01:51 PM.

"Political debate: when charlatans come together to discuss their principles"
-
Bauvard
Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3086447
04/01/20 01:48 PM
04/01/20 01:48 PM
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 7,089
Free State of Winston
F
FreeStateHunter Offline
They Call Me Gator 🐊
FreeStateHunter  Offline
They Call Me Gator 🐊
F
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 7,089
Free State of Winston
I think its pretty clear at this point that there is plenty of valid reasons to be concerned about this virus. The social distancing had less to do with the deadliness/lethality of the virus and more to do with the overall capability and resources of our hospitals. I for one believe it was the right thing to do. It's starting to rear it's ugly head in the way of deaths and even affecting people in this state and on this board personally. If this country would have went ahead with business as usual it would have created an all out panic and would have completely crashed our economy rather than the minimal slow down that we saw that we're already recovering from. I believe Trump is handling this as good as any President could and just hope and pray myself, my family and my friends all stay healthy through it all. I also hope that all of you stay healthy as well and find joy in this time rather than seeing it as just an inconvenience. Praise be to God!!!

Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bama1971] #3086572
04/01/20 04:29 PM
04/01/20 04:29 PM

O
outdoorobsession
Unregistered
outdoorobsession
Unregistered
O


Originally Posted by bama1971
Originally Posted by wew3006
Originally Posted by goodman_hunter
i was starting to calm down till the president said they expected up to 240,000 american deaths even with mitigation. What are they basing this on?


Watch yesterday's press conference; they very clearly and transparently explain their hypothesis. You can be sure; they did not look forward to delivering this sobering projection. Hoping for "only" 80-100k deaths on thew low side.
Lets hope; we do the right things and the mitigation plan proves them wrong.


some crazy stats

U.S. mortality rate has surged to 2.16 percent (4,099 deaths out of 189,711 reported cases as of this morning). Last week, it was about 1.5 percent. The U.S. rate is still less than half of the global rate of 5 percent (44,214 deaths out of 885,301 reported cases), which itself is probably a gross understatement (unless you believe the rosy reports from China)

. Yesterday, it was 3.29 percent as deaths hit a record daily high of 912 (well over 300 more than on any previous day), as new cases swelled to 24,742.

Source



And the sad part is the hospitals are not even overwhelmed yet. That is when the mortality rate skyrockets. These are the first cases...it is going to get much worse I believe. People can still get on ventilators as they are still available. Soon that will not be the case. Yall stay safe.

Wash your hands a lot, wear masks and gloves if you can and are in a store etc. I really dont see what is so hard with these guidelines that some people just wont follow them. It is actually pretty easy.

Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3086592
04/01/20 04:46 PM
04/01/20 04:46 PM
Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 10,740
Birmingham
W
wew3006 Offline
Booner
wew3006  Offline
Booner
W
Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 10,740
Birmingham
Agree ODO; this is the best advice I have seen for best practices:


[Linked Image]

Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3095183
04/10/20 05:24 AM
04/10/20 05:24 AM
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375
Jasper, AL
J
joshm28 Offline
14 point
joshm28  Offline
14 point
J
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375
Jasper, AL
Looks like we have peaked as far as a day over day increase in new cases. Since last Saturday we (the US) has managed to slow down the day over day growth. I had predicted it would have been a couple days earlier based on what the virus has done in other countries. Hopefully we will start seeing a decline in cases the coming week. From all outward appearances we are moving slowly back towards normal life.

[Linked Image]

Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3095187
04/10/20 05:57 AM
04/10/20 05:57 AM
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 1,589
Alabama
R
Red Fox Offline
8 point
Red Fox  Offline
8 point
R
Joined: Aug 2019
Posts: 1,589
Alabama
Thanks for the updates and graphs. Hopefully we are headed back to normal soon.

Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3120741
05/11/20 08:21 AM
05/11/20 08:21 AM
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 23,925
Clarksville, TN /Greenville, ...
bill Offline OP
Freak of Nature
bill  Offline OP
Freak of Nature
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 23,925
Clarksville, TN /Greenville, ...
How has this thread aged? Anyone care to guess what has been recently exposed in regards to the Imperial College model that was the sole reason we locked down most of the country?

Are millions dying? Was our healthcare system overwhelmed? Were those that questioned the numbers proven wrong? Were those that bought into the massive death tolls and hospitalizations proven right? Have the experts we were called morons for not trusting, been proven right? Has Neil Ferguson at Imperial College, Dr. Tony Fauci , Dr. Brix and the CDC proven credible?


"Political debate: when charlatans come together to discuss their principles"
-
Bauvard
Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3120763
05/11/20 08:58 AM
05/11/20 08:58 AM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 7,258
Lee County
R
RCHRR Offline
14 point
RCHRR  Offline
14 point
R
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 7,258
Lee County
It’s all being proven to be the biggest case of fraud EVER. All credibility of the people behind the data and news media concerning Covid-19 is going out the window and mass hysteria took over to ruin the world economies.

1. No
2. No
3. No
4. No
5. No
6. And yet another NO.

Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: RCHRR] #3120766
05/11/20 09:01 AM
05/11/20 09:01 AM
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 643
Madison County
B
bholmes Offline
4 point
bholmes  Offline
4 point
B
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 643
Madison County
Originally Posted by RCHRR
It’s all being proven to be the biggest case of fraud EVER. All credibility of the people behind the data and news media concerning Covid-19 is going out the window and mass hysteria took over to ruin the world economies.

1. No
2. No
3. No
4. No
5. No
6. And yet another NO.


What he said!

Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3120772
05/11/20 09:07 AM
05/11/20 09:07 AM
Joined: Sep 2018
Posts: 2,270
Helena
700ltr308 Offline
8 point
700ltr308  Offline
8 point
Joined: Sep 2018
Posts: 2,270
Helena
Yep

Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3121098
05/11/20 04:48 PM
05/11/20 04:48 PM
Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 12,918
Old Florida
Geno Offline
Booner
Geno  Offline
Booner
Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 12,918
Old Florida
CDC provisional death count was downgraded from 39 thousand to 37 thousand mysteriously. Now up to 49,867. Lockdown is killing us and will continue to.

Worldwide:
covid deaths = 286,493
flu deaths same timeframe bad year = 290,303

It's closing in on flu.

New York City has 14,753 deaths. Tightly locked down.
Tokyo, the world's largest and most densely populated city, has 155 deaths. Never locked down.

The virus has been in both cities the same amount of time. Tokyo has a considerably older population as Japan's lifespan is 6 years longer than the U.S. On the flip side, much better physical condition on average. Death rate currently 95 times higher in NYC than Tokyo (if this is not a reason to abandon the sedintary/obesity U.S. lifestyle, I don't know what is). If our government's numbers are actually true, that is.

I originally predicted 0.75-1.5 times as bad as flu in a bad year but I am thinking it won't quite make it to the high end. If it ends up at 1.25 times as bad as flu, I will be surprised.



Whoever is happy will make others happy too. Anne Frank
Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3121106
05/11/20 05:17 PM
05/11/20 05:17 PM
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 14,304
Hoover
F
Fattyfireplug Offline
Booner
Fattyfireplug  Offline
Booner
F
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 14,304
Hoover
Originally Posted by bill
Originally Posted by abolt300
Originally Posted by woodduck
Any original and updated numbers on US cases?


Original model numbers I saw projected that 150,000,000 (basically half the US population) would get it in the US and the death rate would be around 3%, if I'm remembering correctly. Nobody is showing the new models that I can find.

I know that Gov Andrew Cuomo was saying, as late as Monday morning, that they expected over half the NY state population, or 10,000,000 New Yorkers, to come down with it (Note: ten million projected cases and they are sitting 37,000 cases right now so they have a ways to go) Then Monday he said that "the number of new cases daily" was doubling every 2 days, then on Tuesday he said it was doubling every 2.7 days then this morning, he said "It appears almost too good to be true but the numbers now show it is only doubling every 4.7 days." It is definitely slowing down based on that data. Especially given the massive ramp up in additional testing that has been going on from Monday until now which should be generating a significantly higher daily number of additional positive cases.



People are slow to admit they were wrong or were taken in by the hype. There is a segment that will rationalize with the " better safe than sorry" mantra without considering the impact the overreaction had on the economy and the future of our country.

I said at the beginning of this they'd never swallow their pride and admit they were wrong. I stand by that comment.


Character is not developed in moments of temptation and trial. That is when it is intended to be used.
Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: Fattyfireplug] #3121113
05/11/20 05:30 PM
05/11/20 05:30 PM
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 30,910
Clanton, AL
Out back Offline
Grumpy Old Man
Out back  Offline
Grumpy Old Man
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 30,910
Clanton, AL
Originally Posted by Fattyfireplug
Originally Posted by bill
Originally Posted by abolt300
Originally Posted by woodduck
Any original and updated numbers on US cases?


Original model numbers I saw projected that 150,000,000 (basically half the US population) would get it in the US and the death rate would be around 3%, if I'm remembering correctly. Nobody is showing the new models that I can find.

I know that Gov Andrew Cuomo was saying, as late as Monday morning, that they expected over half the NY state population, or 10,000,000 New Yorkers, to come down with it (Note: ten million projected cases and they are sitting 37,000 cases right now so they have a ways to go) Then Monday he said that "the number of new cases daily" was doubling every 2 days, then on Tuesday he said it was doubling every 2.7 days then this morning, he said "It appears almost too good to be true but the numbers now show it is only doubling every 4.7 days." It is definitely slowing down based on that data. Especially given the massive ramp up in additional testing that has been going on from Monday until now which should be generating a significantly higher daily number of additional positive cases.



People are slow to admit they were wrong or were taken in by the hype. There is a segment that will rationalize with the " better safe than sorry" mantra without considering the impact the overreaction had on the economy and the future of our country.

I said at the beginning of this they'd never swallow their pride and admit they were wrong. I stand by that comment.

They're still claiming, "if we hadn't quarantined it woulda been worse".
BULLSCHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


My opinions and comments are my own. They do not reflect the position or political opinions of Aldeer or any of the Aldeer administration.
Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3121117
05/11/20 05:41 PM
05/11/20 05:41 PM
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 23,925
Clarksville, TN /Greenville, ...
bill Offline OP
Freak of Nature
bill  Offline OP
Freak of Nature
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 23,925
Clarksville, TN /Greenville, ...

[/quote]


People are slow to admit they were wrong or were taken in by the hype. There is a segment that will rationalize with the " better safe than sorry" mantra without considering the impact the overreaction had on the economy and the future of our country. [/quote]
I said at the beginning of this they'd never swallow their pride and admit they were wrong. I stand by that comment.
[/quote]
They're still claiming, "if we hadn't quarantined it woulda been worse".
BULLSCHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! [/quote]

Who? To my knowledge our local Karen clan hasn't been heard from since it became obvious they got taken for a ride.


"Political debate: when charlatans come together to discuss their principles"
-
Bauvard
Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3121120
05/11/20 05:47 PM
05/11/20 05:47 PM
Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 12,918
Old Florida
Geno Offline
Booner
Geno  Offline
Booner
Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 12,918
Old Florida
I almost forgot - the Japanese have a 10% higher smoking rate than the US as well. That should have been a detriment to their covid death numbers but has not happened. Apparently, level of physical fitness trumps an adult lifetime of smoking where this particular bug is concerned.


Whoever is happy will make others happy too. Anne Frank
Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3121166
05/11/20 07:16 PM
05/11/20 07:16 PM
Joined: Jun 2013
Posts: 3,003
Columbia, SC
CeeHawk37 Offline
10 point
CeeHawk37  Offline
10 point
Joined: Jun 2013
Posts: 3,003
Columbia, SC
...and yet our great leaders are still restricting private businesses even though the numbers continue to not add up. Gyms here in S.C. will reopen on the 18th at 20 percent capacity. 20FREAKINGPERCENT?!?! Why in the hell are these idiots restricting the capacity of a gym to a higher level than the damn WalMart? Folks can wipe down their equipment after use at the gym. WalMart sure as heck don’t wipe down the cheap Chinese made chit they sell after Karen and her five crotch goblins run down the aisles touching chit. While I’ll have to wait until 2021 to vote against our governor, you can bet your ass I’ll throw as much as I can spare to his primary challenger. Oh and I’ll be voting against that sorry turd Lindsey Graham this primary as well. Slimy elitist bastards want to dictate what the little people can and can’t do.

Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3121185
05/11/20 07:39 PM
05/11/20 07:39 PM
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 10,326
Alabama
W
whack-n-stack Offline
Booner
whack-n-stack  Offline
Booner
W
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 10,326
Alabama
It ain’t worth hiring back the dishwasher at a restaurant for 20% of the tables being open.

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