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Velvet
by swamp_fever2002. 05/02/24 06:48 PM
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11 registered members (BC_Reb, JohnG, oldknight, BAR1225, sloughfoot, Ron A., Bronco 74, Holcomb, Hammertime7v2, Jotjackson, hallb),
732
guests, and 0
spiders. |
Key:
Admin,
Global Mod,
Mod
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Re: The numbers were a tool
[Re: bill]
#3081397
03/26/20 10:43 PM
03/26/20 10:43 PM
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sgtred
Unregistered
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sgtred
Unregistered
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Ain't no doubt that folks will need an economy to come back to. Waste of time if there isn't one. Kinda a catch 22. I figure , none of us would do any better a job if we were in charge. Lot different ,when your top dog, real easy to armchair QB, and the worldwide Intranet has created billions of armchair QBs , College coaching experts etc
Last edited by sgtred; 03/26/20 10:44 PM.
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Re: The numbers were a tool
[Re: bill]
#3081400
03/26/20 10:55 PM
03/26/20 10:55 PM
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Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 19,681 Pelham
Ben2
Old Mossy Horns
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Old Mossy Horns
Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 19,681
Pelham
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And your point is? Do nothing. Do a little, it's all a conspiracy ? I thought I've been very clear on my position but maybe I haven't. I advocate for rapid and accessible testing for all symptomatic people plus those at highest risk. No large gatherings,, such as sporting events . Ask those at highest risk to self quarantine for as long as the threat is significant. Basically, follow the South Korean model which has been highly effective. Do those things and get the country back to work and the economy back rolling , immediately. We went from 3 5% unemployment to 30% almost, overnight. We can't allow models and projections to destroy the economy and our way of life when the numbers don't support it. The model that started the hysteria has been proven wrong and the architect has adjusted the UK projected number of dead down from 500k to 20k. Why would anyone take them seriously, ever again? It's my belief that the virus is real, be it man made or not. It's also my belief that, as with the model I already mentioned, that numbers have been manipulated and fabricated to incite panic and further agendas. in my opinion, that's being proven out, right now. This exactly
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Re: The numbers were a tool
[Re: bill]
#3081410
03/26/20 11:06 PM
03/26/20 11:06 PM
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Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 10,326 Alabama
whack-n-stack
Booner
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Booner
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 10,326
Alabama
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Viruses will always be around and there’s nothin we can do to stop them, I have enjoyed less people on the roads.
Last edited by whack-n-stack; 03/26/20 11:06 PM.
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Re: The numbers were a tool
[Re: ]
#3081559
03/27/20 08:02 AM
03/27/20 08:02 AM
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Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375 Jasper, AL
joshm28
14 point
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14 point
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375
Jasper, AL
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I get you. Scientist and statisticians tend to overreact. Make judgements based on data. In my my opinion data alone never tells the whole story. Data driven decisions are based in one thing ,and never take into account the ramifications that the decisions made will have in other things. For every action ,there is a reaction. Sometimes it take years to see it. This was no different. Just your standard lurching back and forth that always happens. No such thing as a perfect world, perfect govt, or perfect people. Statisticians didn’t over react to this. Or most didn’t. I would consider myself in this group. I made my predictions based on real data in other countries and what it did in the US the first 10-12 days. I’ve been saying for a week that we I’ll peak early next week in daily new cases. I still stand by that prediction. You are correct in data never tells the complete story. However if one uses the correct data set then one can make fairly accurate predictions.
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Re: The numbers were a tool
[Re: bill]
#3081571
03/27/20 08:11 AM
03/27/20 08:11 AM
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sgtred
Unregistered
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sgtred
Unregistered
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When you say we will peak early next week ,are you referring to the country as a whole.
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Re: The numbers were a tool
[Re: ]
#3081583
03/27/20 08:26 AM
03/27/20 08:26 AM
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Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375 Jasper, AL
joshm28
14 point
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14 point
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375
Jasper, AL
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When you say we will peak early next week ,are you referring to the country as a whole. Yes. The daily NEW cases is still increasing exponentially. Sometimes next week it will peak and start a downward trend.
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Re: The numbers were a tool
[Re: bill]
#3081584
03/27/20 08:26 AM
03/27/20 08:26 AM
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Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 10,375 coffee county
goodman_hunter
Booner
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Booner
Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 10,375
coffee county
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ol bill was right again. To tell the truth i was on the verge of freaking out, until you started posting. Although i didnt agree, i considered the fact the you was probably right, which helped me relax, a little.
For without victory, there is no survival
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Re: The numbers were a tool
[Re: joshm28]
#3081590
03/27/20 08:31 AM
03/27/20 08:31 AM
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sgtred
Unregistered
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sgtred
Unregistered
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When you say we will peak early next week ,are you referring to the country as a whole. Yes. The daily NEW cases is still increasing exponentially. Sometimes next week it will peak and start a downward trend. So in Alabama will it peak next week
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Re: The numbers were a tool
[Re: joshm28]
#3081597
03/27/20 08:37 AM
03/27/20 08:37 AM
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Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 23,925 Clarksville, TN /Greenville, ...
bill
OP
Freak of Nature
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OP
Freak of Nature
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 23,925
Clarksville, TN /Greenville, ...
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I get you. Scientist and statisticians tend to overreact. Make judgements based on data. In my my opinion data alone never tells the whole story. Data driven decisions are based in one thing ,and never take into account the ramifications that the decisions made will have in other things. For every action ,there is a reaction. Sometimes it take years to see it. This was no different. Just your standard lurching back and forth that always happens. No such thing as a perfect world, perfect govt, or perfect people. Statisticians didn’t over react to this. Or most didn’t. I would consider myself in this group. I made my predictions based on real data in other countries and what it did in the US the first 10-12 days. I’ve been saying for a week that we I’ll peak early next week in daily new cases. I still stand by that prediction. You are correct in data never tells the complete story. However if one uses the correct data set then one can make fairly accurate predictions. Serious question. How can you approximate a peak, and downtrend, without knowing when patient zero, occurred? We have no way of knowing the true origin date, in this country.
"Political debate: when charlatans come together to discuss their principles" - Bauvard
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Re: The numbers were a tool
[Re: bill]
#3081603
03/27/20 08:42 AM
03/27/20 08:42 AM
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sgtred
Unregistered
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sgtred
Unregistered
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So I must ask, because I truly don't know. Based on the changing of the imperial college guys numbers and the numbers y'all think were more accurate all along, what would you do differently ,than what has been done.
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Re: The numbers were a tool
[Re: bill]
#3081605
03/27/20 08:43 AM
03/27/20 08:43 AM
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sgtred
Unregistered
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sgtred
Unregistered
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Also, my understanding of these models ,they were based on if nothing is done.No mitigation, just let it ride.
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Re: The numbers were a tool
[Re: bill]
#3081607
03/27/20 08:45 AM
03/27/20 08:45 AM
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Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375 Jasper, AL
joshm28
14 point
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14 point
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375
Jasper, AL
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I get you. Scientist and statisticians tend to overreact. Make judgements based on data. In my my opinion data alone never tells the whole story. Data driven decisions are based in one thing ,and never take into account the ramifications that the decisions made will have in other things. For every action ,there is a reaction. Sometimes it take years to see it. This was no different. Just your standard lurching back and forth that always happens. No such thing as a perfect world, perfect govt, or perfect people. Statisticians didn’t over react to this. Or most didn’t. I would consider myself in this group. I made my predictions based on real data in other countries and what it did in the US the first 10-12 days. I’ve been saying for a week that we I’ll peak early next week in daily new cases. I still stand by that prediction. You are correct in data never tells the complete story. However if one uses the correct data set then one can make fairly accurate predictions. Serious question. How can you approximate a peak, and downtrend, without knowing when patient zero, occurred? We have no way of knowing the true origin date, in this country. I ran the numbers based on a known number of 150 confirmed cases (by country) it’s definitely not perfect but when you look at each countries numbers it shows a definitive trend of 22-25 days to peak of new cases. Plot everything on a logarithmic graph and it shows the virus is slowing down as far as new cases per day, in both the global numbers and individual country numbers. It’s an educated guess but the trends don’t lie. The outbreak hit different countries at different times so there’s plenty of data out there to base this on. Look at the logarithmic graphs for each country and you will see what I’m talking about
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Re: The numbers were a tool
[Re: joshm28]
#3081611
03/27/20 08:48 AM
03/27/20 08:48 AM
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Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 23,925 Clarksville, TN /Greenville, ...
bill
OP
Freak of Nature
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OP
Freak of Nature
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 23,925
Clarksville, TN /Greenville, ...
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I get you. Scientist and statisticians tend to overreact. Make judgements based on data. In my my opinion data alone never tells the whole story. Data driven decisions are based in one thing ,and never take into account the ramifications that the decisions made will have in other things. For every action ,there is a reaction. Sometimes it take years to see it. This was no different. Just your standard lurching back and forth that always happens. No such thing as a perfect world, perfect govt, or perfect people. Statisticians didn’t over react to this. Or most didn’t. I would consider myself in this group. I made my predictions based on real data in other countries and what it did in the US the first 10-12 days. I’ve been saying for a week that we I’ll peak early next week in daily new cases. I still stand by that prediction. You are correct in data never tells the complete story. However if one uses the correct data set then one can make fairly accurate predictions. Serious question. How can you approximate a peak, and downtrend, without knowing when patient zero, occurred? We have no way of knowing the true origin date, in this country. I ran the numbers based on a known number of 150 confirmed cases (by country) it’s definitely not perfect but when you look at each countries numbers it shows a definitive trend of 22-25 days to peak of new cases. Plot everything on a logarithmic graph and it shows the virus is slowing down as far as new cases per day, in both the global numbers and individual country numbers. It’s an educated guess but the trends don’t lie. The outbreak hit different countries at different times so there’s plenty of data out there to base this on. Look at the logarithmic graphs for each country and you will see what I’m talking about Thanks.
"Political debate: when charlatans come together to discuss their principles" - Bauvard
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Re: The numbers were a tool
[Re: bill]
#3081687
03/27/20 10:23 AM
03/27/20 10:23 AM
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Joined: May 2015
Posts: 6,363 On the X
TickaTicka
12 point
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12 point
Joined: May 2015
Posts: 6,363
On the X
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Viruses don't like that bright sunshine (UV). Get out in it.
Public Land Owner
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Re: The numbers were a tool
[Re: bill]
#3081775
03/27/20 12:18 PM
03/27/20 12:18 PM
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sgtred
Unregistered
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sgtred
Unregistered
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Am I going to get an answer on when Alabama peaks ?
Last edited by sgtred; 03/27/20 12:18 PM.
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Re: The numbers were a tool
[Re: ]
#3081779
03/27/20 12:23 PM
03/27/20 12:23 PM
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Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 25,154 Guntersville, AL
IDOT
I am Cornholio
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I am Cornholio
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 25,154
Guntersville, AL
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Am I going to get an answer on when Alabama peaks ? 2+ more weeks
If you’re a common sense person, you probably don’t feel you have a home in this world right now. If you’re a Christian, you know you were never meant to.
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