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Mortality Rate #3062174
03/09/20 02:43 PM
03/09/20 02:43 PM
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375
Jasper, AL
J
joshm28 Offline OP
14 point
joshm28  Offline OP
14 point
J
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375
Jasper, AL
2019-2020

Flu - 6.9%
Coronavirus 3.4%

Mortality rate has to be above 7% and some change to be considered an “epidemic”

I’m twice as likely to die from the flu. Yes it’s a small issue, yes it will burn itself out over the next couple weeks. No it’s not gonna cause mass amounts of deaths here in the US. Yes the media is blowing it out of proportion. No the Democrats can’t help but try and politicize it.

Did I miss anything?

Re: Mortality Rate [Re: joshm28] #3062181
03/09/20 02:51 PM
03/09/20 02:51 PM
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 24,835
Buc-ee’s Beach Express
leroycnbucks Offline
Freak of Nature
leroycnbucks  Offline
Freak of Nature
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 24,835
Buc-ee’s Beach Express
Was at Costco in Montgomery yesterday and they have been out of hand sanitizer for three weeks and are almost out of toilet paper. So I was wondering what democratic owns the hand sanitizer plant.


Proud Army and ALNG veteran
God Bless America!
Re: Mortality Rate [Re: joshm28] #3062184
03/09/20 02:58 PM
03/09/20 02:58 PM
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 10,326
Alabama
W
whack-n-stack Offline
Booner
whack-n-stack  Offline
Booner
W
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 10,326
Alabama
WHY TOILET PAPER?!?!

Re: Mortality Rate [Re: joshm28] #3062186
03/09/20 03:00 PM
03/09/20 03:00 PM
Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 20,137
Northport, AL
GomerPyle Offline
Impatient Stinky Britches Wearin’ Off-Roadin’ Guru
GomerPyle  Offline
Impatient Stinky Britches Wearin’ Off-Roadin’ Guru
Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 20,137
Northport, AL

When I looked it up this morning, the Flu mortality rate, in the US, was 0.08% (16,000 deaths out of 19,000,000 cases). In other words, you are 50 times more likely to die from Covid-19 than from the "normal" flue.......That's from ABC News, who was citing the CDC. Where did you get your figures?

Last edited by GomerPyle; 03/09/20 03:05 PM.

There are 3 certainties in an uncertain world:

1. All Politicians Are Liars
2. All Gun Laws Are an Infringement
3. Taxation Is Theft
Re: Mortality Rate [Re: joshm28] #3062194
03/09/20 03:13 PM
03/09/20 03:13 PM
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 3,696
Camden, AL
S
SwampHunter Offline
10 point
SwampHunter  Offline
10 point
S
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 3,696
Camden, AL
Why toilet paper? Because when we all get quarantined at home, we still gotta poop.

And it's not helping that Auburns fans are stocking up for a big run in the NCAA tournament.

Re: Mortality Rate [Re: joshm28] #3062195
03/09/20 03:13 PM
03/09/20 03:13 PM
Joined: Jun 2014
Posts: 6,901
Shelby Co, AL
CatHeadBiscuit Offline
14 point
CatHeadBiscuit  Offline
14 point
Joined: Jun 2014
Posts: 6,901
Shelby Co, AL
Life long mortality percentage - 100%


"Arguing on the internet is like playing chess with a pigeon. You may be good at chess, but the pigeon is just going to knock all the pieces down, take a crap on the table, and strut around like its victorious."--Anonymous
Re: Mortality Rate [Re: joshm28] #3062196
03/09/20 03:13 PM
03/09/20 03:13 PM
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375
Jasper, AL
J
joshm28 Offline OP
14 point
joshm28  Offline OP
14 point
J
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375
Jasper, AL
World Health Organization. I believe both numbers I referenced are world wide

Re: Mortality Rate [Re: joshm28] #3062198
03/09/20 03:16 PM
03/09/20 03:16 PM
Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 20,137
Northport, AL
GomerPyle Offline
Impatient Stinky Britches Wearin’ Off-Roadin’ Guru
GomerPyle  Offline
Impatient Stinky Britches Wearin’ Off-Roadin’ Guru
Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 20,137
Northport, AL
Originally Posted by joshm28
World Health Organization. I believe both numbers I referenced are world wide


Worldwide numbers aren't really an accurate estimate of my and your odds, because a lot of those are 3rd world countries with little to no real "healthcare" and flu is a much bigger deal there than it is here, where it's, at most, a mild inconvenience.

The truth is, based on real numbers here in the US, 50x more people (percentage-wise) will die from this corona virus than from the flu


There are 3 certainties in an uncertain world:

1. All Politicians Are Liars
2. All Gun Laws Are an Infringement
3. Taxation Is Theft
Re: Mortality Rate [Re: GomerPyle] #3062202
03/09/20 03:25 PM
03/09/20 03:25 PM
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375
Jasper, AL
J
joshm28 Offline OP
14 point
joshm28  Offline OP
14 point
J
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375
Jasper, AL
Originally Posted by GomerPyle
Originally Posted by joshm28
World Health Organization. I believe both numbers I referenced are world wide


Worldwide numbers aren't really an accurate estimate of my and your odds, because a lot of those are 3rd world countries with little to no real "healthcare" and flu is a much bigger deal there than it is here, where it's, at most, a mild inconvenience.

The truth is, based on real numbers here in the US, 50x more people (percentage-wise) will die from this corona virus than from the flu


The truth is we really don’t know what the mortality rate is of either. No two organizations are reporting the same numbers for flu or CV. But if use the roughly 3.5% mortality rate for CV it would still have to DOUBLE in order for it to be considered an epidemic. I’m not discounting that it’s bad for those with immunosuppressed people because it is. But....it’s NEVER as bad as US media tells us it is. There’s 600 cases in the US (active). I’ll start worrying when that number is above 10k or more. Otherwise I’ll wash my hands and do what I always do to try and keep from getting the flu.

Re: Mortality Rate [Re: joshm28] #3062205
03/09/20 03:25 PM
03/09/20 03:25 PM
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 10,666
Santa Rosa/Conecuh
hallb Offline
Booner
hallb  Offline
Booner
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 10,666
Santa Rosa/Conecuh
They don't know the actual mortality rate of the Wuhan Virus b/c they don't actually know how many people have it or how many people have had it and just stayed home sick and healed up fine or that got treated for the standard flu. The fact is, there just isn't enough data about Wuhan Virus to be throwing around any comparisons at this point b/c the amount of data is NOTHING near what we have for the standard flu.

Re: Mortality Rate [Re: joshm28] #3062206
03/09/20 03:25 PM
03/09/20 03:25 PM
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 10,542
A
abolt300 Offline
Booner
abolt300  Offline
Booner
A
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 10,542
The whole problem with the Covid mortality rate is that the only people being currently tested are those that are exhibiting debilitating symptoms or have been in contact with a known carrier or someone who is. There are probably millions of people worldwide that actually have it. Difference is that nobody is extrapolating the cases like they do with the flu.

I doubt seriously that there have actually been 19,000,000 people (6% of the US population) that were actually flu tested postitive at a doctors office. Wife's office sees roughly 350-400 patients a week and they've had only 4 people test "flu positive" since 1/1/20 (granted that's just one location but using that same 6% it should have been closer to 240 postives). More than likely, in the flu calcs they take the number of know reported positives and then extrapolate that figure based on historical data to determine the estimated # of cases. If the denominator for any calculation is unrealistically small, you get a much larger/higher result in the % calculation.

You can bet there are exponentially more actual Covid infections than just the 100,000 cases reported. Heck, over half the ones that are actually tested and test positive, due to being in contact with a known carrier, are said to exhibit no symptons whatsoever or very mild. How many people are there like that, worldwide, that have it but arent getting tested because they dont feel bad enough to go to the doctor, dont have access to a doctor,or dont think anything about it? I bet the number is huge and I bet its already all over the place.

Re: Mortality Rate [Re: joshm28] #3062209
03/09/20 03:27 PM
03/09/20 03:27 PM
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 21,786
USA
R
Remington270 Offline
Freak of Nature
Remington270  Offline
Freak of Nature
R
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 21,786
USA
I think the mortality rate for influenza in the US is far lower than 7%. If it were that high you would know a few people that died from it.

Last edited by Remington270; 03/09/20 03:27 PM.
Re: Mortality Rate [Re: whack-n-stack] #3062210
03/09/20 03:28 PM
03/09/20 03:28 PM
Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 21,445
HSV AL
jmudler Offline
Freak of Nature
jmudler  Offline
Freak of Nature
Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 21,445
HSV AL
Originally Posted by whack-n-stack
WHY TOILET PAPER?!?!


Isaiah 5:20 Woe to those who call evil good and good evil, who put darkness for light and light for darkness, who put bitter for sweet and sweet for bitter.
Re: Mortality Rate [Re: Remington270] #3062212
03/09/20 03:31 PM
03/09/20 03:31 PM
Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 13,891
Mobile, AL
S
SouthBamaSlayer Offline
Gary's Fluffer
SouthBamaSlayer  Offline
Gary's Fluffer
S
Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 13,891
Mobile, AL
Originally Posted by Remington270
I think the mortality rate for influenza in the US is far lower than 7%. If it were that high you would know a few people that died from it.

It’s about 0.1% annually.

Re: Mortality Rate [Re: Remington270] #3062213
03/09/20 03:31 PM
03/09/20 03:31 PM
Joined: Aug 2018
Posts: 3,884
Montgomery, Alabama
B
bama1971 Offline
10 point
bama1971  Offline
10 point
B
Joined: Aug 2018
Posts: 3,884
Montgomery, Alabama
Originally Posted by Remington270
I think the mortality rate for influenza in the US is far lower than 7%. If it were that high you would know a few people that died from it.


What do you know about mortality? 🙄

Re: Mortality Rate [Re: Remington270] #3062214
03/09/20 03:31 PM
03/09/20 03:31 PM
Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 20,137
Northport, AL
GomerPyle Offline
Impatient Stinky Britches Wearin’ Off-Roadin’ Guru
GomerPyle  Offline
Impatient Stinky Britches Wearin’ Off-Roadin’ Guru
Joined: Aug 2014
Posts: 20,137
Northport, AL
Originally Posted by Remington270
I think the mortality rate for influenza in the US is far lower than 7%. If it were that high you would know a few people that died from it.


Yep, posted above it's 0.08%


There are 3 certainties in an uncertain world:

1. All Politicians Are Liars
2. All Gun Laws Are an Infringement
3. Taxation Is Theft
Re: Mortality Rate [Re: joshm28] #3062216
03/09/20 03:33 PM
03/09/20 03:33 PM
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 21,786
USA
R
Remington270 Offline
Freak of Nature
Remington270  Offline
Freak of Nature
R
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 21,786
USA
Don't get me wrong, influenza is bad news. Go to any ICU. By saying Covid-19 is "just like the flu", that doesn't make me feel better. But let's not fudge the numbers. 7% mortality would be catastrophic.

Re: Mortality Rate [Re: joshm28] #3062223
03/09/20 03:45 PM
03/09/20 03:45 PM
Joined: Mar 2018
Posts: 16,836
Banana Republic
jb20 Offline
Old Mossy Horns
jb20  Offline
Old Mossy Horns
Joined: Mar 2018
Posts: 16,836
Banana Republic
What healthy male goes to doc for flu? I know I never been


They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.
Ben Franklin
Re: Mortality Rate [Re: joshm28] #3062224
03/09/20 03:46 PM
03/09/20 03:46 PM
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 2,070
Alabama
strikeu Offline
8 point
strikeu  Offline
8 point
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 2,070
Alabama
didn't we just hash this out last week with everyone pissed off and someone owing ALDEER some money??

Re: Mortality Rate [Re: jb20] #3062227
03/09/20 03:49 PM
03/09/20 03:49 PM
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 10,326
Alabama
W
whack-n-stack Offline
Booner
whack-n-stack  Offline
Booner
W
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 10,326
Alabama
Originally Posted by jb20
What healthy male goes to doc for flu? I know I never been


I'd go or call to get a Tamiflu prescription

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