Many like myself are expecting a major real estate crash, especially in large commercial real estate (office buildings in the middle of big cities). Today the Wall Street Journal is reporting that the AT&T building in St. Louis just sold for $3.6 million, it sold for $205 million in 2006.
I'm sure At&T was able to cover the paper loss and they got their money out of it as part of the larger company, but that is a huge phuckin depreciation. I bet that $3.6 is damn close to the annual tax and light bill for that building. Its a lot bigger than pictures can give it justice, I've stood in its front door. https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1778520467898560550

Big loss

AT&T will just raise rates. No problem.

My late sis worked in the upscale commercial office and corporate world. Interior designer for some of the major players. Before Covid things were slowing. Just to get an idea she worked with Coca Cola redesign of their corporate offices and museum to the tune over $140 mil. I talked with her often and could get a feel for how things were rolling. At er busiest she had over 100 working under her. Her last smear of work she had 3 under her. During Covid she mentioned no one is traveling for business and that’s in my wheelhouse. Lots of things were already changing with technology but Covid kinda was the coup de gras. Her husband is a building superintendent over large warehousing build and remodels. Amazon and similar facilities and warehouses. He's still swaying a new reassignment.


Personally into no there are many bubbles about to pop. Commercial real estate may be the catalyst

I would Hate to own an office building right now. People working on just paper work jobs only need laptops now.

RSA owns the second largest office building in NYC. I hope Bronner is keeping up with this. I'm not sure there is anything to do other than ride it out.

Once Covid hit and businesses realized that they could adjust to almost everyone working from home the corporate real estate market was a dead man walking. Our company spent about 10 million renovating our office space and then Covid hit and we all got sent home. I've only been in the office about 4 times since march of 2020. One of those times was my retirement party yesterday. I think now most people are being asked to come in the office 3 days a week.

Irish Jr. left Amazon and went to Tik Tok for a big raise. What's interesting is that they feed all their computer network gurus breakfast, lunch and dinner at the office. They get different local restaurants to cater in meals every single day. He's only it required to go into work 2 days a week, but he goes in 4 days a week, just because the food is so good and it's all free. When he told me that it hit me like a light bulb that they probably do it to encourage more worker participation at the office. Regardless it's a nice perk for a bunch of young, single computer gurus.

Back to the real estate bubble that is building... We're sitting on a bunch of cash right now because we have been expecting a real estate market adjustment like what happened in about 2008. We will probably look for some investment opportunities if that happens. Right now housing prices are ridiculous, so I'm not even looking at anything until there's some kind of drop. It has to be coming.

The adjustment is going to be almost exclusively on the commercial side with just a little on the residential side mostly in blue states and in overbuilt metropolitan areas such as NY, St Louis, LA, etc.. I dont see any adjustment on new residential construction or raw land. In the SE, new homes are and will continue to be needed (with the huge influx of both big companies and people leaving the big cities and blue states and moving south). Nobody that currently owns a home and has it financed at 3% is about to put that home on the market because they cant get a better deal anywhere else. With all the existing homes pretty much locked down, and the current rates way higher than what all those are financed at, the inventory required to cause a downward adjustment simply will not be available to feed price adjustments on the residential side. Only way there will be one on the residential side is if, the economy gets so bad that large portion of the population all lose their jobs and can no longer afford to pay their mortgages. If it gets to that point, the country has way bigger problems.

It’s coming.
The Democrats will continue to get a free ride (that is a form of buying votes).
The politicians (wealthy) are debt free and have no worries.
The working class supports the Democrats and the politicians.

The working class will soon realize that they are basically indentured servants for the politicians and the Democrats.

I work for a living. I’m taxed on the money that I make. Where do those tax dollars go? To feed democrats and pay politicians.

I’m fortunate to not have a mortgage BUT I must pay taxes or lose my property.

I’ve represented individuals who live in public housing (paid by tax dollars) have a free cell phone (paid by tax dollars) utilities were $7.00 per month, have an EBT (eat better tonight) card and represented by me (paid by the State) for failure to care for their child properly. The boyfriend got a job at a grocery store and since he had an income (minimum wage) they were going to lose their benefits. So he quit his job so that they could continue to have a free ride. With his job they couldn’t afford groceries much less a place to live.

Our government wants it this way.

The AT&T Tower in Birmingham ( the original South Central Bell building) is 700,000 sq ft and sold for $31 million to be converted in to mixed use condo's, apartments and retail. That's $44 a sq ft it sold for.

BIL mentioned similarities when working in Texas. They were building amenities buildings to keep workers working. Amazon built a city within a distribution center so that workers could go to the dentist, doctor, stylist or barber and daycare, anything needed basically to keep workers happy and working. Like you mentioned food services from A to Z. He said you can’t quite grasp it without seeing it.

I know several workplaces were doing away with daycare services before covid. Now they’re bringing it back and then some to keep and maintain staff. I talked to a good friend and he says you have to really coddle the workforce now if you need them. It’s not just a salary or decent wage but other lenient factors too.

It’s not just a big city problem. This was ushered in with the Covid shutdowns.

Don’t let a problem go to waste ring a bell. They saw a situation at best and ramped up production of change. They got higher pay scales and all sorts of progressive issues addressed and now they’re try to keep rolling out more and more problems.

That’s the plan!