I thought y’all would like to read this. I sent several emails in 2018 after they changed our season dates/ bag limits. Here is Chucks response to me. I wonder what his thoughts are now since it’s been proven that pushing the season back doesn’t have any positive effect on turkey populations?

That email is Just FOS!

How do you know that the data taken within the TN study is accurate and/or conclusive?

Thats the next response to your question. Mark my words.

I have that question. All Ive seen is the abstract and I have questions about their model selection criteria. Their model selection (at first glance) used a mixed methods seemingly using bayesian AIC but also including p-values which used to be a big no-no. I just skimmed it quick and Im working on a couple hours of sleep. But, I'd need more than an abstract to base my opinion on.

I think I'll send him an e-mail and ask him to fire himself. That would be the appropriate thing for him to do. After 25 years of doing a chitty job you'd think he'd have been fired by someone else... long ago. But I don't guess you get fired up there that's how the Gubberment works... .we all know it.

I will bet the farm that I could completely destroy their "predictive model" in about 5 minutes.... 100% guarantee it. What a joke and a copout.... oh, see we've got this model some academic dumbass made-up and....

Chuck you are a POS buddy.

I mean look at Biden…

The DCNR Commissioner CAN overrule a decision by the advisory board. He has that veto power but I only recall it being used once, by Barnett Lawley, and that was 20ish years ago.

The WWF director and his staff only make recommendations to the advisory board, answer questions, try to explain something. So, no, the director can't overrule the board. He's right about that.

But the Commissioner can. He just never does.

Whole lot of bs right there. When they move it to April, I'm gonna go ahead and move mine back to March 15th for good and no longer concern myself with what they suggest. This comes from a guy who has never knowingly broken a game law for what its worth.

Was that at the same time that the Butler gal from Scottsboro was on the board?

Mash the download and you get this:
https://trace.tennessee.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=10876&context=utk_gradthes

Craig Harper is one of the most respected wildlife researchers and professors in the southeast. I doubt he let much slip by on this kids masters thesis, especially on such a controversial topic.



This is the end product of the millions of dollars and 5 years of work Chuck has us pay for. I have had discussions with several professors and professionals in the southeast and the consensus is this may well be the most failed turkey research and model creation in the history of turkey research.

https://www.outdooralabama.com/site...keys%20in%20Alabama%20Final%20Report.pdf

Personal favorite quotes:
"based on discussions with ADCNR experts,"
" Experts reviewed recent estimates of vital rates from Alabama and surrounding states and were asked to enumerate their individual beliefs of the relative effect of the management actions on each rate. The group then reviewed and discussed their individual beliefs, updated them, and the mean estimate was used. After the effects of individual actions (i.e. reducing bag limits and changing seasons) were determined by consensus, the combined effects of actions were estimated using a similar method.
"Experts reviewed data elicited by ADCNR from hunters in 2015-2016 (ADCNR 2015, 2016), and estimated that reducing the bag limit from 5 males to 3 males per season would reduce the overall harvest rate by 9%, because 9% of hunters reported harvesting more than 3 turkeys."
"Thus, estimates of the effects of later opening dates and closed seasons on turkey recruitment rates are based solely on expert judgement."
"Because there are few records of turkeys incubating nests prior to 25 March and nest predation operates independently of hunting disturbance, expert consensus was that α would increase by 11%, if the opening date of the spring hunting season is moved 10-days later from 15 March to 25 March, and by 25%, if the spring hunting season is closed."
"We estimated the current population density by assuming the density of breeding females. Turkey harvest management was 15 per mi 2 and increasing the estimated population density until the population trend met the expectations of our team of experts (i.e., declining at approximately 1%/year, λ = 0.99)"
"The experts we worked with concur with many other turkey biologists that spring seasons with later opening dates will result in more productive turkey populations."
"The experts we consulted believed that turkey productivity was density-dependent, and that current populations were below equilibrium values"
"We are thankful for the input and support from the members of the Alabama Turkey Management Committee: S. Barnett, B. Bobo, J. Brock, M. Brock, C. Conring, J. Easterwood, K. Gauldin, J. Glover, J. Makemson, K. Marable, R. Metzler, A. Pritchett, A. Silvano"

This was a significant portion of the data they inserted into their "model". Personal opinion
I find it appalling that they let this get published
The Grand study was SOOO impactful that a Graduate thesis published just 3 months ago and all about turkey limits and reproduction (Assessing the Effects of the Spring Hunting Season Start Date on
Wild Turkey Seasonal Productivity and Hunter Behavior) never notes, mentions nor cites this multi million dollar study!

This line here says it all, We just made it up! Lol

“We estimated the current population density by assuming the density of breeding females”

Mmm Hmmm.

Since when has hardcore turkey hunters reported that last bird in their limit?

Wished I had a dollar for every time I’ve heard that last bird is the hardest to kill. I contend kills are underreported.
Heck back when I was wearing them out folks looked for my vehicle. I messed up bringing birds by the hunting store and showing em off. Sam R Murphy got wore out form folks up here. TVA lands I hunted got more pressure when my vehicle was seen on the side of the road. I then resorted to a flat bottom boat and it soon became the turkey masters on that creek.

That’s why turkey killers underreport these days.

That's a good email. Based on the current population uptrend across the state it seems like their research model may have been accurate. If not accurate the delay of the start of season and the seeming increase in population (just calling it an increase based on the people I talk to seeing noticably more turkeys) lining up may have just been random luck but with the last few good hatches they will be able to say their theories are working currently.

Chuck said “ I want the season to start in April as the biological data suggests which would be best for the resource.”

This was in 2018. Since then we have multiple studies and research projects that refute this claim. The biological data suggests that moving season and reducing bag limits does not have a positive impact on turkey populations

Southwood7, what "studies" are you referring to that refute this claim? Inquiring minds want to know. I haven't seen any such studies.

I believe this is the right link. If not, I’ll look again. But yes, there’s more studies than just this one. Can’t remember now who did the one I read before this one. Someone on here will know the others.


Here you go

Reply to that email and ask him to read over it and update his failed thinking.

lol…that arrogant know it all will never admit he screwed us hunters out of 10 days of prime hunting!! He bought the turkey docs BS and took it to the bank!!