I guess after last week everybody’s wanting to leave this subject alone because I haven’t seen a thread for this week. Understandably so. I was just curious what some of y’all weather heads think about Thursday and some of the models they’ve put out.

LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0356 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021/

Thursday night through Tuesday.

Model disagreement continues for Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night regarding the northward expanse of the warm sector and
eventual convective evolution. However, since our forecast area is
toward the southern half of the threat area, significant severe
weather appears likely regardless of the outcome, particularly
near and northwest of I-59. Early day showers and storms are
expected to impact areas along and north of I-20, where an
effective warm front may reside. There is a decent chance this
boundary will retreat toward our far northern areas and possibly
much farther north depending on the strength of the incoming
elevated mixed layer and response to the approaching upper-level
trough. A confluence zone trailing to the southwest into
Mississippi should be the focal point for vigorous convection by
early afternoon. The presence of MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, 0-6 km
shear of 65-75 kt, and very strong 0-1 km shear, will be very
supportive of tornadic supercells and bowing segments evolving out
of this initially disorganized activity. Multiple long-track
strong tornadoes could occur along and northwest of I-59 within
within the climatologically favorable zone of 570-576 dm 500 mb
heights. The worst case scenario includes the potential for a
"violent" (EF-4) tornado in the event of the most favorable storm
evolution. Later in the evening, the severe weather threat should
extend south and east of I-59 but to a lesser extent as the main
dynamics shift quickly toward the Ohio Valley.

Our forecasters say it is lining up like last week and will depend on how long the first storms hang around in the morning. If they hang around, we’ll be in better shape..if they clear out quick, we’re screwed as new storms have longer to build with no competition from opposing fronts.
As usual, they’re saying the same path as last week from Hattiesburg NE through Bama with multiple spin ups probable along the path.

Once again, the forecast shows Cullman as the bullseye.

Yaaayyy!!!

MS State has already moved to remote learning for tomorrow afternoon, closed campus after noon and cancelled campus activities.

Grab ahold, time to ride the broncs.

They are preaching gloom and doom. Take it seriously. Remember April 2011.

Just checked out Spanns weather blog.....


Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) values are topping out off the charts around 10 to 12 in the northwestern quarter of Central Alabama. While not clearly shown on the supplied graphic, somewhere in that sector the values max out at 15. A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1. These values are much higher than what we saw on the models for the last severe weather event just one week ago.

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0248 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021/

Thursday and Thursday night.

An east-west band of showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing
north of I-20 Alabama early Thursday morning. This activity will
be elevated on the north side of a surface warm front. Despite
strong forcing associated the warm air advection, mid level lapse
rates will warm quickly as the mid levels warm and saturate. Some
elevated storms possible, but nothing severe expected with the
initial round of activity associated with the warm front. The air
mass will quickly destabilize across west Alabama after sunrise
with surface based CAPE values reaching 1500-2000 J/kg by 9 AM,
and 2500 J/kg by Noon. Due to the rapid increase in instability
and 0-6km bulk shear values near 50 knots, decided to include
isolated severe storms during the morning hours along and west of
I-65. The main action will happen Thursday afternoon and evening
as the main forcing associated with the upper level short wave
trof approaches Alabama. All severe parameters favor supercells
with strong long track tornadoes. The area most likely for severe
storms is the northwest counties, where low level shear and instability
will be maximized. Earlier models were showing a fairly rapid
decrease in instability and forcing after sunset, but latest
model runs are keeping stronger storms later into the evening.
Still believe the severe threat will be mostly gone by midnight
Thursday night, but certainly conditions will remain favorable for
severe storms with rotating supercells throughout the evening
hours, especially along and north of I-20

Just got thru moving vehicles around in case of hail, got everything covered, kinda. The schools have been canceled tomorrow in my area, hope it is for naught, but hunker down.

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 450 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021/
Today through Friday.

So far this AM we have had widespread showers with embedded
thunderstorms as it spread NE across C AL. The activity has been
elevated and while we are watching for any rogue storms, severe
activity during the early morning hours should be marginal at
best until the warm front makes its way northward later today. We
have increased the severe threat in the NW half of C AL for this
afternoon and evening. This probably doesn`t come as much of a
surprise as this system is ramping up to be significant there with
strong tornadoes a possibility. The SE half of C AL is a
different story. While we have a marginal threat this AM for
portions of C AL, for the rest of the afternoon and evening,
parameters are much lower in the SE counties with convection not
as likely there until later this evening. After the current
convection currently on the radar pushes N, we should have a
somewhat lull in activity in the SE.

In contrast, by around 11am, our warm front should be to the N of
the area. Models suggest some cellular activity will likely pop
up in the NW first. MUCAPE will not be lacking, but will be
highest in the west for this afternoon. 0-6km bulk shear will be
in ample supply across C AL. However, 0-1km shear will be
decidedly higher in the NW. Although amounts vary, guidance is in
agreement decreasing this low level shear significantly after 6z
as the bulk of the instability skirts to the NE. This will be not
only with the front moving across, but our negatively tilted upper
shortwave that is expected to be over the Arklatex ~18z today
expected to race off toward IL/IN by midnight tonight. With the
bulk of the activity in the SE counties expected for later this
evening, this greatly decreases the chance for severe weather for
them S of the I85 corridor. This is the reason for the sharp risk
gradient in our severe graphics. Timing is pretty similar to what
we had yesterday except possibly starting in the NW at 11am
instead of noon. The front is expected to make progress after
midnight with the risk for TS in the SE counties much lower for
the day on Friday with lower dew points moving in behind the
front.

Keep an eye on it today.

Sun’s been out for a while, here...that’s not good

Yup. They've already said this morning that "North AL has not had this high of a risk factor since 2014" If they had said 2011, I was going to migrate my family to Arkansas for the night.

My ol lady went and bought 5 helmets last week we good here.... Stay safe ya'll its gonna be a looong day.....

It's cranking up. Pay attention.

Nader near Eutaw.

And moving towards Moundville

Here we go again