This is some deep stuff here………

This density dependance thingy would seem to be defined by “space” correct??……….. Predator populations and their behavior being what dictates the size and shape of that space by them basically giving the landscape a structural grade like beef of Choice, Prime, Select, etc…….The predator density is not really tied to the turkey population though…..the turkey population plays a small role with what feeds and props up the overall predator numbers……That hinges mostly on rodent and small mammal populations as well as things like farming practices… So the amount of pressure pushing back on turkey growth doesn’t really have anything to do with turkeys…… ……the amount of predator pressure is defining the amount of space turkeys can successfully reproduce within though. Its like a balloon that’s trying to expand but there’s an opposing force pushing back against the expansion…….and the amount of pressure of that opposing force is tied to our mouse and “corn” management.

That period after stocking of grow, grow, grow and then recede was turkeys filling up the USDA Prime space……then into some of the Choice until they reached an equilibrium with what was at that time the current predator population……which may have seen a slight spike in numbers with the additional alternative prey source available and turkey numbers came over the peak like mentioned.

Keep in mind we’re talking about a time right before yotes really moved in to the extent they are now, people trapped more coons back then, and the avian predator numbers were lower. So the turkeys likely expanded and occupied all of the Prime and much more of the Choice and maybe even some of the Select space at that time……much more so than they do now because we’ve steadily increased the pressure of that opposing force of predators since and the “space” has shrank………. starting with any Select and then Choice until the new equilibrium was reached…..keeping in mind that the pressure isnt the same everywhere because the factors influencing rodent populations is not the same. Some places may only be Choice habitat they may not have as much opposing force.

Its gotta be density independent factors right??......If were calling predators a density independent factor…..I mean really we’re talking about rodents being the main driving force that’s dictating populations, no?? I don’t know…….I’m not even sure I fully understand the question here really… …It’s funny that the first video starts out with……”Explain to everyone in layman’s terms………” then followed by a big whooooshing sound of air blowing right over everyone’s head lol lol …….Like whuuuuut????

What no one is talking about and should be is grass and soil management……For example, when a quail plantation style of management that’s supposed to be producing 25% grass is producing 75%......that extra 50% ends up equating to extra predator pressure……..It increases that opposing force. It’s a structural issue that could be addressed

Starting at the 16:00 mark Dr. Collier is sorta getting at the same idea.......He's saying to look at managing for habitat that makes it harder for predators to hunt....but I'm saying to manage for habitat that produces less of them to begin with..,...We're currently managing for maximum predator loads in many situations. Legalized baiting just ramped it up another notch.

Dr. Collier also made a comment….I believe it was in the density dependent video…..that was spot on and exactly what I was trying to say in the Trapping Incentive thread…….Dr. Lashley had said something to the effect about “If we could get folks to go all in yada yada…….”…….and Dr. Collier replied…….”Aren’t we pretty much there??......Aren’t the people who want to manage for turkeys already doing so??”………

Exactly!.......Sure there are some opportunities out there to create new habitat but you’re talking about like 1% or less of the landscape or something of that nature……There arent massive amounts of property where we’re going to change the landscape by introducing fire unless you’re talking about a paradigm shift in cattle management to patch burn grazing or something like that. This idea that we’re gonna fix things through new fire isnt going to make any substantial impact……Yes, there are some opportunities but not at a significant scale

What if we concentrated our efforts on fixing the things we’re already messing up with grass and soil??

I took this picture one day while I was tracking a deer……This field is probably 80% grass growing in productive blackbelt soil……. We’re producing way too much grass……..we’re producing too many rodents……..too many predators……..the physical structure is wrong……..the carbon/nitrogen balance is wrong………the soil likely has low soil organic matter %.........where is a turkey likely to nest in a situation like this??.......Answer: the edge………..where is a predator likely to pass through??......Answer: the edge (firebreak)……..

Again, why don’t we fix some of the things we’re already messing up?? A bunch of 2K, 5K and 10K landowners grouped up in a spot can make you be easily content and a little biased to what is actually occurring.

I have really been milling over what Dr. Collier is talking about with nest predation. He’s saying that a lot of nest failure are really from the hens being run off the nest by something…. The numbers that are given in these podcasts say that on average roughly 20% of the hens are killed each year but roughly 80% of the nests fail. That means that a lot of nest failures result in a failed nest but not a dead hen…….its more likely that it was a flushed hen.

So what impacts the frequency of “flushing”?.......I’d say that first and foremost you don’t want your hens nesting close to the firebreaks and roads……Yotes may not eat a lot of turkeys but they may flush hens frequently in some locations. I would think that you would want a very usable interior of a stand away from these high traffic travel zones. Same goes for SMZ's.....The closer they nest to SMZ's the more likely they are to be impacted by racoons. That probably a big dynamic at play.

I think a lot of this is also going to hinge on soil management and moisture retention. Turkeys seem to be searching for a certain arrangement of plant structure to nest in…….If the topsoil is poor in the “upland” areas then soil conditions might not support the plant growth needed to create this structure. When that happens then the turkeys are going to be more concentrated toward the bottoms/SMZ’s where there’s increased moisture to produce and support the plant growth that they’re looking for. This lack of being able to spread out across the landscape like they want to likely increases nest predation. Studies like the one talked about on Ft. Bragg where over 2/3’s of the turkeys nested in the bottoms show this playing out.





I think Dr. Collier may also be downplaying the impact of racoons. He tells a story about how this turkey hen in one of their studies defended her nest several nights in a row from a possum but a possum is different than a big boar coon and its definitely different than 2 or 3 racoons in a group…….. I’ve seen them running in groups of 4 on several occasions. If they ran around grouped up like that it would pose a real problem for a nesting hen….especially if the hens were mostly grouped up along the riparian buffers.