If coons are responsible for 30% of nest mortality which is a low end estimate…..some studies show them as high as 50%.......and you take out 6.5% of the coon population……Then that would equate to a roughly 2% increase in average nesting success rate
Yea, thats not the way statistics work
And that is also the problem with something as complex as nest predation and predator removal. Again I am a BIG proponant of nest predator control..... on managed land..... intensive......NOT subsidized by taxpayers.
One study that is as good as you can get is this one
https://getd.libs.uga.edu/pdfs/thornton_ryan_p_200308_ms.pdfINTENSIVE predator removal looking at quail nesting success. On one treatment site they removed a predator per 10 acres and saw nest success increase from 35% to 53%, pretty good but one predator per 10 acres removed! Removing 100,000 coons would roughly equate to one coon removed per 230 acres... drop in the ocean.
The other treatment site removed a predator per 13 acres the first year and one predator per 7 acres the second year and saw nest success go from 45% to 50%. Very little change for a HUGE effort.
https://www.talltimbers.org/images/pubs/QuailCallsp05.pdf#:~:text=From%202001%20and%202003%2C%20Wildlife%20Services%20personnel%20removed,average%2036%25%20to%20a%203-year%20average%20of%2058%25.
Most of these places are removing at least a predator per 20 acres or less, usually with a trap per 20 acres or more for months at a time and typically 70% of the catch is coons and possums. This is also with intensive managed habitat for birds, a high density of birds and there is measurable results.
All this intensive predator removal and they STILL have pretty high predation rates!
