here is the latest on the severe weather that is possible wednesday march 17th

this from the NWS BMX office in calera



Wednesday.

We expect potentially three opportunities for severe weather on
Wednesday. The first being the northward advancement of the warm
front during the morning hours along with the coastal/marine
airmass advecting northward into the area as low-level winds
increase off the surface. Storms may initially be more elevated in
nature, posing more of a hail risk but are expected to become
more rooted toward the surface as moisture increases further from
the south. A second and more concerning round will potentially
develop from midday through the mid afternoon time frame as the
environment further destabilizes while the low-level Jet
approaches from the west. Instability values look to exceed 2000
J/kg with 0-1 km storm-relative helicity values over 150 m2/s2
from most depictions. The moist low-level environment also
supports lower cloud bases further increasing the risk for
circulations aloft to reach the surface. Finally, the Pacific
Front will act as a focusing mechanism for severe convection along
and potentially ahead of the front as it advances east across the
area Wednesday evening and into the night.

As far as uncertainties go, there is high confidence in an
abundance of wind speed and directional shear with more than
sufficient hodograph curvature for rotating storms. A robust Low-
Level Jet and sufficient 0-6 km bulk shear values will favor
organized severe convection. Instability is a bit more
questionable though the environment will be warm, moist and
unstable in the lower levels as a certainty. If low-level
advection is stronger from the south, that will help to further
increase the magnitude of instability as will be the case if we
see breaks in the cloud cover through the morning hours on
Wednesday for the convective potential in the afternoon and
evening. A question also arises on the magnitude of a capping
inversion in the warm sector airmass from mid morning through
early afternoon and whether instability can sufficiently build
before being released convectively. The exact placement of the
surface features along with magnitude of advection and cap
strength will be assessed better with the higher-resolution
guidance we will have access to as we get closer to the event
time.

Overall, all modes of severe weather are expected from tornadoes,
some potentially significant, damaging straight-line winds and
large hail. Severe convective risk will persist across the
forecast area all day Wednesday into Wednesday night. Despite the
loss of daylight in the evening and into the overnight hours
Wednesday night, more than sufficient dynamics are expected to
compensate for gradual decreasing low-level instability. There
will be heavy rain potential through this period as well,
especially when accounting for activity ongoing today and Tuesday.
Ground conditions are dry and vegetation is out of dormancy so
these factors will help to limit flooding concerns but some
localized flooding may result, especially in low-lying and poor
drainage areas.

It is strongly emphasized that now is the time to prepare for
multiple convective hazards. Ensure you have multiple reliable
methods to receive weather warnings, have your emergency supplies
ready and know where to go when severe weather approaches your
area.

The modern day alley

Hmmmm that's the only model i've seen that didn't have Washington & Mobile county in the Enhanced risk zone...

Let's pray this is not a repeat of 2011...

here ya go james
this is from the mobile / pensacola office that serves those counties not served by the one in bham

UPDATED DAY 2 FROM STORM PREDICTION CENTER!!!

here is the latest from the storm prediction center please read carefully

10/fur 👍

and the latest from birmingham weather service



part of the forecast discussion from birmingham for all of central alabama

and for you southerners

I hope this doesn't turn out to be a significant storm pattern, but its not looking very good.

Fantastic, the wife has a dr. appt. in Birmingham tomorrow in prep for a surgery next week. We might have to take the truck.

That’s definitely getting more concerning. I just wonder if that first wave that comes through Wednesday afternoon will maybe cool things down a bit and put a damper on the 2nd wave that seems to be the biggest threat.

Not looking good. Pay attention for the next day and change.

All I keep hearing is that we'll get some harsh weather, but y'all will catch the brunt of it tomorrow night. Stay safe, ladies and gents!

For you wather gurus, is Huntsville gonna get as bad as Birmingham? I see concern on weather.com but nothing like Bhammedic is posting for the Huntsville area.

guess I need to go ahead and get the basement office cleared out just in case....ughhh

Yes N AL is gonna be bullseye

I'm working today and glad I get off in the morning. Its just got that feeling that it may get bad

I wish it would get to us a lil quicker those midnight storms catch people off guard