Originally Posted by goodman_hunter
Originally Posted by abolt300


Let me start by saying I am taking this serously and social distancing and I'm not a naysayer. It is a highly contagious virus and it kills the crap out of older and immuno-comrpised persons. NO Doubt. Statistically speaking though, it is actually too early to be seeing the effects of the shut down and social distancing results that are now being reported. Based on CDC data and statistics, you can have it 14 days before showing symptoms, generally once symptons show, it is 5-8 days before it gets bad enough to go to the hospital and then another 5-20 days in there. So lets take the average of those, Lets say you show first symptoms at 8 days, then 8 days later, your go to the hospital and are tested and admitted, then another 5-20 days in the hospital. That's basically a 30 day course for the virus using avg times and we havent been on lock down for 30 days yet. Why are hospital admissions already leveling off? Statistically, we should not start seeing any drop in the numbers until the middle of next week. NY went on lockdown on March 20, today is April 9th. and they started showing the decreasing trend in hospital admisions 3 days ago as reported by Cuomo and NYHD. So only 15 days since lockdown and 15 days into a 30 day virus cycle we've already managed to flatten the curve?




the part in green should't be figured into the equation to figure out why admissions have gone down, only the part in red.


Excellent point Goodman. I failed to complete that sentence, it should have read that admissions, intubations and ventilator usage/need have all gone down per Cuomo and NYHD. In which case that green part would be applicable.

Last edited by abolt300; 04/09/20 11:15 AM.