Originally Posted by bill
Originally Posted by joshm28
Originally Posted by sgtred
I get you. Scientist and statisticians tend to overreact. Make judgements based on data. In my my opinion data alone never tells the whole story. Data driven decisions are based in one thing ,and never take into account the ramifications that the decisions made will have in other things. For every action ,there is a reaction. Sometimes it take years to see it. This was no different. Just your standard lurching back and forth that always happens. No such thing as a perfect world, perfect govt, or perfect people.



Statisticians didn’t over react to this. Or most didn’t. I would consider myself in this group. I made my predictions based on real data in other countries and what it did in the US the first 10-12 days. I’ve been saying for a week that we I’ll peak early next week in daily new cases. I still stand by that prediction. You are correct in data never tells the complete story. However if one uses the correct data set then one can make fairly accurate predictions.



Serious question. How can you approximate a peak, and downtrend, without knowing when patient zero, occurred? We have no way of knowing the true origin date, in this country.


I ran the numbers based on a known number of 150 confirmed cases (by country) it’s definitely not perfect but when you look at each countries numbers it shows a definitive trend of 22-25 days to peak of new cases. Plot everything on a logarithmic graph and it shows the virus is slowing down as far as new cases per day, in both the global numbers and individual country numbers.

It’s an educated guess but the trends don’t lie. The outbreak hit different countries at different times so there’s plenty of data out there to base this on. Look at the logarithmic graphs for each country and you will see what I’m talking about