And yet the experts continue to say there's no rhyme or reason for tracks based on terrain, water features, etc.. I think that's BS, especially when you see them move in the same general areas repeatedly each year.


Y'all stay safe down south.

There is no second wave. Settle down

There should be four waves of storms today, this one is just the first and its the weakest.

The cluster moving into the Brundidge/Clio area looks to be getting its act together into something very serious.

Dr. Tim Coleman did his dissertation on geography and tornado formation/track/strength. I think the general conclusion was there isn't enough data for solid statistical evidence, but there might be a lot of truth to the old sayings about physical features causing certain areas to be prone to storms.

Right? I've lived near/in Andalusia for a little over 40 years, never known a tornado to actually touch down in town, but over all those years there have been...say, maybe 4, that have come close enough to touching down that they caused damage on the ground. All of them within 100 yds of each other.

This is correct.

I did a bunch of work on Dr. Coleman's river house. Talk about a guy that is eat up with weather stuff! I'm interested in severe weather also, and if I had the time, I believe he would've talked all day long about why tornadoes do what they do. He had just finished a big study with people from Oklahoma and was trying to explain all that stuff to me. In other words, I think he was speaking in Chinese. Pretty cool guy to talk to though.

The atmosphere is reloading reloader.

Very cool. He's a pretty big fisherman too if I recall correctly.

Rich Thomas is about to call a possible rotating storm for Montgomery. Here is his live stream. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niB8rAVJ3hM&feature=iv&src_vid=1XWpcA9m7wI&annotation_id=channel%3A58cf65bb-0000-2855-9c5a-94eb2c18e58e

Some of the afternoon storms won't necessarily be in "waves", per se. They'll be discreet cells that will fire in the warm sector, and ahead of the front. The second actual "wave" will be along the passage of the front.

Dew points are struggling to rise in far North Alabama but the air from B'ham south is de-stabilizing rapidly. Anywhere from Gadsden down toward Montgomery, and to the east, is looking to be a bad area this afternoon.

When speaking to people who have no understanding of proper terminology - waves is the correct term. It means more to come.

Discreet cells that are able to grab a boundary or have better hodo/wind profile are very likely to be a threat. The rest will most likely be severe but not very life threatening.

Although......a high is probably coming soon.

How many tornadoes have ever hit a house or business that you lived in or owned?

I'm at 2.

A tornado wiped about 1/3 of the town I live in away in 2010. That one didn't hit my house, but it did do $176,000 worth of damage to the business that I now own. From 2009-2012 tornadoes touched down on the road that I lived on, every year. The one that hit our house, hit in the mid 80's.

So when the weather gets bad, I dang sure pay close attention.

Mesoscale Discussion 0440
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0943 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

Areas affected...Portions of AL/GA/SC

Concerning...Outlook upgrade

Valid 051443Z - 051645Z

SUMMARY...Portions of the states of AL/GA/SC are being considered
for an Outlook upgrade -- though the details are still being
analyzed. A very notable dry bias is apparent in the latest model
guidance, and observational data and previous model runs are being
heavily referenced in Outlook preparation.

DISCUSSION...GPS PW data are exhibiting a low bias by at least 0.5
inch from parts of AL into GA, which has influenced initialization
of the latest numerical weather prediction guidance. Per
coordination with the Weather Prediction Center, it appears that
related initialization is causing substantial dry biases in model
guidance -- extended through the Day 1 forecast period. With an
inland influx of rich moisture feeding ongoing intense supercells in
southern AL (with dewpoints into the middle 70s), and the
around-16.6-g/kg mean mixing ratio per LIX 12Z sounding, and around
1.5-inch PW per Atlanta and Birmingham 12Z soundings, it is evident
that rich moisture and related strong buoyancy does indeed extend
inland. As such, observational data and previous model runs will
play a major role in the consideration for a High Risk upgrade, as
the dry bias has influenced the latest model guidance. While an
Outlook upgrade is possible, it is not certain.

..Cohen/Marsh/Hart.. 04/05/2017


ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON 31618535 33008620 33798288 34428087 33757972 32558092
31538309 31618535

I used to like James Spann. I lived in Sylvan Springs during the 98 Tornado outbreak. No doubt he saved lives but, I think all the praise went to his head. He is very arrogant when it comes to weather these days. Puts down other forecasters when it doesn't line up with him.

When are the other storms supposed to move through?

off and on, all day, until a cold front moves in/through this evening.

I made it to Shelby county driving through some spotting thunderstorms but it is noticeably cooler here and not as muggy than South Alabama was. So I hope that's a good thing.

This is the second day this week I've had to stay home with the kids and according to the radar there in nothing moving in to Selma from the south or west. I need to be working and not babysitting. Y'all be safe where there is bad weather though.