Originally Posted By: Rebelman

Originally Posted By: abolt300
Not also that your lease will include an automatic 5% increase clause each and every year with Westervelt. They have some very good properties but with annual increases, once you keep that property for 5 years and invest the time and money into establishing a good herd and nice place, you'll be paying $15/acre that 5th year. Compounding effect catches up with you quick if you try to do something long term. Keep it for 10 yrs and it will have almost doubled in price to $19.03/acre.


So what. You can bet inflation will be around 3%, annually. So you are paying a premium of 2% for a recreational property. I bet those homes on the gulf coast increase the same 5% or more each year.


You are correct. However, houses are financed over a long period of time at a fixed payment amount and are generally a safe investment. Hunting club leases are an annual expense and last time a checked, had to be paid up front. A person's disposable income to be spent on things like hunting leases is a function of total net income after taxes. There aren't many companies right now with a guaranteed 5% annual salary raise for their employees. Point being, I dont think anyone staying in the same job honestly expects their salary to increase 75% over the same 10 year period particularly if they are a mid to senior level employee. If your lease goes up 75% and your disposable income stays the same or matches inflation, you'll end up in a position where you can no longer afford to pay more and more each year for your lease. At some point, lease prices are going to have to plateau. They cannot continue to go up with no ceiling. Using your analogy, the housing market crashed and homes were worth a fraction of what they were in 2005 and 2006. Lease market might be in for the same run if y'all continue to jack the prices out the roof. It's not there yet but judging from all the complaints about lease prices in the past two years, the timber companies might be closer to their crash than they think. By the way, I'm friends with some Westervelt guys and they had to drop a fine lease because it went up 5% annually and Westervelt wasnt giving them 5% annual salary raises. After 10 years, the disposable income gap became to great to justify keeping it. It simply became unaffordable to them and their families. Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered. Lease rates have been at the trough for a long time. Downward adjustment will come at some point. There are only so many doctors and lawyers that are willing to pay $15-$20 acre. It's already forcing more and more people out of the lease market and forcing more clubs to take in more members on the same amount of land. It's coming. Trust me on this one.

Last edited by abolt300; 04/28/16 08:17 AM.