Aldeer.com Forums Alabama Deer Talk Aldeer General Forum Question for Cowboy

Or anyone else who fools with cows
Looks to me that it would take 1.2 million head of cattle to produce 300,000 metric tons of ground beef. Is my math mathing?

Grok says:
Roughly 1.3–1.5 million head of cattle (order-of-magnitude estimate; range ~1–2 million depending on assumptions), if treating the volume as equivalent total boneless/retail beef yield per animal. Far more if limited only to typical trim/ground-beef portions from each carcass.

michiganfarmnews.com

300,000 metric tons = 300 million kg ≈ 661 million pounds.

hoosieragtoday.com

Key yields (U.S./typical commercial figures; actuals vary by breed, finish, sex, and processing):Average dressed (hot carcass) weight recently ~880–900 lb (live weights often ~1,400+ lb; dressing percentage commonly ~60–64% for fed cattle).

beefmagazine.com

Boneless, closely trimmed retail/packaged meat (steaks, roasts, ground, etc.): typically ~40% of live weight or ~55–70% of carcass weight, or about 400–550+ lb per animal for a typical finished steer/heifer (e.g., ~470–500 lb from a 1,200 lb animal; ~500–570 lb from larger ones).

howmuchblog.com

Using ~450–500 lb of usable boneless beef per head gives ~1.3–1.5 million head for the full 661 million lb.Caveats for ground beef specifically:In normal fabrication, ground beef (from trimmings + lower-value cuts) is often only ~15–40% of take-home yield (~60–200 lb per animal, commonly cited around 65–190 lb depending on cut sheet and leanness).

cattledaily.com

Ground beef is typically a blend: fatty trim (~50% lean) from fed steers/heifers + leaner trim (~90% lean) from cull cows/bulls (and imports). One fed animal might contribute ~150 lb of 50s trim; matching lean often requires additional animals or imports.

wlj.net

If grinding everything usable from each animal, the lower end of the range applies. If using only typical ground portions, the number of head rises substantially (potentially 3–10× higher). Imported product for “ground beef” is often lean trimmings or processing beef rather than finished consumer ground product from whole animals.
Other variables: cow vs. steer/heifer yields differ (cows lower dressing % and muscle); bone-in vs. boneless; fat trim level/leanness of the grind; and cooler shrink/cutting losses.

These are approximate industry averages from extension services, USDA data, and beef production sources. Exact numbers depend on the specific animals and how the beef is processed into ground product.

That’s a lot of cattle some country is about to process, unless there’s more to the story

More unknown toxic fillers to the story is what it means.

I really wish I could find a local source for grassfed. I have decided this year that any deer I process is getting beef fat added going forward.

Historically, imported beef accounts for approximately 9% to 10% of the total U.S. beef supply, though tighter domestic cattle inventories have recently pushed that figure higher toward roughly 17%

One of my last steers weighed 1189# and yeilded 440# of actual packaged meat.

I don’t do grass fed typically because everybody falls in love with the idea of it, buys one and talks about how bad it sucks. I will raise total grass fed if someone want to buy the cow and have me finish it that way as I’m sure several others on here would.

I do raise my beef pork and lamb chemical and antibiotics free. If I wind up having to use antibiotics on an animal, it gets tagged and goes to the sale barn.

All our animals are finished on high protein, locally grown grain




As to the topic

Rational producers know, and other people should, that a couple million cows ain’t gonna just spring up outta the ground and weigh 1000 pounds next week or next month. From conception to finished your looking at a 2 year process. This other countries don’t have a few million extra cows standing around incase Americans need a few.
Beef prices are gonna come down because at some point supply catches or passes demand, that’s the only reason that will happen.

I think this shortage isn’t really what it appears to be in a lotta ways anyway, not all but a lot. More and more producers are cutting the middleman out and selling locally even ranches as big as the 6666 are pushing direct sales, Taylor Sheridan has even started opening restaurants to move his own beef for that ranch as well as the 5 other smaller ranches he owns. Myself and several others 150-600 head operations didn’t take any calves to sell barns this year, most people I know below 100 didn’t either.
Personally I think that’s playing a big roll in the big 3 having to close plants. When you talk about the 6666’s alone that 10-12000 head a year. When you think of thousands of smaller operations taking 1-500 head the feed lots and commercial packers are gonna see a “shortage”. When they are producing less product with the same massive overhead, the buyer feels the “shortage”

I refuse to sell grass finished beef. It tastes like crap, and even if you tell customers before hand, they think you sold them bad beef. You have to keep in mind theres grass fed- grain finished beef, that taste great and is more nutritious. Most calves sent to a feed lot never set foot on grass after being weaned. Most ranch raised beef is on grass for the first year to year and a half. Then finished with grain for last 90 days

So where’s this beef coming from in your opinion?

Did anyone watch that last video I posted in the Greg Judy thread??.....When I watched it just made me wonder how many folks are getting that involved with the numbers…..

I firmly believe, that the whole beef shortage thing is coming from the big forign processors and lobbist. They are intentionally keeping prices high to open the foreign beef markets. Its not the beef thats cheaper, it the labor costs and operating costs that are cheaper in foreign countries, as it not regulated like it is here. If i had to guess, the king made a deal with one or all, the big four, that was if you lower the prices for a little while , i dont care where you get it from or what it is. They will get it from multiple countries , process it in one place like brazil, and say its from there.i know none of this for a fact, just my opinion!

I refuse to buy foreign meat or fruit(except bananas) . Buy my beef and pork from Cowboy when he has it.

Sounds reasonable.

Not saying you’re wrong, just disagree. There is a real shortage and has been last couple years. Young folks inherits farms, farms are sold and houses go up. Auburn/Opelika proves that pretty good I think. Also the last 10 years the cattle country, and cattle states had been roller coaster. Droughts, floods, wildfires, snow and freezes, etc. that has knocked numbers back. But most of all, folks just don’t have cows anymore much. Look at farmland while driving down the highway, not many cows, a lot of growed up land around as well. When feeder calf prices hit $3.00 a lb folks sold out too. We sold every calf we owned in 2024, does time ever we didn’t hold back any heifers. Held back 30 last year and 65 this year. High cull cow prices made folks cull cows out as well. Bad bags, teeth, feet etc, they got culled. It takes a 28isj months from a time a heifer is born till you sell a calf off her. Thats a long gap, to hold over as well. Just my thoughts

Herd size is definitely down, and for all the reasons you said. But it didnt happen over night. Beef prices absolutely spiked overnight. That didnt just happen

Just googled it, average price ground beef during covid- $4.63
Average price now- $6.89. Covid was when all the packing houses closed.

They went up 30 to 50 cents a year since 2020. Topped out and now there falling back down about the same rate. They didn’t just jump $2.50 in a year. It was a gradual climb the last 5 years.

Canada imports 100,000 tonnes of beef. So that should free up some prices here!

Prices was starting to tip down back in June some, sure it’s gonna drop the prices a touch, but it’s not the end of the day for most cattleman I know. End of the day. It’s Just farming! If it was a get rich easy deal everyone would do it.

I bought a bull out of Canada this past spring. Red Charolais, guess I’m part of the problem too. 😂