I am guilty of misjudging deer pretty often. I have killed some very nice looking three year olds. and Honestly, I do not know a way around it.
In the places I hunt(99% public land) it is VERY thick, I can see a rack coming through the palmettos and 9 times out of 10, the buck will only get in a hole where I can see his entire body for a second or two. I can either spend that time sizing him up or shooting at him.
I have made the mistake in both directions. they have got in a hole and I've taken the shot only to later regret it, AND conversely I have let them get by me and thought "oh dang that was a nice one I should've taken him. I really don't know what to do differently. because both mistakes feel equally bad
We have all been guilty of that. Which is why I argue cameras are actually a net positive for growing big deer, even though it seems the majority believe it’s the opposite. Yes they can help pattern and kill a big buck, but more importantly they let a mature buck hunter know what is on the property and identify shooters, non-shooters, and the target buck(s) worth holding out for. Going in blind, you are much more likely to make a rushed decision to kill the first decent buck you see.
And my argument is the last case scenario is better than the targeted removal of the higher end young deer, which is what is happening on more properties than not. They’re great if everyone is on board. If one rogue actor decides to use them beside you it can get bad quick.
Camera saved one three year-old that was running a doe in front of me this year. Without a camera, he would not have made it. That said, I would have been proud of him if I would’ve shot. If you are a weekend hunter like me and are targeting four-year-old and older bucks, you need to be prepared to go multiple years in between shot opportunities. I have only shot two in the last eight years and I am fine with that.
That last part is true. I'm in that category, and it's been 5 years since I've killed a buck. Now, to be fair, in that 5 years I've hunted with my son more than not (and put him on a few good deer, including one that would have met my standard two years ago), and I've also shot does myself for meat. End of last year my son finally started hunting by himself, so I'm back hunting more by myself. Even so, I've passed two deer this year already that would have been considered decent bucks for our land, but would not have aged where I want them to be. I'm fortunate to hunt in a club with a lot of acreage and pretty good deer population, so if a few younger deer with good potential get killed by others, it doesn't ruin anything for me.