Aldeer.com Forums Alabama Deer Talk Serious Deer Talk Forum Charts and Graphs

Could have been working. There are a whole lot of worse things than chicken and sausage gumbo!

So is that a good or bad thing ?

He can't make up his mind...

stay tuned

Big shake up in the numbers this week...........

Cold weather and peak rut causes that.

Lol.. no kidding

This weekend and next week will be brutal…. On the deer

Not nearly as brutal as it would be if we had good weather for next weekend. This coming weekend is historicly one of the best weekends in southern blackbelt and southern part of the state. Currently calling for basically 100% chance of rain Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

1/20 Update

Bucks


Does

What are these things called "deer" that you speak of ? We don't have any, remember ?

Looks like this theory just got blown out of the water.......

Nope CNC, you're just doing your normal thing and ignoring anything that doesnt match what you think, or in most cases, haven't thought about at all, due to your bias and tunnel vision. The week in question that relates to the statement above was the week from 1/5 -1/11. You conveniently didnt produce any charts covering that week. Instead, you waited 9 days after that week ended (9 days with pretty good weather too) to produce the new chart showing a big increase in kills. Lots has happened since the 11th in the southern part of the state. The weather was decent all that following week and weekend and after the crappy week before, lots of hunters hit the woods hard. The rut has now kicked off in most of the southern part of the state and deer are moving good. You just waited until you had 16 days of additional kills to make the new chart so that the change looked more impressive. Correcting your games and gaslighting gets monotonous at times but it's always fun. It's pretty much the same situation where you first attempted to show that the weather was the same for the second weekend of Jan, the previous year, and that got debunked in about 20 seconds using your own link that you provided. So, with the kills way up in the southern part of the state, are we going to run out of deer in the southern part of the state this weekend, or will we still have a few for the final kill off to occur the last weekend of January?

No idea what you’re talking about…….There have been weekly updates since the first of the season……There were updates on 12/30……1/6…….1/13……and now 1/20

The numbers appear to back a narrative of increased acorn production in the northern parts of the state. Next couple years should be jam up up north. I hunt close to the delineation line and can say our acorn production was not excessive.

I missed your 1/13 update. Went back and found it at the bottom of a page. Thank you for bringing it to my attention. It proved exactly mine and other's point about the weather. Kills in most of the southern part of the state should've jumped up sharply the week ending 1/13, with the rut starting to kick off, but instead of jumping up, they stayed flat due to the weather not being conducive to killing deer or hunting. The numbers for that week pretty much reflected the same amount that they were already behind, year to date, from your 1/6 chart. We got some good weather the following week, for the week ending 1/20, and all of a sudden a ton of deer start hitting the ground. Here's a snapshot of the SW counties buck harvest comparison by week proving my point.
County 1/6 1/13 1/20
Wilcox -5 -4 +7
Marengo -1 -6 -16 I think there is some bad data in your chart on this one
Choctaw -5 -4 -5
Clarke -17 -7 +2 Probably bad data again on the 1/6 chart
Washington -13 -12 -5
Mobile -4 -2 +3
Baldwin -4 -3 +6
Escambia -1 -4 +4
Monroe -5 -7 +9
Conecuh -1 -7 +9

See how it works? 1/6 all those counties were behind on buck harvest, mostly due to the acorn crop issue and less bucks being killed earlier in the season, and the rut had not kicked off. Things really start to pick up and bucks start walking hard and are very visible and in turn, killable in all these SW counties starting the second week in January. The rule of thumb is from Jan 10th on. Bad weather that entire second week and especially that second weekend, and low and behold, not many are killed (when they normally would have been) so numbers didnt move much in either direction and in some cases actually fell further behind. Some were killed, because they were available and still doing their thing and the hard core guys that got out and braved the rain and weather, saw them moving, and killed some. Next week, week ending 1/20 had some clear cooler weather and look at what happened. A portion of that big jump should've occurred that previous weekend. Instead, it did not. If it wasnt the weather, the food hasnt changed since everything is already on the ground, the only other reason that it could be, is that the rut must have kicked off later this year. But alas, that theory doesnt hold water because we know from fetal studies that the rut happens at the same time every year, regardless of the weather. So if the weather did not impact the number of hunters in the woods and thus the harvest numbers, how do you explain what your chart shows. You'll see the same thing happen again this weekend with rain predicted from Wed through Sunday in these same counties. Then next week with cold clear weather, you'll see the harvest numbers jump back up. It's not rocket science, it's human nature. People are lazy by nature and dont like to be uncomfortable or inconvenienced. If the bad weather had occurred mid week, that second week, instead of on the weekend when most people actually hunt, you'd have seen substantially higher harvest numbers on your 1/13 update. Simple as I can make it.

That’s not correct either…….Looking back at year’s past the numbers for the southern counties do not begin to really jump until the 20th………On 1/13 most southern counties still have 50-60% of the annual buck harvest yet to go

Exactly, the biggest jump always occurs right around the 20th and MLK day, but they start catching up quickly, starting pretty definitively, the second week in January as the bucks start searching for those first does in all these SW counties. But hey, dont believe me, or anyone else that has hunted deer all over the southern part of the state for the past 35-40 yrs. Certainly dont believe Matt Brock about anything. He's just a big buck slaying machine, that manages 10s of thousands of acres professionally, and has a degree in wildlife biology, and 20 years of hands on experience growing and managing deer all over the state. You're right CNC, I'm just not sure anymore what you're right about. I honestly dont know if we are running out of deer, have too many, dont have enough, are killing too many, have too many fragmented properties, have too many major highways in the state keeping deer from moving around and influencing genetic diversity, if out of state hunters are causing most all of the problems, if too many residents are hunting, if big farm and big insurance are bribing the DCNR to keep the harvest high to eliminate deer completely, or potentially something else that you actually think is causing catastrophic issues with our deer herd. Then there's the issue of the game check harvest numbers, whether they are correct to start with, what the compliance rate is, has the compliance rate changed from year to year, whether killing a bunch of deer is good because it shows they are present in large numbers to be killed, or it's bad because GC shows that we are killing them all, or it's a good thing that the harvest is down because less are being killed, or that's bad because that means we are running out of deer and that there are not enough around to kill. It changes so often that it is confusing. The only things that I can tell you for certain that are wrong with the Alabama herd is that our sex ratios are way out of whack because way too many bucks are killed annually, and have been forever, statewide, and the state harvest regs allow way, way, too many young bucks in the 1-3 yr age classes to be killed, which leads to the buck age structure problems that are prevalent throughout almost all of the state, which further causes a ton of societal and other herd health issues and stress, within the herd. Other than that, things are pretty good.

Mercy

I don't know if I'm more impressed with all the BS CNC spins or how Abolt can keep up with it haha!