With Bama's kicker this year, it's more likely to be "bama has the opportunity to go up by 3 with a minute to go, but the kicker misses a 20 yard chip shot kick". If Bama loses it will be because the line sucks, they cant run the ball for squat, and the receivers still all have alligator hands and are still dropping passes left and right. Other than that, Bama should win.
