Aldeer.com Forums Alabama Deer Talk Serious Deer Talk Forum Charts and Graphs

We’ve checked every single deer we’ve killed, even when it was voluntary. I even logged a spike (barely broke the hairline) I killed a couple years ago as a mistake, as an antlered buck, because it was the right thing to do. My son was with me and I’m not teaching him it’s ok to lie and log it in as a doe just to preserve those 3 bucks.

I have logged in all since the beginning. I have bought a license every year even when hunting on my own land. However I cannot say I didn’t bait when I was growing up as a teenager a long long time ago.

Pwyse, I think understand what you are saying and attempting to convey to CNC and I'll try to give an example. If it is off base, please feel free to correct me on it.

Alabama has roughly 250,000 licensed hunters. If just 2% of that number have not been participating in game check and decide, for whatever reason, to start reporting this year, that equates to 5,000 additional people checking in deer that previously had not been doing so. If each of those 5,000 people kills on average 4 deer in total, be it 1 buck and 3 does, 0 bucks and 4 does, 2 bucks and 2 does, or any combination of the two, that is 20,000 additional deer that will be logged into game check this year that were not being logged in previously. Since only about 200,000 deer are logged in annually, an increase of 20,000 deer reported makes it look like there's been a 10% increase in the total number of deer "harvested" as far as the charts go. Same thing goes in the other direction. If just 2% of the people that had previously been checking their deer say "screw it, I'm not going to take the time to report because I can process my own deer and the state is just going to do what it wants based solely on politics and $$$ anyway so why bother", those 5000 people dropping out will cause the number of deer "harvested" to look like it has declined by 20,000 deer year over year. Bad data and incomplete statistical analysis of that data, leads to incorrect assumptions and can enable the promotion of confirmation bias. Either one or both, in this case, can be used to substantiate your theory about the herd being decimated statewide. Could it be true? Yes it absolutely could. Our game regs and enforcement are pure trash when it comes to protecting and improving wildlife throughout the state. Could it be false? Also a yes. First situation above, with the harvest number increase, under your theory indicates that the sky is about to fall because we are killing way more/too many deer. Second situation, with a harvest decrease, says that the sky has already fallen, because there are not as many being killed and the only logical reason for that would be that there are now less deer on the landscape statewide, available to kill. Has there really been any significant change? We dont know because we really dont know how many people have the app and are in the reporting pool, how many in that pool are actually reporting and checking in every deer they kill year over year, how many checked deer last year but decided not to participate in checking their deer this year, and how many new people have joined the system and are just now checking deer in and adding to the total harvest number for the first time. As the numbers above show, just a 1-2% increase or decrease in GC participation can drastically influence the numbers up or down and affect the way the charts look. ^^^The fact that we dont really know the answers to all of the above is a big issue.

The above doesnt even begin to take into account year over year external factors such as temps, drought, things like Covid allowing everyone to hunt 3-4X more, was food abundant or scarce, more rainy or excessively hot weather on the weekends and holidays when most people try to hunt, overall economy (do people have the money to hunt), price of gas, seed, fert and most importantly now, CORN prices, etc etc. All of which absolutely affect the way people hunt, their number of harvest opportunities in a given season, and ultimately the number of deer harvested. Game check numbers show generalities and can be useful to some extent, but fail to provide context for, or account for any of the external factors that can and do drastically influence the harvest numbers from year to year.

Meanwhile, harvest is still up 64% since baiting was legalized.

Yep. Rule number one when using data to make a decision is to use good data.

It would be like a club not keeping good records, and then trying to make management decisions off those records.

Again for the viewers at home......When you have this ^^^^^ type level of change occurring and folks are trying to convince you that you cant believe anything the numbers are telling you…….that’s a good indication that they are just full of chit and only attempting to distract.

The truth is that baiting has dropped a bomb on most of the state with increased harvesting and folks are trying like hell to sweep it under the rug…….

Duck hunting needs to get back to the way it was in the 90s. You’d do away with a lot of these excess deer hunters. That’s what happened around here. Duck hunting went to crap so now we have more deer hunters. Fortunately they don’t affect me but there is a lot of areas here that had never been deer hunted before that are hunted now. Hunters are going to hunt something. Also all of our kids are now of the age where they have to have a license to hunt in Alabama so we’ve added 8-10 new licensed hunters to that number just at our camp. I know that’s not a lot but how many kids have reached the age to need a license now? 🤷‍♂️

Since you can’t hunt turkeys dove and quail over bait, why do you also see around a 55% increase in harvest reports during the same time period in those animals?

Either it’s the 40K extra out of state hunters that have been added or they radically changed the way they do the hunter surveys right after baiting was legalized…..which would be mighty convenient if they did…….Even if they did we’re still up 25% just in the last few seasons……EVERYTHING points to there being significantly more deer getting killed

As a young man, I did a lot worse. But you can’t go wrong by doing right 👍

Okay CNC. There you are with the OOS hunters again. I'm sure that the number has probably increased some but google how much has Alabama's population grown. Look at it the year before the baiting started and look at the last available 2024 data. You dont think that some of the 246,000 additional permanent residents that have moved into the state between 2019 and 2024 just might be hunters? If just 15% are, there's pretty much your entire license increase. Like others have said, how many of those 40,000 are kids that have been hunting for years with their parents and grandparents and have turned 16, aged out and now have to purchase a license.

It points to bad data.

What they are saying about the way the compliance numbers were calculated is pure mathematical fact. You can't just fabricate that. Crap, they are actually contributing to your theory that there were more deer killed than reported and yet you have a problem with what they are saying. PWSE then pointed out the fact that there was such a small change from last year to this year (WHICH IS WHAT YOU STARTED THIS WHOLE THREAD ABOUT TO SEE THE IMPACT OF THE 2 DOE A DAY RULE) that it was meaningless so you jumped to changes over a 7 year period due to baiting. You then picked another tangent with the additional 40K out of state hunter comment. Having a discussion with you is like trying to herd squirrels on meth. If what you are doing isn't muddying the waters, then nothing is.
Again, I will point to your own words.........

CNC serious question. I have had the same hunting club for 30 years. Most of us have been it the last 20 years together. We are getting older most don't hunt as much . Most don't have to kill them like they use to. The younger generation does not hunt like we did. How does that figure in to your numbers? I know we are talking about recent trends . Why don't you do some kind of poll about what the real hunters on here are seeing compared to past years

Your Monroe County doe numbers just got bumped up a bit 😜. Youngest son filled the freezer. No need to fret, between the 2 of us, we saw over 15 does.

I think there is something to that. When I was kid and young adult, I was absolutely obsessed with hunting. My kids like to hunt, but they also have a lot of other hobbies that can keep them busy. I make it easy for them to participate. I’m not sure they would if they had to put in a lot of effort to do it.

As for me, I spent 15 years guiding my 3 boys and not getting to hunt much myself. That sort of put the flame out for me. I enjoy going and I love the habitat work, but I could count on one hand the number of deer I have killed in the last 10 years.

I shot a big doe this afternoon in Madison County.

Did I do a bad thing?

I think I'll just stick with what Game Check and the hunter survey shows