JR Holmes Oil Company </a </a Shark Guard REST NEST MATTRESS Mayer Insurance Services LLC
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CNC #4378167 11/25/25 06:43 PM
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Everyone one here knows you’re not going to get anywhere with CNC. Let him keep pretending with his make believe numbers game.


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Dances With Weeds
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Originally Posted by kyles
Gaslighting

Either that or its a gooberhead competition.......tough call grin

Last edited by CNC; 11/25/25 07:03 PM.

"For what shall it profit a man if he gain the whole world and lose his soul?" .....Mark 8:36
CNC #4378196 11/25/25 08:43 PM
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Well I can't determine if goathead is on your side or just stirring the pot

CNC #4378220 11/25/25 09:31 PM
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If I remember correctly, the snapper check builds in maybe 30% or so noncompliance. And that is in situations where you are way more likely to be checked vs deer hunting. I would find out the snapper noncompliance estimate and at least double it for deer.


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Dances With Weeds
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Originally Posted by kyles
Well I can't determine if goathead is on your side or just stirring the pot

Goathead is just keeping it 100......... rofl


"For what shall it profit a man if he gain the whole world and lose his soul?" .....Mark 8:36
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Dances With Weeds
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Originally Posted by Double Creek2
If I remember correctly, the snapper check builds in maybe 30% or so noncompliance. And that is in situations where you are way more likely to be checked vs deer hunting. I would find out the snapper noncompliance estimate and at least double it for deer.

So I went back and looked them up for us…..Here’s the numbers for the last 5 seasons for what the hunter survey estimates versus what was checked in to game check ……The last 4 seasons have been extremely stable for compliance rates…..I’m pretty sure that 71% year was the first year they made you have to take a number to the processor……So according to that I would need to bump my totals down slightly in my spread sheet for 5 seasons ago

The 2024-25 hunter survey estimated killing...... 330,400
The 2024-25 game check has us at……..206,000
62% compliance rate

The 2023-24 hunter survey estimated killing...... 314,500
The 2023-24 game check has us at……..202,300
64% compliance

The 2022-23 hunter survey..... 308,700
The 2022-23 game check…..196,700
63% compliance

The 2021-22 hunter survey...... 301,122
The 2021-22 game check……186,500
62% compliance

The 2020-21 hunter survey ......272, 700
The 2020-21 game check..... 195,200
71% compliance

Last edited by CNC; 11/25/25 11:21 PM.

"For what shall it profit a man if he gain the whole world and lose his soul?" .....Mark 8:36
CNC #4378243 11/25/25 10:53 PM
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Fancy
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I’ve been saying ever since they made it mandatory there’s been no more than 60-70% compliance. I honestly think it may be closer to 50% in actuality.

Last edited by Mbrock; 11/25/25 10:53 PM.
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Originally Posted by Mbrock
I’ve been saying ever since they made it mandatory there’s been no more than 60-70% compliance. I honestly think it may be closer to 50% in actuality.

I think 50% is about right. I wouldn't report any if I didn't have to have deer processed.

I used to do everything by the book and provide any requested data. I liked doing the avid turkey hunter survey every year until Chuck went off the rails with the Chamberlain DGT BS and reduced the bag limit and took away the first 2 weeks. Funny, I haven't killed a deer or turkey since

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6 point
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Originally Posted by crenshawco
Originally Posted by Mbrock
I’ve been saying ever since they made it mandatory there’s been no more than 60-70% compliance. I honestly think it may be closer to 50% in actuality.

I think 50% is about right. I wouldn't report any if I didn't have to have deer processed.

I used to do everything by the book and provide any requested data. I liked doing the avid turkey hunter survey every year until Chuck went off the rails with the Chamberlain DGT BS and reduced the bag limit and took away the first 2 weeks. Funny, I haven't killed a deer or turkey since

I would suggest that someone associated with the industry should still lead by honest example.

CNC #4378279 11/26/25 07:24 AM
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So you are saying it is 60%, but in reality it is 60% of an unknown percentage because the hunter survey is obviously not 100%. Since we don’t know the fluctuations of that percentage, the fluctuations of the game check percentages carry even less weight. Small fluctuations in your percentages on the map really don’t mean anything do they?

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Originally Posted by Pwyse
So you are saying it is 60%, but in reality it is 60% of an unknown percentage because the hunter survey is obviously not 100%. Since we don’t know the fluctuations of that percentage, the fluctuations of the game check percentages carry even less weight. Small fluctuations in your percentages on the map really don’t mean anything do they?


Not to mention if you didn’t check your deer, you definitely aren’t going to say you killed a deer on the survey. At least I hope people aren’t that dumb.


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Freak of Nature
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Originally Posted by Double Creek2
Originally Posted by Pwyse
So you are saying it is 60%, but in reality it is 60% of an unknown percentage because the hunter survey is obviously not 100%. Since we don’t know the fluctuations of that percentage, the fluctuations of the game check percentages carry even less weight. Small fluctuations in your percentages on the map really don’t mean anything do they?


Not to mention if you didn’t check your deer, you definitely aren’t going to say you killed a deer on the survey. At least I hope people aren’t that dumb.


They are , killing a big un , not checking him in and putting it on Facebook has gotten several busted .



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CNC #4378316 11/26/25 08:58 AM
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lol good. My family has checked every deer since inception. I do feel like we’re in the minority.

Two does on two dif pieces of property this year so far. Both in Lamar co.


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Originally Posted by T-hatchie
Originally Posted by crenshawco
Originally Posted by Mbrock
I’ve been saying ever since they made it mandatory there’s been no more than 60-70% compliance. I honestly think it may be closer to 50% in actuality.

I think 50% is about right. I wouldn't report any if I didn't have to have deer processed.

I used to do everything by the book and provide any requested data. I liked doing the avid turkey hunter survey every year until Chuck went off the rails with the Chamberlain DGT BS and reduced the bag limit and took away the first 2 weeks. Funny, I haven't killed a deer or turkey since

I would suggest that someone associated with the industry should still lead by honest example.

Thanks for the suggestion. I'll be sure to take it into consideration

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Doing the best I can.
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Originally Posted by Pwyse
So you are saying it is 60%, but in reality it is 60% of an unknown percentage because the hunter survey is obviously not 100%. Since we don’t know the fluctuations of that percentage, the fluctuations of the game check percentages carry even less weight.

That's why I made the comment about not turning in the survey. You can't get an accurate compliance rate for something when you don't know the compliance rate for the thing with which you are comparing it to. Like you said, it's a percentage of an unknown percentage.

That being said, I would think CNC would approve of that assessment since it would indicate more deer were killed in previous years than reported. That would lend to his side of the debate that too many were being killed.

See Harold, I'm not ALWAYS against everything you say. grin


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Originally Posted by Driveby
Originally Posted by Pwyse
So you are saying it is 60%, but in reality it is 60% of an unknown percentage because the hunter survey is obviously not 100%. Since we don’t know the fluctuations of that percentage, the fluctuations of the game check percentages carry even less weight.

That's why I made the comment about not turning in the survey. You can't get an accurate compliance rate for something when you don't know the compliance rate for the thing with which you are comparing it to. Like you said, it's a percentage of an unknown percentage.

That being said, I would think CNC would approve of that assessment since it would indicate more deer were killed in previous years than reported. That would lend to his side of the debate that too many were being killed.

See Harold, I'm not ALWAYS against everything you say. grin


You aren’t wrong. But bad data leads to bad decisions. Like I said earlier, him trying to prove his theories by providing bad data is useless. The fluctuations in the percentages could be caused by a huge amount of unknowns. It’s just not a reliable metric to prove anything at all. It would be very irresponsible to use his reasoning to make management decisions on a statewide level.

Now in his defense, the state is already making irresponsible management decisions in my opinion. Trying to manage a resource with a handful of game wardens is highly irresponsible.

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Originally Posted by T-hatchie
Originally Posted by crenshawco
Originally Posted by Mbrock
I’ve been saying ever since they made it mandatory there’s been no more than 60-70% compliance. I honestly think it may be closer to 50% in actuality.

I think 50% is about right. I wouldn't report any if I didn't have to have deer processed.

I used to do everything by the book and provide any requested data. I liked doing the avid turkey hunter survey every year until Chuck went off the rails with the Chamberlain DGT BS and reduced the bag limit and took away the first 2 weeks. Funny, I haven't killed a deer or turkey since

I would suggest that someone associated with the industry should still lead by honest example.

Yeah, anyone working for the government including officers should drive 65 on the interstate. Let me know how that works out. slap

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Originally Posted by Driveby
Originally Posted by Pwyse
So you are saying it is 60%, but in reality it is 60% of an unknown percentage because the hunter survey is obviously not 100%. Since we don’t know the fluctuations of that percentage, the fluctuations of the game check percentages carry even less weight.

That's why I made the comment about not turning in the survey. You can't get an accurate compliance rate for something when you don't know the compliance rate for the thing with which you are comparing it to. Like you said, it's a percentage of an unknown percentage.

That being said, I would think CNC would approve of that assessment since it would indicate more deer were killed in previous years than reported. That would lend to his side of the debate that too many were being killed.

See Harold, I'm not ALWAYS against everything you say. grin

I think if we saw a drastic decline for 3 years in a row in his percentages in 75% of the counties it would indicate an issue. A decline of over 10%. That would definitely be concerning. But splitting hairs on bad data is useless.

CNC #4378357 11/26/25 10:16 AM
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Dances With Weeds
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slap


"For what shall it profit a man if he gain the whole world and lose his soul?" .....Mark 8:36
CNC #4378377 11/26/25 11:31 AM
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Dances With Weeds
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Originally Posted by CNC
The 2024-25 hunter survey estimated killing...... 330,400
The 2024-25 game check has us at……..206,000
62% compliance rate

The 2023-24 hunter survey estimated killing...... 314,500
The 2023-24 game check has us at……..202,300
64% compliance

The 2022-23 hunter survey..... 308,700
The 2022-23 game check…..196,700
63% compliance

The 2021-22 hunter survey...... 301,122
The 2021-22 game check……186,500
62% compliance

The 2020-21 hunter survey ......272, 700
The 2020-21 game check..... 195,200
71% compliance

Let's take these hunter survey numbers back a couple more years to when baiting first started......

The 2019-20 hunter survey....... 218,000

The 2018-19 hunter survey.......203,000


For those keeping score at home........We've gone from 203,000 since baiting started to 330,000 last season.......I'd say that's a little more than a 1-2% difference......I think that's a 64% increase.......Also the number of hunters has risen from 191,000 up to 230,000.....I wonder where those extra hunters are coming from?? Hmmmm.......


Where have the deer gone?? Right there ^^^^^ is where they've gone.

Last edited by CNC; 11/26/25 11:33 AM.

"For what shall it profit a man if he gain the whole world and lose his soul?" .....Mark 8:36
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