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Ain't that a fact...

https://www.youtube.com/live/r_K-ea-xxyY?si=9ohzNGwwyQWwnVlk

haven’t seen Spann talk this way in a long time - take heed

Late Sat afternoon/evening shaping up to be tornadic

Probably put a dent in the AGC gun show attendance on Saturday in Hoover.

My wife talked to our youngest daughter yesterday and asked if she was coming home for the weekend ( she lives in Tuscaloosa). Her answer was probably Saturday 🙄. Girl ain’t paying attention. Wife said negative, you be be home Friday.😁

Spann stays calm. This is not the calm spann. Sound like he could have it right.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see PDS language used by tomorrow. New maps show basically the entire state is under the gun for moderate tornado chances. STP maps are scary looking right now, basically showing absolute prime tornado ingredients for much of Alabama and Mississippi

Moundville has had a bullseye on us for the last several springs.

I’m hearing “violent”, more, as a descriptor as Saturday gets closer…

I think women are missing a gene or something when it comes to being weather aware

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
LA...MS...AND AL...

...SUMMARY...
A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday across the central
Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous
significant tornadoes are possible on Saturday afternoon and
evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely.

...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley...
Primary change is to expand level 4-MDT north in AL and all
categories west in the tight gradient of severe potential from the
Sabine to Lower MS Valleys. A particularly volatile scenario for
destructive severe remains evident during the afternoon to evening
on Saturday centered on the level 4-MDT risk region.

In the wake of the vigorous shortwave trough and very deep surface
cyclone crossing the North-Central States on D2, a broad upper
trough will linger across the southern Great Plains. An intense
mid-level jetlet, in excess of 100 kts at 500-mb, should eject
through the basal portion of this trough in south TX on Saturday
afternoon. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along the
slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great
Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will
yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should
be pristine across southeast LA into central MS through late
morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming
air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the
deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its
northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D2 convection.

Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer
should yield at least moderate MLCAPE across the Lower MS Valley.
Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence
amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and
intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen during the
afternoon and evening, setting the stage for a severe-weather
outbreak including significant tornadoes, damaging gusts, and large
hail. A pronounced dropoff in severe may be realized with northward
extent across the TN Valley as an emerging band and/or highly
organized line outpaces the rich Gulf air. Despite weaker
instability with eastern extent into GA/SC, the intense wind fields
may sustain damaging wind and embedded tornado potential well into
the overnight.

...OH Valley to Lower Great Lakes...
Forecast confidence is low with regard to severe potential north of
the TN Valley. Weakening late D2 convection should be in a decaying
process at 12Z Saturday. Much of the region will then be in between
waves until late afternoon. Guidance differs on the degree of
diurnal destabilization ahead of the deepening surface cyclone that
should track north-northeast from the Ark-La-Tex. It is plausible
that widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley convection during the
day Saturday will temper the northward extent of instability by
Saturday evening/night within a predominately meridional deep-layer
wind profile. As such, the overall severe risk appears conditional,
but given the fast flow regime, potential for damaging winds and
perhaps a few tornadoes may be realized.

..Grams.. 03/13/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2343Z (6:43PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Thanks

I just posted this on farcebooks. I am about like James Spann I don't like to scream "Ah heck the sky is falling" like some of the "follow me so I make money armchair wather geeks." Anyway, this could very well end up like the 2011 outbreak in my opinion. The atmospheric setup is similar. Definitely watch that James Spann video he's top dog in this business. There is nobody I trust more about the weather than him. Especially when it comes to naders. What I posted below refers to Baldwin County as far as the wather radio.

I can't stress this enough. Be sure to have a weather radio Friday through Sunday. You see how high the scale is. It goes to 10. You see the numbers 15. This is off the charts. This is just one snap shot. Those high numbers of the Significant Tornado Parameter move east then lessen somewhat, but, a normal spring tornado outbreak we usually see these numbers in the 6-8 range. Any discreet storm that forms will be MORE than capable of producing a tornado. I don't like to be very flamboyant or extreme about these things, but this scenario could very well be like the generational tornado outbreak of April 2011. We currently are in levels 3 and 4 out of 5 in the scale so Severe weather is now likely. I wouldn't be surprised if a higher level was issued in central MS and AL tomorrow.

Things to do before this comes to fruition....

1. Purchase a NOAA weather radio. CVS sells them. Turn it to between 162.400 and 162.550. Just turn it to anyone of those settings until the robot man sounds clear. It is probably best to do this near your bedroom window and just keep the weather radio there through the duration of the event. Sometimes cell phones go into sleep/do not disturb mode overnight, but make sure you have your emergency alerts on your phone turned on.

2. If you find yourself in a tornado warned area, put on a helmet. Any kind of helmet. The number one cause of death in a tornado is blunt force trauma to the head.

3. Identify evacuation routes from your house to quickly leave if you live in a trailer or camper. You need to travel north or south as quickly as possible. Refer to #4. If in a well built structure, put as many walls in between you and the outside as you can, but the best place would be on the Northeast side of the center of the house.

4. This is very important. Know how to read a map and know where you live on a map. If the tornado signature is going to be moving north or south of you, that'll be good to know if you have to resort to #3 above. Tornadoes typically move from southwest to northeast here. Which will likely be the case during this event.

5. I will be posting everything I can if there is any threat ongoing or is coming to SW Bama or NW Florida. So keep your fb feed on my page or in any group I post this in.

My goal here is to save lives and keep folks informed of the situation. Hopefully this will end up being a non event for our area but just be prepared for it not to be.

"Anyway, this could very well end up like the 2011 outbreak in my opinion."

Dear Lord please, NO!

Spann said it won’t be like 2011

Said it won’t be multiple times

Yeah, probably not. But likes he also says - it will be your 4/27/11 if a big one comes down your street.

Unfortunately, there will be a few, maybe more than a few. I hope not, and I hope it’s a huge bust. But it doesn’t look good.

Looking for a positive - these type of cellular events that are less rain-wrapped and broken - are easier to see coming - easier to see in general. Just stay alert and watch them. Looks like a very broken cellular event similar to 2011.

Spann said specifically that it would not be an event like 2011. Said that was a generational event that would happen once maybe in 40 yrs. I’m not downplaying this wknd because I do believe it will be a rough ride for a lot of people but 2011 was historical.

Mee Maw just declared an emoigensee.