russia cannot fly complex packages, and they won't fly in daylight because of ukrainian MANPADs.
This is a great article discussing what you are talking about. Very interesting to say the least.
Click for Explanation of Russia's Lack of Air Superiority...If what you and this guy are saying is true, and I have no reason not to believe it is, then Russia does not have an ace in the hole and this is going to be a long, bloody and painful conflict for Russia. I would bet they know this by now and have already been working on a face saving exit strategy.
They simply can't afford a long term conflict like this compounded by all of the Western sanctions.