Aldeer.com Forums Alabama Deer Talk Serious Deer Talk Forum Sykes is Frustrated - BooHoo!

You would think that if he had as much power and pull as you all claim, he would have gotten the commissioner job and then moved on to Governor with plans on the White House in 2020.

I don't know myself. But you and PCP say it's accurate, that's good enough for me. I'll go with it. But the problem is the trust level of them making up numbers that weren't the sampling numbers. BhamFred said they asked them for estimates once. Did they take the GWs numbers and present them as the random survey? The trust, or lack of, is not necessarily random surveying but rather the numbers being manipulated to meet and agenda. That is just MY opinion on the problem with THIS random survey.

Yeah, Clem. That was a hammer to my head too.
I've never seen this elusive survey in 40 years.
I know hundreds of people who have never seen it either.
How the hell does one individual receive a "random" survey 10 of 17 years running?

Bill Klinton's surgeon General (I can't remember that idiots name) once used "statistics" to proclaim that 30% of Americans had aids.

No, it's what he claims he can do through threats. Personally, I'm calling his hand. Do it! Put up or shut up. I'm saying his threats, IF he could do it, would bring some unwanted attention from outside the hunting population.

That's a great example, CNC.

Those of you trashing the survey that they used for over 50 years don't seem to understand that you are agreeing with Chuck. He trashed it too, said it was worthless, and used that as one of the main reasons we needed GC.

I don't understand how you can trash the survey, but also be against GC. The population estimates were just baloney; the harvest estimate was very different.

There are millions of dollars exchanged every year on the basis of a timber cruise. That wouldn't happen if it didn't work. I've never been very far off on one of my 5% cruises before I've had timber cut.

But if you don't think random sampling works, then you oughta be gung ho in supporting GC.

What exactly has he threatened to do? I've seen the articles and maybe interpret them different than you. I've seen the statements asking what a solution is.

And I'm not getting in a pissing contest with you. Anyone that reads your post knows that you hate him and nothing anyone does or says will change that. So I'll bow out at the start. I just want to know where it was said with 100% certainly that if he doesn't get X he will do Y.

You can't half @$$ something like this. It's not going to work without the enforcement measures. I've hunted in other states where you can't move the deer before you put a marked/dated tag on it. Then a processor and or taxidermist takes the confirmation number before rendering services. That's the pinch point with this thing. There's still going to be people that dodge the system and process their own deer. All this rhetoric in these articles tells me he's either really stupid thinking the change was going to happen without proper enforcement, or this is all just fluff to make him not seem so authoritarian. Either way, I think processors are going to take a hit in the future...especially if they limit does.

You are correct, I do not like him and it goes back to his target of the handicapped, military, and seniors. Landowners, while I am one and support them in everyway, I feel is a more capable group to address it themselves. That was shown by AFOA. I don't like the way the 10 extra days up north but really don't have a problem with it, just want to assure it's not a mistake. So, whatever on that. GC, without knowing where we start and where we are headed, I can't really support it. But I'm not gonna lose sleep over it. So, basically, telling a 12 year old kid with cerebral palsy to get a license if you want to hunt is too much. Telling a 80 year man who wants to go out with his grandson one last time before he succumbs to cancer to pay up before doing so is wrong. The military, well, we should be able to provide them a little extra benefit while they are home from fighting for us.

All that but if it wasn't for me laid up sick as a dog, I wouldn't even be posting. The last 3-4 days have been my first post in months. So, generally im sick and just pissed off at nothing in particular

The threats of roadblocks, staking out processors, cutting seasons and bag limits. That's what I'm referring to. I say to him, do it. There are some businesses, even small towns, that make a lot of money off of hunters. It may not crush them but the pain they feel they will want to be passing on, this getting it out of the hunting community and into more of a retail sector.

No need to bow out. You are correct in what you have said. The 100% certainty has never been used.

He referred to the handicapped, military, seniors, and landowners as being in an entitlement program. You know, equal to a welfare recipients from the hood

There’s really a lot that goes into it a survey like this. It’s been so long ago now that I don’t remember all the finer details but it isn’t meant to find an exact number. It’s meant to come up with an answer that says something more like this statement……”I can say with 95% certainty that the real number is somewhere between 90,000 - 100,000.”……It’s called a confidence interval I believe it was. There are other math formulas that will tell you how many targets in the population need to be sampled in order to get that interval. It’s based off of something called “variance”…..That’s how much the individuals in the population differs from one another. Using the timber cruise example, it would be looking at how much each tree varies in size and how much the stand varies in density. If every tree was the same diameter and the same density….you could cruise one plot and know the total for the stand no matter if it was 100 acres or 1000 acres. The more variance though……the more targets have to sample to get an accurate estimate. Most timber cruises I believe sample 5-10% of the total.

I’m just scraping the crust off of the top of this subject to make the point that the survey was based off much more than just somebody pulling a number out of the air.

Leeches, man. They're just leeches. E'rrbody gots to pay their fair share.

Don't forget the field trialers, too.

I have received via the USPS, and filled out at least that many, and mailed it back to them since 2000, Clem. I haven't gotten one in the last 2 years though. Don't know if GC has replaced the hunter survey card or not?

I would hope that they didn't stop the mail surveys just to have some comparable numbers. That may be how they are gauging the participation percentile for GC?

I am not sure how they picked the mail survey participants? I just know my number came up at least every other year. In the survey, they asked about all your hunting info, not just deer. But I assume, much like GC, the information they received could have been very bogus. I could have lied my butt off on it, or I could have simply tossed the survey into the trash. I suspect there was a lot of that going on.

I'm honestly astounded that you received more than one, and up to 10, in 17 years.

I've held a license for 36 years and never received one. Outback's never received one. We're not the only ones out of the 250K +/- annually licensed hunters x Lots of Years who never have received one.

And yet you move into the state in 2000 and seem to get them like a Buckmasters renewal card. They're supposed to be sent randomly in whatever "statistically valid" format is required to be, well, statistically valid. Just seems weird.

But can the numbers be manipulated to suit an agenda AFTER they are compiled? Seems to me you could, thus it no longer being the random survey and results. THAT is what I believe most think has happened.. The random survey may have been accurate but what was presented to us was not the actual numbers. Just a thought.

Someone's going to say you need more tinfoil!

Not me. I don't know enough about it. PCP has never posted anything misleading that I'm aware of. With his reputation i trust his judgement on this. But that doesn't mean I won't question him on the subject. And now he has CNC in his corner. The other side, well, we were presented some pretty unrealistic numbers on their side.

We are never gonna be able to manage exact numbers with wildlife. About the most we can accurately see and use is whether people are killing less, more, or about the same over time…….Trends are the only thing of real value and survey numbers only need to be close to see such. Yearly numbers don’t have to be accurate down to the last deer and decimal point to look at trends. That’s why I think that a survey should be plenty good enough…….How hard would it be to have folks take a few question survey when they bought their license each year??

I agree Clem. Seems strange. There were a few years early on that I presumed that everyone received one, but I slowly figured out that it wasn't an every year thing. I have a couple of friends that did get them with me, and then there were years that they didn't get one and I did, and then they'd get one, and I didn't.

Still baffling that tons of folks haven't gotten one after decades of hunting. Someone else said something about never being called for jury duty either. I haven't been graced with that blessing yet, but for the longest time, moving around from job to job, and college then grad school, I just chalked it up to not being in the same place very long. I've been at my current residence for nearly 15 years, and still have missed the JD card. If it is/was indeed randomly determined, then by definition, it's not supposed to make sense or have any kind of pattern.