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Re: Warmer Winters [Re: wew3006] #2933377
10/22/19 10:59 PM
10/22/19 10:59 PM
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 6,593
Lake View, AL
Joe4majors Online content
14 point
Joe4majors  Online Content
14 point
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 6,593
Lake View, AL
Originally Posted by wew3006
Snowfall is not an indicator of how cold the periods were. It can snow at 35 and not at 0.


Correct. Our cold snaps are when dry arctic air makes it all the way down here. We get snow when we have the right timing of moisture from the Gulf meeting up with advancing cold air from the north.

Re: Warmer Winters [Re: GomerPyle] #2933381
10/22/19 11:05 PM
10/22/19 11:05 PM
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 6,593
Lake View, AL
Joe4majors Online content
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Joe4majors  Online Content
14 point
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 6,593
Lake View, AL
Originally Posted by GomerPyle
Originally Posted by UncleHuck

And there is really no consistent scientific opinion what that really will do the the climate. What we do know from 150 years or so of photographic evidence, is that sea levels have not significantly changed.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]


Those pictures don't really prove anything......depending on time of day, the tide and weather conditions at the time each one was taken, water levels could have varied greatly. Someone who supports the idea of rising ocean levels could easily argue against the evidence those pictures are supposed to provide by saying that the old pictures could have been taken at high tide while the "current" ones were taken at low tide.


Yeah, pictures could be used to try to make an argument either way.

Keep in mind I haven't once said we're all doomed, we're going to die, etc. There are plenty of idiots complaining of sea level rise and then turning around and build a condo on the beach.

Re: Warmer Winters [Re: Thisldu] #2933383
10/22/19 11:08 PM
10/22/19 11:08 PM
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 6,593
Lake View, AL
Joe4majors Online content
14 point
Joe4majors  Online Content
14 point
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 6,593
Lake View, AL
Originally Posted by Thisldu
Let's assume for second that the global warming guys are 100 percent right. Do they honestly believe that they can can change the climate "back" to what is was 150 years ago by laws and regulations?

I hear them talk about worrying about their grandchildren. So let's look say 50 years out.

So let's give you 100 % control to change all the laws and regulations in the whole world. You think you can control the earth's atmosphere to what is was 150 years ago?

It' all pride folks. Pride is the downfall of man.


I think you're exactly right. Government and regulations is the fastest way to screw things up worse. I'm all for protecting the environment and having better sources of energy, but let American ingenuity be the driving force of that...not meetings in Paris.

Re: Warmer Winters [Re: NSDQ160] #2933390
10/22/19 11:23 PM
10/22/19 11:23 PM
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 7,164
Lee County
R
RCHRR Online content
14 point
RCHRR  Online Content
14 point
R
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 7,164
Lee County
Climate changes all the time and global warming is nothing but a money maker for scientist. In the 80's it was "the next ice age is coming". Well it never came and the funds dried up so now it's global warming. Hey but the hole in the ozone layer is smaller than it's ever been.

Re: Warmer Winters [Re: NSDQ160] #2933685
10/23/19 11:12 AM
10/23/19 11:12 AM
Joined: Dec 2014
Posts: 3,309
FL
daylate Offline
10 point
daylate  Offline
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Posts: 3,309
FL
This link illustrates that ice core studies are still just a theory by SOME scientists. Others do not subscribe to that theory. It certainly does not help the theory that this is a man-made climate change.

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...es-show-co2-rising-as-temperatures-fell/

The conclusion from this:

"Jury still out

On a much bigger timescale, looking back 600 million years or more – when CO2 levels may have been as high as 5000 parts per million at times – there are substantial questions about whether the CO2-temperature correlation holds up. Some studies suggest that there are major discrepancies during at least two periods. Others claim the relationship holds up fairly well, including this recent study.

The jury is still out because the reliability of estimates of temperature and CO2 levels so long ago is extremely questionable."

Last edited by daylate; 10/23/19 11:21 AM.
Re: Warmer Winters [Re: Joe4majors] #2933809
10/23/19 02:14 PM
10/23/19 02:14 PM
Joined: Dec 2015
Posts: 21,977
blount county alabama
jwalker77 Offline
Pumpkin
jwalker77  Offline
Pumpkin
Joined: Dec 2015
Posts: 21,977
blount county alabama
Originally Posted by Joe4majors
Originally Posted by jwalker77
Originally Posted by Joe4majors
Originally Posted by jwalker77
Joe, I just dont agree with alot of your theories. That does not make me ignorant or unlearned. You dont even know me so surely you couldnt begin to tell me what ive studied, but yet you do and that goes right along with this pattern of passing your opinion off as fact.


You can disagree all you want, but that doesn't mean that [fill in the blank] is wrong. Bring something to the table other than "scientists are making up stuff, my 6th grade science teacher told me _____, there is not 100% perfect consensus on _______, I know nothing about it therefore it's wrong" and the like and I'll listen to you all day long. Taking quantitative measurements on something is not "opinion." You're using the word "theory" as if you're talking about the existence of Nessie. A theory for actual scientists is the explanation of natural phenomenon based on the best observations, measurements, etc. that we can make. Theories are refined as we get better observations, measurements, etc. CO2 dramatically increasing is not an opinion or theory, it's a observation.


The gas bubbles in the ice you mentioned. Exactly how do you know how old that gas bubble is or the ice the bubble is in. How do you know there wasnt something going on on the particular day the bubble formed that caused co2 levels to be higher than other days that year? The theory you are presenting is not the only theory out there explaining what youre talking about. The other theories also have evidence supporting them and scientist who believe in them. So far you have some gas in a bubble. I have no problem with the level of co2 in your bubble. But tell me how it got there, what was going on that day or even how long ago it was without a doubt? Thats where the theory comes into play, not the measurement of the co2.


Let's start with the age of the ice/bubbles/CO2. If you cut a tree down, it is very straightforward that the number of tree rings is directly related to the age of the tree. 35 rings means the tree is 35 years old. Trees are fairly simple as they grow during the spring/summer and go dormant during the winter, which results in contrasting layers and easy to see annual rings. Yeah, some trees don't make rings very well and trees typically don't live very long.

If you take a core into an ice cap (Greenland, Antartica), you also find "rings" in the form of layers, but these layers represent 1 year of snowfall. Fresh snow starts of soft, fluffy, and mostly air. As that layer of snow gets buried by more seasons worth of snow, pressure from the snow above compacts the snow (what was once maybe a couple feet of snow is now maybe 6 inches of snow). It's more of a slushie texture. More snow builds up above, more pressure, more compaction, and you end up with a layer of ice maybe a half inch thick or thereabouts. But it's not just pure ice, air bubbles are throughout the ice and preserve a sample of the atmosphere when that layer of snow was first deposited.

[Linked Image]

Take a core in 2019 for example and start counting layers down and you get the age of each layer, similar to counting the rings in a tree. Valid questions would be: How do you know each layer is one year? What if there are a bunch of layers missing? Confidence is added when you find anomalies in the ice core, such as a thin layer of volcanic ash. If you're in Greenland, then that ash layer might be due to a volcanic eruption in nearby Iceland. Maybe the eruption was in 1950 (just making up a random date), and the ash layer was 69 layers/years down. Maybe you find another ash layer that's a couple hundred layers down that's really close to a historical eruption, but they are off by 3-4 years. Do you throw out the whole idea because somewhere along the line you counted what should have been two separate layers as just 1? The age errors on these ice core records are usually accurate to about 1 or 2%. Ash layer shown below.

[Linked Image]

How do we know that something funky didn't happen on a particular year? Valid question. Scientists don't put all their eggs in one basket. We've collected many many ice cores from Greenland and Antartica and get similar records of CO2 and other gasses trapped in the ice. Are there subtle differences? Sure. Does not being an exact perfect match negate their records? No. Also, none of these analyzes are of a single air bubble.

For what it is worth, this is research that has been going on for decades, not some emerging science that we're still trying to figure out. If you want the research papers I can get them to you somehow. Below are a couple citations. For testing the reliability of the measurements, one would simply need to measure the gas trapped in a layer of snow from a particular year, let's say 1970, and then compare it to the CO2 concentration measured directly from the atmosphere from the same year. Then do the same for other years. The atmosphere is mixed well enough that the CO2 concentration in Alabama is about the same as it is in Hawaii, and Greenland, and Antartica, etc. for any given time.

U. Siegenthaler & H. Oeschger (1987) Biospheric CO2 emissions during the past 200 years reconstructed by deconvolution of ice core data, Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, 39:1-2, 140-154, DOI: 10.3402/tellusb.v39i1-2.15331

1983 "Comparison of CO2 measurements by two laboratories on air from bubbles in polar ice" Nature

Here is a short video on the topic. Do we honestly think that people would go to some of the most miserable places on earth to collect these samples just to make up false or meaningless data?





The rings indicare times above freezing and times below freezing or snow then rain, or snow then ice. I can agree with that. I have read and listened to other scientists who feel this is a very poor way of judging periods of time. Kind of like tree rings being dry periods and wet periods, also a poor indicator of age. Some trees have been known to grow 8-10 sets of rings in a year. Over a large amount of time that could throw a study way off. I figured your answer would be counting rings or measuring some other levels in the ice which would lead to a whole nother circular reasoning argument. I really wish you had had something factual and for sure.

Re: Warmer Winters [Re: NSDQ160] #2933817
10/23/19 02:25 PM
10/23/19 02:25 PM
Joined: Dec 2015
Posts: 21,977
blount county alabama
jwalker77 Offline
Pumpkin
jwalker77  Offline
Pumpkin
Joined: Dec 2015
Posts: 21,977
blount county alabama
Just for arguments sake, how many rings in the ice could possibly form in a years time? If the answer was 1 and always 1, this would be a great way of determining age. That is not the case though and the process is full of speculation. However, if it all happened the way you think it did, you would most likely be right about the level of co2 present at that time, as long as there wasnt other factors causing a spike in co2. I have also seen other studies on the levels of oxygen in the air now and thousands of years ago. Some believe the oxygen levels thousands of years ago was much higher than now, but those tests indicated if those levels were dropping at a steady rate, the earth could not possibly be over 10,000 years old or all the oxygen would be gone. All very interesting stuff and I fully intend to have a long talk with God about it as soon as I see him, that way ill know for sure.

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