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Question for gobbler #4148334
06/15/24 07:59 PM
06/15/24 07:59 PM
Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 11,800
Huntsville
JUGHEAD Offline OP
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JUGHEAD  Offline OP
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Huntsville
Or whoever knows the answer. In all of the mounds of podcasts, videos, social media posts, and forum discussions, somewhere I read about a known and understood phenomenon where wild turkeys reached an artificially high peak at about 20 years after reintroduction and then populations begin to naturally wane and settle/average/trend at a number much less than the peak. What is this called? What information can you point me to on it? Is this phenomenon being neglected as a valid explanation for some of the population decline in certain locales? Please provide anything I could read to study and better understand.


"The only reason I shoot a 3.5" shell for turkeys is because they don't make a 4" one." - t123winters
Re: Question for gobbler [Re: JUGHEAD] #4148338
06/15/24 08:07 PM
06/15/24 08:07 PM
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 14,692
Tuscaloosa Co.
N
N2TRKYS Offline
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Tuscaloosa Co.
Originally Posted by JUGHEAD
Or whoever knows the answer. In all of the mounds of podcasts, videos, social media posts, and forum discussions, somewhere I read about a known and understood phenomenon where wild turkeys reached an artificially high peak at about 20 years after reintroduction and then populations begin to naturally wane and settle/average/trend at a number much less than the peak. What is this called? What information can you point me to on it? Is this phenomenon being neglected as a valid explanation for some of the population decline in certain locales? Please provide anything I could read to study and better understand.


Chad,

That 20 year top out that you’re referring to is after a restocking effort. Not just in turkeys.


83% of all statistics are made up.

Re: Question for gobbler [Re: JUGHEAD] #4148349
06/15/24 08:17 PM
06/15/24 08:17 PM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 22,510
Awbarn, AL
CNC Offline
Dances With Weeds
CNC  Offline
Dances With Weeds
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Awbarn, AL
Density dependance??


We dont rent pigs
Re: Question for gobbler [Re: JUGHEAD] #4148381
06/15/24 08:49 PM
06/15/24 08:49 PM
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 9,940
North Jackson
R
ridgestalker Offline
14 point
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North Jackson
Never understood the theory myself.


"The Heavens declare the glory of God;and the firmament sheweth his handiwork" Pslam 19:1
Re: Question for gobbler [Re: ridgestalker] #4148396
06/15/24 09:11 PM
06/15/24 09:11 PM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 22,510
Awbarn, AL
CNC Offline
Dances With Weeds
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Dances With Weeds
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Awbarn, AL
Originally Posted by ridgestalker
Never understood the theory myself.


It’s the idea that a population will never be able to just keep growing and growing……SOMETHING eventually becomes a limiting factor.


We dont rent pigs
Re: Question for gobbler [Re: JUGHEAD] #4148405
06/15/24 09:21 PM
06/15/24 09:21 PM
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 19,592
colbert county
cartervj Online content
Old Mossy Horns
cartervj  Online Content
Old Mossy Horns
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Posts: 19,592
colbert county
Not sure if Colbert and Lauderdale were restocked heavily in the 70s or not. I think some were introduced because I know a guy that killed in that had a transmitter and leg bands. Said the bird was 7 or 8 best I can recall. He killed it in the 80s on Thomas when the season was reopened.

I mention this because during the kid 90s to mid 2005ish folks don’t believe what we experienced along the creek and surrounding areas. That would coincide with the 20 year boom theory. Then again all things necessary for turkeys to thrive could’ve aligned too. Hunter numbers declined too. We always heard rumors of a few old guys with the patients to kill those things and keen woodsmanship. Otherwise you were just wasting your time trying. Heard it over and over so no need to try. The increase in hunting pressure from early 90s to when the local chapter of NWTF started and it as on. I was around those guys but never served on a position.

I’ve been told that has no bearing but oh well, it was just coincidence.

I think numbers are kind of stable now and just normal fluctuations. 3 weeks ago I was complaining like everyone else about poults. I’m seeing tons of them now.

This greeted me at the gate this morning. Things probably half of hat was in the road when I pulled up. 2 hens had them but I bet it as the 3 hen groups I saw last week with about 20 poults.

[Linked Image]


“Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don't need it and hell where they already have it.” ― Ronald Reagan
Re: Question for gobbler [Re: JUGHEAD] #4148455
06/15/24 11:05 PM
06/15/24 11:05 PM
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 12,971
Montgomery / Luverne
crenshawco Offline
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crenshawco  Offline
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Montgomery / Luverne
Carrying capacity

Re: Question for gobbler [Re: crenshawco] #4148508
06/16/24 07:29 AM
06/16/24 07:29 AM
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 9,940
North Jackson
R
ridgestalker Offline
14 point
ridgestalker  Offline
14 point
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Joined: Jan 2012
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North Jackson
Originally Posted by crenshawco
Carrying capacity

I can understand that but why would they go straight down hill afterwards ? They only live 4-6 years at best. What’s the difference between introducing a 100 birds and the 100 birds that are there now?

Last edited by ridgestalker; 06/16/24 07:30 AM.

"The Heavens declare the glory of God;and the firmament sheweth his handiwork" Pslam 19:1
Re: Question for gobbler [Re: JUGHEAD] #4148574
06/16/24 09:08 AM
06/16/24 09:08 AM
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,897
AL
B
BD Offline
10 point
BD  Offline
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AL
Predator Adaptation.

Re: Question for gobbler [Re: JUGHEAD] #4148635
06/16/24 10:35 AM
06/16/24 10:35 AM
Joined: Aug 2018
Posts: 5,424
Georgia and Missouri
Semo Offline
12 point
Semo  Offline
12 point
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Posts: 5,424
Georgia and Missouri
Population dynamics. carrying capacity is dependent on multiple variables. As populations persist at higher numbers those factors tend to exacerbate population pressures. For example: early populations tend to have less disease and natural predation.

Thinking about population growth in a stochastic model is more helpful. As populations increase there is an increase of "random/maybe dependent " events that negativity influence populations. Reintroduced population overshoots are also well documented.

Re: Question for gobbler [Re: JUGHEAD] #4148693
06/16/24 12:39 PM
06/16/24 12:39 PM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 22,510
Awbarn, AL
CNC Offline
Dances With Weeds
CNC  Offline
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Awbarn, AL
This is the way I perceive it to happen……Populations grow until the point that some kind of resource begins to be exploited…..During the initial exploitation of that resource the population grows to the peak of which that resource could produce and then a little extra……The extra ends up dying off because its past the bounds of the limit and populations fall back down to just the population that the resource will sustain…

Now, there is also the potential for the maxed out population to inflict some kind of negative impact on the resource which lowers its carrying capacity potential moving forward from what it was before the initial population growth…..If this was deer I could compare it to them coming in and wiping out ice cream plants on the initial population climb and then receding back to what the new plant populations look like after exploitation.

That’s kind of the way I perceive it anyways…..You’ve also got predators to consider and if this new population of prey (turkey) is also increasing their carrying capacity…..The predator population increase would lag behind the prey increase.

Last edited by CNC; 06/16/24 12:39 PM.

We dont rent pigs
Re: Question for gobbler [Re: JUGHEAD] #4148906
06/16/24 07:49 PM
06/16/24 07:49 PM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 22,510
Awbarn, AL
CNC Offline
Dances With Weeds
CNC  Offline
Dances With Weeds
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Awbarn, AL
Here's something that I bet happened in a lot of areas that probably throws a monkey wrench in trying to understand what’s occurring…….

When turkey restocking occurred there were very few, if any, coyotes east of the Mississippi……A lot more people trapped coons and avian predators were fewer…….Turkey populations probably grew without predation being a major limiting factor to growth……Populations probably grew until other things began to become limiting factors……I could see “insect availability during the poult rearing stage” as something that would eventually be effected as numbers grow. If populations keep growing and growing then at some point you’re going to reach a threshold where poults no longer have “all you can eat”…..The availability for each poult starts decreasing.

That’s ^^^^ probably the population threshold that many areas grew to in the past......something of that nature…..These days though we have coyotes heavily added into the mix as well as higher numbers of coons and avian predators……There’s probably not many turkey populations that are going to reach those past threshold again with predation now being the major limiting factor

Last edited by CNC; 06/16/24 07:51 PM.

We dont rent pigs
Re: Question for gobbler [Re: JUGHEAD] #4148958
06/16/24 09:46 PM
06/16/24 09:46 PM
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 5,236
South Alabama
gobbler Online content
12 point
gobbler  Online Content
12 point
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 5,236
South Alabama
Originally Posted by JUGHEAD
Or whoever knows the answer. In all of the mounds of podcasts, videos, social media posts, and forum discussions, somewhere I read about a known and understood phenomenon where wild turkeys reached an artificially high peak at about 20 years after reintroduction and then populations begin to naturally wane and settle/average/trend at a number much less than the peak. What is this called? What information can you point me to on it? Is this phenomenon being neglected as a valid explanation for some of the population decline in certain locales? Please provide anything I could read to study and better understand.


I could find it if I searched a while but the basic premise is that I learned in early wildlife ecology. That a "new" population exploited the under-utilized resources and the population expanded rapidly. It reached an artificially high peak then declined to a more "sustainable" level and proceeded to fluctuate naturally with predators, weather and the other factors that influence populations. The turkey thing is kinda new in discussion in that folks seem to be seeing a reoccurring theme - 20 years after reintroduction the population hits a high and declines, kinda like we were taught! wink And, yea, I think a lot of folks are neglecting it as an explanation. If I find anything, Ill share! Matt maybe can remember more since he was at AU less years in the past laugh


I swear by my life and my love of it that I will never live for the sake of another man, nor ask another man to live for mine
Re: Question for gobbler [Re: CNC] #4149064
06/17/24 08:17 AM
06/17/24 08:17 AM
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 12,236
Sylacauga, AL
poorcountrypreacher Offline
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Sylacauga, AL
Originally Posted by CNC
Here's something that I bet happened in a lot of areas that probably throws a monkey wrench in trying to understand what’s occurring…….

When turkey restocking occurred there were very few, if any, coyotes east of the Mississippi……A lot more people trapped coons and avian predators were fewer…….Turkey populations probably grew without predation being a major limiting factor to growth……Populations probably grew until other things began to become limiting factors……I could see “insect availability during the poult rearing stage” as something that would eventually be effected as numbers grow. If populations keep growing and growing then at some point you’re going to reach a threshold where poults no longer have “all you can eat”…..The availability for each poult starts decreasing.

That’s ^^^^ probably the population threshold that many areas grew to in the past......something of that nature…..These days though we have coyotes heavily added into the mix as well as higher numbers of coons and avian predators……There’s probably not many turkey populations that are going to reach those past threshold again with predation now being the major limiting factor


I think you are right on the coyotes; a new predator seems likely to change things somewhat.

I'm skeptical of the idea that carrying capacity for turkeys could be primarily food related. Seems to me that they can find something to eat most anywhere. And if they don't, they won't do like a deer and stay there until they starve - they will just go somewhere else.

The inevitable decline from the peak is something I think is mostly predator related. It apparently takes 20 years for the predators to learn how to hunt both the turkeys and the nests. Once coons start to intentionally hunt for nests, and teach their offspring to hunt them, that is going to end up in fewer turkeys. At least, that sounds reasonable to me.


All the labor of man is for his mouth, and yet the appetite is not filled.
Re: Question for gobbler [Re: JUGHEAD] #4149135
06/17/24 10:42 AM
06/17/24 10:42 AM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 22,510
Awbarn, AL
CNC Offline
Dances With Weeds
CNC  Offline
Dances With Weeds
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Awbarn, AL
I don’t buy the predator theory that it takes them 20 years to learn to hunt turkeys……Racoons scavenge for food…..They already know how to do that.

The idea with food mostly revolves around the poults. If you take predators out of the equation as limiting growth then something else will eventually have to kick in. There’s only “X” amount of insect abundance to feed the poults during their critical period in the spring…..In the beginning of a population growth scenario, each individual poult would get their fill of all they wanted…..If you keep increasing the population more and more and more though…..eventually you will reach a point where the turkey population is thinning down the insects to the point that suddenly that individual poult doesn’t have the same insect abundance available to them.

Also, even with adult hens……the amount of prime food available to them would start having to be divided up more and more…..especially in the winter…..They may find “food” but it may not be the same quality of food that carried them through the winter in such a healthy state that they produced 10-12 eggs……Now they may only be producing 6-8 or something of that nature……That’s how density dependance is going to kick in with population growth where predators are not limiting things……Its going to be something of this nature anyways……It could be spatially limited somehow but that doesn’t seem as likely.


Last edited by CNC; 06/17/24 10:45 AM.

We dont rent pigs
Re: Question for gobbler [Re: JUGHEAD] #4149164
06/17/24 11:53 AM
06/17/24 11:53 AM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 22,510
Awbarn, AL
CNC Offline
Dances With Weeds
CNC  Offline
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Awbarn, AL
If you’ve been watching the Turkey Science Podcasts they mentioned in there that in South Dakota they saw population growth with their studies once hen survival got to about 62%…….Let’s say that we go in and take out predators and we start producing 85% hen survival as a result……The population will start growing……but it will only grow until the numbers reach the next threshold for a limiting factor. If we take out predation then it leaves us with something that’s impacting the health of the individual animal. That could be nutritional stress or it could social stress….disease, etc…..As the numbers increase it causes some type of stressor to impact the condition of the average individual more and more.

Last edited by CNC; 06/17/24 01:06 PM.

We dont rent pigs
Re: Question for gobbler [Re: CNC] #4149232
06/17/24 02:08 PM
06/17/24 02:08 PM
Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 22,510
Awbarn, AL
CNC Offline
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CNC  Offline
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Awbarn, AL
Originally Posted by CNC
I don’t buy the predator theory that it takes them 20 years to learn to hunt turkeys……Racoons scavenge for food…..They already know how to do that.

The idea with food mostly revolves around the poults. If you take predators out of the equation as limiting growth then something else will eventually have to kick in. There’s only “X” amount of insect abundance to feed the poults during their critical period in the spring…..In the beginning of a population growth scenario, each individual poult would get their fill of all they wanted…..If you keep increasing the population more and more and more though…..eventually you will reach a point where the turkey population is thinning down the insects to the point that suddenly that individual poult doesn’t have the same insect abundance available to them.

Also, even with adult hens……the amount of prime food available to them would start having to be divided up more and more…..especially in the winter…..They may find “food” but it may not be the same quality of food that carried them through the winter in such a healthy state that they produced 10-12 eggs……Now they may only be producing 6-8 or something of that nature……That’s how density dependance is going to kick in with population growth where predators are not limiting things……Its going to be something of this nature anyways……It could be spatially limited somehow but that doesn’t seem as likely.



Here's something else I should have added to that idea of how food could become a limiting factor……If we remove predation as a limiting factor to growth and the population starts climbing…..the insect populations in the spring are going to start getting hammered harder and harder as more and more turkeys are added…….At a certain threshold that should begin to impact the number of insects that reproduce and are available on the next go around…… I could see the potential for turkey populations growing to a point that they nearly wipe out certain species.

Remember that all food is not created equal and the best ones typically get exploited first……Growth cant keep occurring forever……one thing after another will start becoming a limiting factor. I imagine the last line of defense will be wide spread disease that knocks the populations way back. Right now it all appears predation limited and all of this ^^^ is just talking concepts

Last edited by CNC; 06/17/24 02:26 PM.

We dont rent pigs
Re: Question for gobbler [Re: JUGHEAD] #4149398
06/17/24 07:15 PM
06/17/24 07:15 PM
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 1,447
Crenshaw
C
CrappieMan Offline
8 point
CrappieMan  Offline
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Crenshaw
Ain't but 2 things hurting turkeys and that'd predators and humans. Way more people hunting than now than 25 yrs ago.

Re: Question for gobbler [Re: CNC] #4149508
06/18/24 01:49 AM
06/18/24 01:49 AM
Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 26,244
Fayetteville TN Via Selma
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jawbone  Offline
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Fayetteville TN Via Selma
Originally Posted by CNC
I don’t buy the predator theory that it takes them 20 years to learn to hunt turkeys……Racoons scavenge for food…..They already know how to do that.

The idea with food mostly revolves around the poults. If you take predators out of the equation as limiting growth then something else will eventually have to kick in. There’s only “X” amount of insect abundance to feed the poults during their critical period in the spring…..In the beginning of a population growth scenario, each individual poult would get their fill of all they wanted…..If you keep increasing the population more and more and more though…..eventually you will reach a point where the turkey population is thinning down the insects to the point that suddenly that individual poult doesn’t have the same insect abundance available to them.
iology class at AU
Also, even with adult hens……the amount of prime food available to them would start having to be divided up more and more…..especially in the winter…..They may find “food” but it may not be the same quality of food that carried them through the winter in such a healthy state that they produced 10-12 eggs……Now they may only be producing 6-8 or something of that nature……That’s how density dependance is going to kick in with population growth where predators are not limiting things……Its going to be something of this nature anyways……It could be spatially limited somehow but that doesn’t seem as likely.


In my Biology class at AU they did a section on Wildlife Biology and one thing I remember form that class is that the predator/prey cycle takes 7 years to complete under normal circumstances. In other words, an abundance of prey will lead to an abundance or predators which will lead to a decline in prey which will lead to a decline in predators, which leads to an abundance of prey and the cycle starts anew. 7 years worth. I understand that the original question didn't deal with normal circumstances though, but it is interesting when you see tons of rabbits that you won't see many bobcats and coyotes for a year or two. Then you'll see plenty.


Lord, please help us get our nation straightened out.
Re: Question for gobbler [Re: CNC] #4149541
06/18/24 07:06 AM
06/18/24 07:06 AM
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 12,236
Sylacauga, AL
poorcountrypreacher Offline
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poorcountrypreacher  Offline
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Sylacauga, AL
Originally Posted by CNC
I don’t buy the predator theory that it takes them 20 years to learn to hunt turkeys……Racoons scavenge for food…..They already know how to do that.

The idea with food mostly revolves around the poults. If you take predators out of the equation as limiting growth then something else will eventually have to kick in. There’s only “X” amount of insect abundance to feed the poults during their critical period in the spring…..In the beginning of a population growth scenario, each individual poult would get their fill of all they wanted…..If you keep increasing the population more and more and more though…..eventually you will reach a point where the turkey population is thinning down the insects to the point that suddenly that individual poult doesn’t have the same insect abundance available to them.

Also, even with adult hens……the amount of prime food available to them would start having to be divided up more and more…..especially in the winter…..They may find “food” but it may not be the same quality of food that carried them through the winter in such a healthy state that they produced 10-12 eggs……Now they may only be producing 6-8 or something of that nature……That’s how density dependance is going to kick in with population growth where predators are not limiting things……Its going to be something of this nature anyways……It could be spatially limited somehow but that doesn’t seem as likely.



They know how to scavenge, but they don't know how to hunt for upland nests during the late spring. How could they? They have never been around turkeys before, so it takes time for that to become a learned and repeatable behavior that can be passed down to offspring. The first encounters would be accidental; think of how long it would take a coon population to take those accidental encounters and make something intentional.


All the labor of man is for his mouth, and yet the appetite is not filled.
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