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Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: IDOT] #3081917
03/27/20 03:22 PM
03/27/20 03:22 PM

S
sgtred
Unregistered
sgtred
Unregistered
S


Originally Posted by IDOT
Originally Posted by sgtred
Am I going to get an answer on when Alabama peaks ?


2+ more weeks

That don't jive ,with what the stat expert says. He says Tuesday the 6 th, done run numbers

Last edited by sgtred; 03/27/20 03:23 PM.
Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: ] #3081957
03/27/20 03:53 PM
03/27/20 03:53 PM
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375
Jasper, AL
J
joshm28 Offline
14 point
joshm28  Offline
14 point
J
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375
Jasper, AL
Originally Posted by sgtred
Originally Posted by IDOT
Originally Posted by sgtred
Am I going to get an answer on when Alabama peaks ?


2+ more weeks

That don't jive ,with what the stat expert says. He says Tuesday the 6 th, done run numbers


If you are referencing me I never said anything about Alabama. My prediction was based on the entire country. It’s feasible the new daily cases for the country are declining while some smaller geographic areas are still increasing.

Look I ran the numbers strictly because you absolutely can not trust the mainstream media. I was curious more than anything what a trend would look like. So I started running the numbers. Nothing more nothing less. If I get it right then we all will be in a much better mood a week from today. Lord knows we need something positive right now.

Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3081964
03/27/20 04:01 PM
03/27/20 04:01 PM

S
sgtred
Unregistered
sgtred
Unregistered
S


I was , asked once already, and no Alabama won't peak by Tuesday, neither will the US. Too many large metropolitan areas, that haven't got hot yet., Appears mitigation is working, otherwise all the metropolitan hubs would all be hot at once, which they are not.

Last edited by sgtred; 03/27/20 04:06 PM.
Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3084224
03/30/20 08:28 AM
03/30/20 08:28 AM
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375
Jasper, AL
J
joshm28 Offline
14 point
joshm28  Offline
14 point
J
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375
Jasper, AL
Bump

So most of you guys know I’ve been predicting the PEAK for the US one day this week. With that being said I wanted to share some numbers and graphs from the weekend. As of this morning things are not quite as doom and gloom as the media portrays it. Italy is on its 4th consecutive day of declining daily new cases. This could be a fantastic sign for them as the virus is stabilizing to a degree in that country.

As for the US numbers. Could we be reaching the peak of daily new cases? Yesterday was the FIRST day in over a week in which the daily new cases actually shrunk.

[Linked Image]

In addition there was a 50% reduction in daily deaths yesterday.

[Linked Image]


Was the past couple days just a blip in the data? Possibly but I don’t think so. I’ve been wrong many times in my life though. I do know for a fact 5hat the exponential growth of the daily new cases is lower than what I forecast over a week ago. (It’s definitely not spreading quite as fast. I pray it continues this trend.


Last edited by joshm28; 03/30/20 08:41 AM.
Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3084255
03/30/20 09:01 AM
03/30/20 09:01 AM
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 3,837
West Alabama
Ant67 Offline
10 point
Ant67  Offline
10 point
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 3,837
West Alabama
Won’t the cycle just repeat itself? Glad Italy may have peaked but that is with serious lock down. What happens next?

Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: Ant67] #3084256
03/30/20 09:03 AM
03/30/20 09:03 AM
Joined: Mar 2018
Posts: 16,805
Banana Republic
jb20 Offline
Old Mossy Horns
jb20  Offline
Old Mossy Horns
Joined: Mar 2018
Posts: 16,805
Banana Republic
Originally Posted by Ant67
Won’t the cycle just repeat itself? Glad Italy may have peaked but that is with serious lock down. What happens next?

Kinda what I was thinking


They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.
Ben Franklin
Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3084257
03/30/20 09:04 AM
03/30/20 09:04 AM
Joined: Aug 2018
Posts: 3,884
Montgomery, Alabama
B
bama1971 Offline
10 point
bama1971  Offline
10 point
B
Joined: Aug 2018
Posts: 3,884
Montgomery, Alabama
So is Trump wrong now?

Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bama1971] #3084258
03/30/20 09:05 AM
03/30/20 09:05 AM
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 7,071
Free State of Winston
F
FreeStateHunter Offline
They Call Me Gator 🐊
FreeStateHunter  Offline
They Call Me Gator 🐊
F
Joined: Mar 2020
Posts: 7,071
Free State of Winston
Originally Posted by bama1971
So is Trump wrong now?


I may be thinking about it incorrectly but how could Trump be wrong, its not like he ran the analysis himself.

Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: Ant67] #3084266
03/30/20 09:18 AM
03/30/20 09:18 AM
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375
Jasper, AL
J
joshm28 Offline
14 point
joshm28  Offline
14 point
J
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375
Jasper, AL
Originally Posted by Ant67
Won’t the cycle just repeat itself? Glad Italy may have peaked but that is with serious lock down. What happens next?

Originally Posted by Ant67
Won’t the cycle just repeat itself? Glad Italy may have peaked but that is with serious lock down. What happens next?

The next 4 days will let us know for sure but I’m not so sure it will. We might have a another 1-2 uptick butas of right now the spread of the virus is slowing which is a good sign.

Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3084277
03/30/20 09:31 AM
03/30/20 09:31 AM
Joined: Apr 2015
Posts: 3,286
Hartselle, AL
N
NWALJM Offline
10 point
NWALJM  Offline
10 point
N
Joined: Apr 2015
Posts: 3,286
Hartselle, AL
I'll take any hopeful news I can get, thanks for sharing

Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3084293
03/30/20 10:13 AM
03/30/20 10:13 AM
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 7,155
In The Stack
G
General Offline
14 point
General  Offline
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Posts: 7,155
In The Stack
I'm just an old country boy but I would imagine it would spread much slower in Alabama than a lot of states which would lead to the peak being a little later.


"I'd rather go down the river with seven studs than with a hundred ****heads"
- Colonel Charlie Beckwith
Founder Delta Force
Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: joshm28] #3084303
03/30/20 10:30 AM
03/30/20 10:30 AM
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 25,065
Guntersville, AL
IDOT Offline
I am Cornholio
IDOT  Offline
I am Cornholio
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 25,065
Guntersville, AL
Originally Posted by joshm28
Originally Posted by Ant67
Won’t the cycle just repeat itself? Glad Italy may have peaked but that is with serious lock down. What happens next?

Originally Posted by Ant67
Won’t the cycle just repeat itself? Glad Italy may have peaked but that is with serious lock down. What happens next?

The next 4 days will let us know for sure but I’m not so sure it will. We might have a another 1-2 uptick butas of right now the spread of the virus is slowing which is a good sign.


It's not "Slowing" it's building. The death toll dropped yesterday and I hope it stays that way, I'm guessing it'll be through the roof today though.

27th: 18,691 new cases
28th: 19,452 new cases
29th: 19.913 new cases


Originally Posted by Patricia Heaton
If you’re a common sense person, you probably don’t feel you have a home in this world right now. If you’re a Christian, you know you were never meant to.


Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: IDOT] #3084347
03/30/20 11:42 AM
03/30/20 11:42 AM
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375
Jasper, AL
J
joshm28 Offline
14 point
joshm28  Offline
14 point
J
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375
Jasper, AL
Originally Posted by IDOT
Originally Posted by joshm28
Originally Posted by Ant67
Won’t the cycle just repeat itself? Glad Italy may have peaked but that is with serious lock down. What happens next?

Originally Posted by Ant67
Won’t the cycle just repeat itself? Glad Italy may have peaked but that is with serious lock down. What happens next?

The next 4 days will let us know for sure but I’m not so sure it will. We might have a another 1-2 uptick butas of right now the spread of the virus is slowing which is a good sign.


It's not "Slowing" it's building. The death toll dropped yesterday and I hope it stays that way, I'm guessing it'll be through the roof today though.

27th: 18,691 new cases
28th: 19,452 new cases
29th: 19.913 new cases


Day over day growth of new cases is slowing. 10 days ago it was doubling every day. It’s not now. I’m not saying this is over in the next couple days. I’m saying it’s possible we are getting to the point where new daily cases level off then start a decline.

Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3084363
03/30/20 12:05 PM
03/30/20 12:05 PM

S
sgtred
Unregistered
sgtred
Unregistered
S


Unfortunately you are wrong,CDC folks looked concerned,I will go with what they say.

Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: ] #3084365
03/30/20 12:06 PM
03/30/20 12:06 PM
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 9,340
Jackson County
B
BrentM Offline
Mr. Turkey
BrentM  Offline
Mr. Turkey
B
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 9,340
Jackson County
Originally Posted by sgtred
Unfortunately you are wrong,CDC folks looked concerned,I will go with what they say.



Yep always trust the government

Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: joshm28] #3084367
03/30/20 12:09 PM
03/30/20 12:09 PM
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,833
Andalusia, Covington County, A...
TexasHuntress Offline
14 point
TexasHuntress  Offline
14 point
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 8,833
Andalusia, Covington County, A...
Originally Posted by joshm28
Originally Posted by IDOT
Originally Posted by joshm28
Originally Posted by Ant67
Won’t the cycle just repeat itself? Glad Italy may have peaked but that is with serious lock down. What happens next?

Originally Posted by Ant67
Won’t the cycle just repeat itself? Glad Italy may have peaked but that is with serious lock down. What happens next?

The next 4 days will let us know for sure but I’m not so sure it will. We might have a another 1-2 uptick butas of right now the spread of the virus is slowing which is a good sign.


It's not "Slowing" it's building. The death toll dropped yesterday and I hope it stays that way, I'm guessing it'll be through the roof today though.

27th: 18,691 new cases
28th: 19,452 new cases
29th: 19.913 new cases


Day over day growth of new cases is slowing. 10 days ago it was doubling every day. It’s not now. I’m not saying this is over in the next couple days. I’m saying it’s possible we are getting to the point where new daily cases level off then start a decline.


That would have to assume that people actually learned something about keeping a buffer zone around oneself, not crowding up, washing hands thoroughly, not touching faces, etc., and I just do not know that enough people have learned that and been doing it long enough to become a habit. I think if people just go right back to conducting social lives like they did that there will be another spike, but that is just my thoughts. I could be wrong.


If you live to be a hundred, I want to live to be a hundred minus one day, so I never have to live without you.---Winnie the Pooh
Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3084392
03/30/20 12:47 PM
03/30/20 12:47 PM
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375
Jasper, AL
J
joshm28 Offline
14 point
joshm28  Offline
14 point
J
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,375
Jasper, AL
I realize my prediction goes against everything the mainstream media is saying. With that being said the WHO, CDC, and multiple other agencies have way OVER estimated the projections to date. I’m not making these predictions as part of my job responsibilities. I just did it for my own curiosity and decided to share. Maybe sharing on here was a bad idea.

I’m sure there’s multiple individuals on here who completely disagree with my forecast and I’m good with that. It’s nothing more than MY personal idea as to what will come of this. Nothing more and nothing less.

Last edited by joshm28; 03/30/20 12:49 PM.
Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: joshm28] #3084395
03/30/20 12:48 PM
03/30/20 12:48 PM
Joined: Aug 2018
Posts: 3,884
Montgomery, Alabama
B
bama1971 Offline
10 point
bama1971  Offline
10 point
B
Joined: Aug 2018
Posts: 3,884
Montgomery, Alabama
Originally Posted by joshm28
I realize my prediction goes against everything the mainstream media is saying. With that being said the WHO, CDC, and multiple other agencies have way OVER estimated the numbers to date. I’m not making these predictions as part of my job responsibilities. I just did it for my own curiosity and decided to share. Maybe sharing on here was a bad idea.


I appreciate your research. I hope you’re correct

Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: joshm28] #3084397
03/30/20 12:50 PM
03/30/20 12:50 PM
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 7,155
In The Stack
G
General Offline
14 point
General  Offline
14 point
G
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 7,155
In The Stack
The
Originally Posted by joshm28
I realize my prediction goes against everything the mainstream media is saying. With that being said the WHO, CDC, and multiple other agencies have way OVER estimated the projections to date. I’m not making these predictions as part of my job responsibilities. I just did it for my own curiosity and decided to share. Maybe sharing on here was a bad idea.

I’m sure there’s multiple individuals on here who completely disagree with my forecast and I’m good with that. It’s nothing more than MY personal idea as to what will come of this. Nothing more and nothing less.


Thank you for posting what you have put together I think I speak for the vast majority here that we appreciate your input.


"I'd rather go down the river with seven studs than with a hundred ****heads"
- Colonel Charlie Beckwith
Founder Delta Force
Re: The numbers were a tool [Re: bill] #3084398
03/30/20 12:52 PM
03/30/20 12:52 PM
Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 36,092
alabama
BhamFred Offline
Freak of Nature
BhamFred  Offline
Freak of Nature
Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 36,092
alabama
I personally don't believe a damn word coming out of the Chinese owned WHO.


I've spent most of the money I've made in my lifetime on hunting and fishing. The rest I just wasted.....

proud Cracker-Americaan

muslims are like coyotes, only good one is a dead one
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