Some of us have been saying this for 2 weeks. The model that created all the panic, with huge, ridiculous numbers is backtracking now and has reduced their orginal projections for the UK from 500,000 dead to 20,000 dead. These are the people you trusted? We have been scammed and some of you bought in, hook line and sinker. By the way, 3.2 million more Americans filed for unemployment, last week. We are a freaking brain dead society and deserve what's coming for trusting our sovereignty to people that hate us.
Link to article at the bottom of the commentary.


From Steve Deace:
Unless Jesus chooses today to return, you will not learn more important news than what I am about to share with you, I promise.

#Coronavirus is vicious. Don't forget that.

However, the real contagion here was the panic caused by folks like Imperial College. We were among the first to confront their models showing millions dead, and expose their university activism at their heart of their worldview bias.

Now, the man who oversaw their simulations is waving the white flag.

His simulation said 500,000 people would die in the UK alone. Now he's saying it will be under 20,000. As I told you they would, he's trying to save face by claiming the social distancing he advised saved the UK. Except the UK was among the last to implement it, so there's no way it's had time to flatten their curve so dramatically.

No, he's either a fraud or something much worse. Don't ever forget who these people are, and what they tried to do to your way of life. Ever. Short of salvation, they are never to be trusted again.

Here's the truth. The real contagion here was the panic caused by the likes of Imperial College, which was adopted whole cloth by the "experts" at face value without any scrutiny, and then amplified by our hysterical media.

His simulation said 500,000 people would die in the UK alone. Now he's saying it will be under 20,000. Just a bit outside.

As I told you they would once the truth came out, he's now trying to save face by claiming the social distancing he advised saved the UK. Except the UK was among the last to implement it, so there's no way it's had time to flatten their curve so much.

The panic was BS. All. Of. It.

Thank God that He lets us live in a country with the freedom to ask the critical questions, and the next time this is tried let's resolve to not so easily surrender those freedoms without more information.

Praise God this was exposed now, before it could've done incalculable damage to our way of life with another several weeks if not months to poison us.

Needless to say, this needs to be shared everywhere.


https://www.newscientist.com/articl...e-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

Any original and updated numbers on US cases?

I’m not sure if you could classify them as an overreaction yet could you? Or even at all. From what my simple mind understands it was a novel virus, meaning from animals, so we had no idea how it would react or mutate or anything. If someone in the medical field built a model they’re going to be on the conservative side for safety reasons, to avoid inherent risks. They can’t decide for a government how they react to that model. The model and the government’s reaction to the model are mutually exclusive.

I do think that once this virus started affecting the economy the Democrats saw it as a way to somehow help their chances for re-election but I don’t think the information was being rolled out in the beginning intentionally sensationalized from the medical professionals, I believe they were just preparing for the worst while hoping for the best.

Did you read the numbers? They have adjusted the numbers down from the ridiculous 500,000 estimate to 20,000. So 480,000 less than originally thought. Why would anyone trust anything they put out after that?

Original model numbers I saw projected that 150,000,000 (basically half the US population) would get it in the US and the death rate would be around 3%, if I'm remembering correctly. Nobody is showing the new models that I can find.

I know that Gov Andrew Cuomo was saying, as late as Monday morning, that they expected over half the NY state population, or 10,000,000 New Yorkers, to come down with it (Note: ten million projected cases and they are sitting 37,000 cases right now so they have a ways to go) Then Monday he said that "the number of new cases daily" was doubling every 2 days, then on Tuesday he said it was doubling every 2.7 days then this morning, he said "It appears almost too good to be true but the numbers now show it is only doubling every 4.7 days." It is definitely slowing down based on that data. Especially given the massive ramp up in additional testing that has been going on from Monday until now which should be generating a significantly higher daily number of additional positive cases.

The near total economic shut down was unnecessary.

People are slow to admit they were wrong or were taken in by the hype. There is a segment that will rationalize with the " better safe than sorry" mantra without considering the impact the overreaction had on the economy and the future of our country.

Did someone on ALDeer order the economic shutdown or something?

Public perception helps shape policy. Our government bought in too , and I believe, felt forced into an overly cautionary reaction to the predictions. . I'm hopeful that , based on what he's said, Trump is ready to get the country back to work and ignore the hysteria and nonsense that will follow. Some even from people who would otherwise support him.

Its still going to be a while....at least the DG's and Walmarts are full of people all getting in the same line.

Anytime there is a catastrophe there is always one school of thought that says prevent the worst case scenario and then hope for the best. I, on the other hand, prefer the school of thought in Incident Command that says plan for what is realistic but be fluid and prepared to deal with worse.


I went to DG an hour ago and it was well stocked except for cleaning supplies according to the sign on the door, not crowded at all, and myself and the two others in line respected each others distance and this was in Selma where rudeness is a way of life for about half the population (of both predominate races, if anyone is reading something into that remark that is not intended)

In today’s world don’t governments have to be overly cautious..... that’s risk assessment 101 or should I say liability 101. I have to ask are you a medical professional or a reader of internet material? I ask because you just sound so angry at someone in your posts. If you’re talking to someone specific address them but I’m not sure writing as if everyone in the world was wrong but you is the way to get anyone to listen to your point of view.

Here is another article that states that the Imperial College's models directly influenced our Government's reaction. Unreal.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...8-months-covid-19-social-distancing-much

I'm not a medical professional so maybe I'm not qualified to have an opinion but this model influenced the medical community, too.

To the other poster above you, damn right I'm angry that we've let people who hate us influence our nation's policies and create irrational fears that have put the economy on life support.

Perfect Answer---- I JUST DON'T KNOW ABOUT ALL
OF THIS!!

As said, just hope there's no dramatic mutation later.

And I hope it doesn't rear it's ugly head when cool
weather hits later in the year.

Imagine a like button here.

I think folks that panic are responsible for panicking. Just because someone tells you to panic don't mean you got to.I don't trust stats ,never have , never will ,the are compiled by humans. I do believe this virus was a public health threat that , public health measures , needed to take place.

Out Backs silence is deafening...I think he was the original "I told you so" on here...just saying.

It was all BS from the beginning...the panic, the numbers...yes it needs attention and precautions but 2, or 3 weeks ago..a month..the hype was off the charts..now we see it was all pretty much crap.

I wouldn't call what's happening in New York, New Orleans crap.

This

More places than that. A lot of people are dying. It’s amazing there are morons on here still denying that it’s actually happening

New York has 55% of all cases in the country.

No one is denying that it isnt happening. It's just not to the extent that the media/world is making you believe.

Its amazing that there are still morons on here that are making a biger deal out of the wuhan flu than drowning, which is killing several times as many people as the wuhan flu. Why arent the drowning victims getting any attention? 150000 people died today and another 150000 will die tomorrow, this has been going on for a long time and the wuhan flu isnt changing that number enough to be significant.

I haven’t asked the media/world

And ; 2 weeks ago, DeBlasio( what an idiot) was openly telling New Yorkers to go about their business if they did not have symptoms. That afternoon the NBA pulled it's players off the court.
Now he blames it on Trumps lack of support and their hospitals are overwhelmed and temporary morgues are being set up.
DeBlasio is a POS.

Surely you don’t believe that, do you?

You need to get off Facebook or Twitter or wherever you get stats

You think 54,750,000 people drown a year?

You seem like a shucks starter. Most of the stuff you read on the internet in regards to this is not accurate.

yes he is. They begged him to close the subway then i week later it’s all trumps fault. Pos

https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death

The numbers are there, I dont do the facebook or twitter. 150,000 people die every day, almost 1000 of those drown. When the new article comes out for 2020, wuhan flu will be on there probably but at the bottom of the list. Not sure but I would guess of the 150,000 people who died today on earth, less than 1% of them died of the wuhan flu.

And your point is? Do nothing. Do a little, it's all a conspiracy ?

Ha, yes. 150,000 die everyday, and more than that are born

You made it sound like that many people drown

Why are y’all fighting over a virus? That’s probably what the people in power want us doing..... what they fear most is a united populous. Big thing to remember is that all men are equally valuable in God’s eyes, not one more than the other. It would do a lot of good if we all remembered that.

Didnt mean to. My point is that this virus is just a blip on the radar. Sure its bad but not bad enough to shut a country down. Ive heard several people say "weve never seen anything like this before", as if wuhan flu is killing more people than any other disease ever has. Theres just no way any reasonable person could look at the real numbers in comparison to other diseases which can be fatal and not admit the media and our givt is blowing this way out of proportion. Heck just look at the proportions, I gave you the chart.

And bitching about it , solves what, stops what ?

I reckon ive got about as much a right to speak as any of the 147000 reporters, doctors and politicians everybody is listening to.

I thought I've been very clear on my position but maybe I haven't. I advocate for rapid and accessible testing for all symptomatic people plus those at highest risk. No large gatherings,, such as sporting events . Ask those at highest risk to self quarantine for as long as the threat is significant. Basically, follow the South Korean model which has been highly effective. Do those things and get the country back to work and the economy back rolling , immediately. We went from 3 5% unemployment to 30% almost, overnight. We can't allow models and projections to destroy the economy and our way of life when the numbers don't support it. The model that started the hysteria has been proven wrong and the architect has adjusted the UK projected number of dead down from 500k to 20k. Why would anyone take them seriously, ever again? It's my belief that the virus is real, be it man made or not. It's also my belief that, as with the model I already mentioned, that numbers have been manipulated and fabricated to incite panic and further agendas. in my opinion, that's being proven out, right now.

I get you. Scientist and statisticians tend to overreact. Make judgements based on data. In my my opinion data alone never tells the whole story. Data driven decisions are based in one thing ,and never take into account the ramifications that the decisions made will have in other things. For every action ,there is a reaction. Sometimes it take years to see it. This was no different. Just your standard lurching back and forth that always happens. No such thing as a perfect world, perfect govt, or perfect people.

Ain't no doubt that folks will need an economy to come back to. Waste of time if there isn't one. Kinda a catch 22. I figure , none of us would do any better a job if we were in charge. Lot different ,when your top dog, real easy to armchair QB, and the worldwide Intranet has created billions of armchair QBs , College coaching experts etc

This exactly

Viruses will always be around and there’s nothin we can do to stop them, I have enjoyed less people on the roads.

Another one of these....ok.

I know this event has created more experts in the field of epidemiology than will die of the coronavirus.

People are capable of doing something about drowning.
1. They can learn to swin
2. They can avoid water.

You do not have those options with an invisible virus that does not present symptoms until several days after infection occurs.
If the government acted on a single report or data point that says more about the government than it does about the people who create the models. You can read the imperial college report and should takeit for what it was, an idea of what could happen, not the gospel of what will happen. You found it on the internet, do not believe EVERYTHING you read on the internet.

If you aren't bother or scared by the virus I'm sure their are likemided people with whom you can trade and sell your good and services to. If you believe this is BS, then spend you quarantine time writing down the list of business that you will NOT do business with because they dont align with your principals.

Personally, I think it's way to early to come to any kind of conclusion. Your dead if you're one of 20000 or 500000. So far I'm not and I hope to keep it that way. You stay the hell away from me and ill stay the hell away from you. At 73 I'm considered high risk of complications and I'd rather not test fate

Statisticians didn’t over react to this. Or most didn’t. I would consider myself in this group. I made my predictions based on real data in other countries and what it did in the US the first 10-12 days. I’ve been saying for a week that we I’ll peak early next week in daily new cases. I still stand by that prediction. You are correct in data never tells the complete story. However if one uses the correct data set then one can make fairly accurate predictions.

When you say we will peak early next week ,are you referring to the country as a whole.

Yes. The daily NEW cases is still increasing exponentially. Sometimes next week it will peak and start a downward trend.

ol bill was right again. To tell the truth i was on the verge of freaking out, until you started posting. Although i didnt agree, i considered the fact the you was probably right, which helped me relax, a little.

Still curious why everyone is talking about this in past tense

So in Alabama will it peak next week

Serious question. How can you approximate a peak, and downtrend, without knowing when patient zero, occurred? We have no way of knowing the true origin date, in this country.

So I must ask, because I truly don't know. Based on the changing of the imperial college guys numbers and the numbers y'all think were more accurate all along, what would you do differently ,than what has been done.

Also, my understanding of these models ,they were based on if nothing is done.No mitigation, just let it ride.

I ran the numbers based on a known number of 150 confirmed cases (by country) it’s definitely not perfect but when you look at each countries numbers it shows a definitive trend of 22-25 days to peak of new cases. Plot everything on a logarithmic graph and it shows the virus is slowing down as far as new cases per day, in both the global numbers and individual country numbers.

It’s an educated guess but the trends don’t lie. The outbreak hit different countries at different times so there’s plenty of data out there to base this on. Look at the logarithmic graphs for each country and you will see what I’m talking about

Thanks.

I believe it was in this country well before anyone knew it. I believe it was in Alabama well before anyone sounded the alarm. It has a 7-12 day incubation period. We have no idea how many people are carrying it around today and don't know it. They feel fine. They won't feel fine in a few days. It is going to take several weeks of social distancing before we (hopefully) see the curve slow its rapid ascent. China really screwed us on this thing. I hope we remember that as we go forward.

Viruses don't like that bright sunshine (UV). Get out in it.

Am I going to get an answer on when Alabama peaks ?

2+ more weeks

That don't jive ,with what the stat expert says. He says Tuesday the 6 th, done run numbers

If you are referencing me I never said anything about Alabama. My prediction was based on the entire country. It’s feasible the new daily cases for the country are declining while some smaller geographic areas are still increasing.

Look I ran the numbers strictly because you absolutely can not trust the mainstream media. I was curious more than anything what a trend would look like. So I started running the numbers. Nothing more nothing less. If I get it right then we all will be in a much better mood a week from today. Lord knows we need something positive right now.

I was , asked once already, and no Alabama won't peak by Tuesday, neither will the US. Too many large metropolitan areas, that haven't got hot yet., Appears mitigation is working, otherwise all the metropolitan hubs would all be hot at once, which they are not.

Bump

So most of you guys know I’ve been predicting the PEAK for the US one day this week. With that being said I wanted to share some numbers and graphs from the weekend. As of this morning things are not quite as doom and gloom as the media portrays it. Italy is on its 4th consecutive day of declining daily new cases. This could be a fantastic sign for them as the virus is stabilizing to a degree in that country.

As for the US numbers. Could we be reaching the peak of daily new cases? Yesterday was the FIRST day in over a week in which the daily new cases actually shrunk.



In addition there was a 50% reduction in daily deaths yesterday.




Was the past couple days just a blip in the data? Possibly but I don’t think so. I’ve been wrong many times in my life though. I do know for a fact 5hat the exponential growth of the daily new cases is lower than what I forecast over a week ago. (It’s definitely not spreading quite as fast. I pray it continues this trend.

Won’t the cycle just repeat itself? Glad Italy may have peaked but that is with serious lock down. What happens next?

Kinda what I was thinking

So is Trump wrong now?

I may be thinking about it incorrectly but how could Trump be wrong, its not like he ran the analysis himself.

The next 4 days will let us know for sure but I’m not so sure it will. We might have a another 1-2 uptick butas of right now the spread of the virus is slowing which is a good sign.

I'll take any hopeful news I can get, thanks for sharing

I'm just an old country boy but I would imagine it would spread much slower in Alabama than a lot of states which would lead to the peak being a little later.

It's not "Slowing" it's building. The death toll dropped yesterday and I hope it stays that way, I'm guessing it'll be through the roof today though.

27th: 18,691 new cases
28th: 19,452 new cases
29th: 19.913 new cases

Day over day growth of new cases is slowing. 10 days ago it was doubling every day. It’s not now. I’m not saying this is over in the next couple days. I’m saying it’s possible we are getting to the point where new daily cases level off then start a decline.

Unfortunately you are wrong,CDC folks looked concerned,I will go with what they say.

Yep always trust the government

That would have to assume that people actually learned something about keeping a buffer zone around oneself, not crowding up, washing hands thoroughly, not touching faces, etc., and I just do not know that enough people have learned that and been doing it long enough to become a habit. I think if people just go right back to conducting social lives like they did that there will be another spike, but that is just my thoughts. I could be wrong.

I realize my prediction goes against everything the mainstream media is saying. With that being said the WHO, CDC, and multiple other agencies have way OVER estimated the projections to date. I’m not making these predictions as part of my job responsibilities. I just did it for my own curiosity and decided to share. Maybe sharing on here was a bad idea.

I’m sure there’s multiple individuals on here who completely disagree with my forecast and I’m good with that. It’s nothing more than MY personal idea as to what will come of this. Nothing more and nothing less.

I appreciate your research. I hope you’re correct

The

Thank you for posting what you have put together I think I speak for the vast majority here that we appreciate your input.

I personally don't believe a damn word coming out of the Chinese owned WHO.

Agree 100 percent, WHO owned by China, Now our CDC, Fauci and Birx, they have been pushed and prrodded by the media, they have always hedged their bets ,would not commit to any projections, Birx even talked about the tyranny of averages.,and models were only as good as the input. They have yet to make a ,it will be this much prediction. Alabama cases and deaths and infections not declining ,but rising,and definitely will not peak Tuesday as stated before here. All this rip and roaring about this thing and the validity of everything is not helping the situation one darn bit.Even if Fauci and Birx are off, they aren't off that much. Y'all keep your heads in the sand, Keep trying to minimize this thing, enjoy I am out of this madness. Good Bye.

You reading comp skills need work. I NEVER said Alabama would peak this week.

Bad flu year = 500 thousand deaths
Coronavirus so far = 37 thousand deaths

Fraid you did. Moderators tell me how or take me off this place. Early next week, was what you said 3-27 anything after Tuesday is ,midweek or later.

Except it’s 12,000-61,000

Please try to keep up. The numbers in my post are worldwide.

If you can only think in terms of one country, we can do it that way so you can understand.

United States bad flu year = 62 thousand
United States Coronavirus deaths so far = 2.9 thousand

"The Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has dismissed the global health crisis as a "psychosis", and refuses to impose a lockdown. He encouraged his citizens to work on the land.

With less than 100 positive cases and no deaths in Belarus, Lukashenko this week suggested "there shouldn't be any panic" over the virus."

I could not agree with him more.

https://sports.yahoo.com/belarus-pl...irus-football-league-185531425--sow.html

“Twitter recently announced the expansion of its rules to cover content that could be against public health information provided by official sources"

So - if you disagree with the ministry of propaganda - be aware your tweets may well be deleted. It just gets better and better. I would have bet against our world getting to this point over a bad flu year.

Go back and read again. I said I THINK us numbers peak this week (daily new cases) and it was entirely possible geographic pockets could continue to increase in spite of Country numbers peaking. Big difference in what you are claiming I said .

This is a discussion board. You will always find conflicting viewpoints. But if you want to take your ball and go home then that’s your decision.

Do you live in other countries?

Coronavirus in the US will push 100,000 deaths. People need to get ready

Reality: none of us know. The government doesn’t know. The CDC doesn’t know. It’s just something to argue about and y’all are doing a fine job of that

Do you think this country is the only one affected? Of course I do.

Get ready for something 1.6 times as bad as a rough flu year (using your number of 100 thousand - kind of doubt it but we will see)? We need to calm down and get on with life. There's no way to stop it, no way to slow it down. It's going to do whatever it does with or without burning the world down.

Fear is free. Take as much as you want or can stand but please don't use the government to inflict it upon me.

Thanks Geno

Any numbers you see from me will only be cases of death. Modelling based on such a short run of data has too much potential for error in my opinion.



Anytime Josh.

Pretty interesting to track the potential spread, graphically over time, from one beach during spring break across the country.

https://www.al.com/coronavirus/2020...k-beach-during-coronavirus-pandemic.html

Whitehouse hoping for only 100,000 - 200,000 US deaths IF people listen and quarantine

Keep the head in the sand guys. Have fun.

Worldwide deaths are currently at 37,612. Most countries have peaked and are headed down. Please show the good people of aldeer where quarantine has worked. Just one country would do it for me.

Belarus refused to quarantine and they have less than 100 cases and no deaths. Most of their population has been tested. Unlike the US where lass than 1 person in 8 thousand has been. The US being the last to have it is utter bull chit. We were the last (and the most inefficient) to test.

So you're trying to tell us that the US will have three to six times more deaths than the whole world combined has had in five months?

37,743 now globally - not just in our country. I'm no globalist by a long shot but global things should be spoken of in a global context.

I don't think bama1971 is telling you that; the scientists on the Covid-19 task force are telling us that; right or wrong. TBD

Is the Chinese government known for being truthful on a good day?
Why should the number of deaths out of China be taken as legitimate?

Swedens deaths have risen 50% in 2 days; since article written. The have 2.5 times the population of Alabama and 12 times the deaths, so far. Good strategy? TBD

Can you give a sysnopsis? Not all of us want to subscribe to the NYT.

Article available for me; no sub

Sweden is doing quarantine lite and we will have to wait and see how that turns out.

Belarus is also rejecting a complete national lockdown as hysteria and psychosis.

Chinese numbers are all lies so completely unreliable.

However, one interesting thing is to divide the total confirmed cases by the number of deaths.

USA : 3148/163,479 = .019.

World (that includes China's alleged numbers): 37,780/784,381 = .048

And it must be kept in mind that the number of known cases is less then the total number of infected people.

Those numbers come from www.worldodometers.info

If you're using that to determine death rate, that's just bad math. You have to use CLOSED cases not totatl.


Coronavirus Cases:
163,490
Deaths:
3,148
Recovered:
5,506

Except we have no clue how many people have already had and recovered from the virus that were never tested