I thought I've been very clear on my position but maybe I haven't. I advocate for rapid and accessible testing for all symptomatic people plus those at highest risk. No large gatherings,, such as sporting events . Ask those at highest risk to self quarantine for as long as the threat is significant. Basically, follow the South Korean model which has been highly effective. Do those things and get the country back to work and the economy back rolling , immediately. We went from 3 5% unemployment to 30% almost, overnight. We can't allow models and projections to destroy the economy and our way of life when the numbers don't support it. The model that started the hysteria has been proven wrong and the architect has adjusted the UK projected number of dead down from 500k to 20k. Why would anyone take them seriously, ever again? It's my belief that the virus is real, be it man made or not. It's also my belief that, as with the model I already mentioned, that numbers have been manipulated and fabricated to incite panic and further agendas. in my opinion, that's being proven out, right now.

I get you. Scientist and statisticians tend to overreact. Make judgements based on data. In my my opinion data alone never tells the whole story. Data driven decisions are based in one thing ,and never take into account the ramifications that the decisions made will have in other things. For every action ,there is a reaction. Sometimes it take years to see it. This was no different. Just your standard lurching back and forth that always happens. No such thing as a perfect world, perfect govt, or perfect people.

When you say we will peak early next week ,are you referring to the country as a whole.

Yes. The daily NEW cases is still increasing exponentially. Sometimes next week it will peak and start a downward trend.

Statisticians didn’t over react to this. Or most didn’t. I would consider myself in this group. I made my predictions based on real data in other countries and what it did in the US the first 10-12 days. I’ve been saying for a week that we I’ll peak early next week in daily new cases. I still stand by that prediction. You are correct in data never tells the complete story. However if one uses the correct data set then one can make fairly accurate predictions.

Serious question. How can you approximate a peak, and downtrend, without knowing when patient zero, occurred? We have no way of knowing the true origin date, in this country.

I ran the numbers based on a known number of 150 confirmed cases (by country) it’s definitely not perfect but when you look at each countries numbers it shows a definitive trend of 22-25 days to peak of new cases. Plot everything on a logarithmic graph and it shows the virus is slowing down as far as new cases per day, in both the global numbers and individual country numbers.

It’s an educated guess but the trends don’t lie. The outbreak hit different countries at different times so there’s plenty of data out there to base this on. Look at the logarithmic graphs for each country and you will see what I’m talking about

Am I going to get an answer on when Alabama peaks ?