EDIT- the link is wanting you to subscribe to read but if you Google - Wall Street Journal Southern Timber, you can see the entire article. (Couple of AL guys named)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/thousa...-for-retirement-it-didnt-work-1539095250

Wanted to see what some of the foresters and landowners thought about this article.

I participated in the Longleaf Initiative 5 years ago and planted approx 25 acres with the Gov’t funds. My goal was to turn an abandoned agriculture field into wildlife habitat, not depending on the return for college funding or retirement though.

Someone posted it in another thread. I thought it was very well researched and presented a good picture of what is going on in forestry in the south now. I hope conditions improve.

If you just cleared some, what would you do? Spend 200.00/acre to spray and replant or spend that money to open it up for pasture or crops??? Or let it grow back in scrubby hardwood?

I thought Lumber prices were sky high so who's getting rich? Why prices crash if they really did?

Sawmills and brokers. Loggers and landowners are sucking hind tit!

Think about timberland subsidies. Taxpayer money (yours and mine) is redistributed to individual landowners as incentive to grow timber, enhance habitat, reduce erosion, etc. Big difference between incentive vs. guaranteed capital gains 30 years later. Who can blame a landowner for enrolling every qualifying acre in a federal subsidy program such as Forest Incentive Program and Conservation Stewardship Program? But the landowner assumes the risk for a timber crop. Growing timber is a risky investment and there are no guarantees come harvest time.

Timber prices in this area are awful compared to what they were in the early 80s. We planted 80 acres in 85 thinking we were going to make a killing. Lumber and wood products are a lot higher, timber prices not so much.

Problem with clearing and returning to pasture is that it's WAY more than $200/acre. And if you let it grow up, it won't be hardwood, it'll be all thick pine and Sweetgum regeneration.

Stumpage prices are driven by demand and supply.

I can think off the top of my head of at least 5 paper mills between AL & MS that have shut down in the past 15 years or so. Rough estimate at least 10 million tons of demand per year. Really no new greenfield startups as it’s nearly impossible to permit a new paper mill.

Finally staring to see some new solid wood mills coming online which should begin to increase sawlog stumpage prices. Some existing paper mills are expanding capacity which will drive puplwood stumpage prices up in some localized areas. However for areas that lack the local markets (North AL & MS) the impacts will likely be minimal.

In my little area of the state (pike co) you can still buy dirt for $1000-$1200/acre. You have to look hard but its still out there. This is cutover land, no timber value, not improved pasture. If its 4-5 yo cutover, plan on $200/acre to have it windrowed. I have a boomless setup that I use to spray with my tractor, so I get to save part of the $110/acre for chemical site prep. I will still have the chemical costs which were around $40/acre if I remember correctly. Plan on $86/acre for mechanical planting, not including seedlings. Loblolly elite seedling from Arborgen run about $80/1000. At 605 trees/acre this adds nearly $50/acre to the $86/acre for the dozers. I have a tract being windrowed right now and it looks good enough I think I can re-plant it using my tractor and tree planter.

I doubt converting the land to pasture would cost more than what I will have in the site prep and cleanup as the crew windrowing right now is doing an excellent job. But I know I don't have time to raise cows or hay production. Definitely not enough tie for row crops. So in my situation timber is the only alternative that "should" give me some return on investment.

I should have less than $300/acre in the site prep and planting of this stand of trees, assuming I am able to do the planting and spraying with my equipment. Hopefully I will get that back at the first thinning. Then I should have a 2nd thinning and a clear cut that should cover the cost of the land purchase and hopefully some profit.

Now for the real important part. Lord willing I will re-plant after I clear cut then give this tract to my kids with young seedlings already on it. They will reap the real financial benefits. And along the way I will have had the pleasure of hunting/land management.

What’s benefit of windrowing? Seems like it’s piling up all organic matter on site. We have logger scatter logging debris during harvest, spray and hand plant into trash.

Natural growth was too thick and tall to get an effective kill with chemical site prep. So I'm having it cleaned off. The benefit is that I'll be left with a clean enough tract for me to replant.
Personally I don't live the debris scattered. It makes it hard to walk while turkey hunting. I prefer to have my tops piled at the ramps so I can burn them

We try to get a fire through scattered debris before planting

I'm never lucky enough to get a hot fire and scorch the earth like I want. It would be nice though

I did mechanical site prep in 02 on a 40 that we cleared. It was windrowed for 100.00 an acre but I said that would be my last resort from now on. I couldn't stand (and still can't) to see all that top soil pushed up in piles, and it really made a mess of the place. Worst management practice for the lands sake imo.
Now one of the best was an airline track that joins me. They let all the privet and gum come back, then sprayed and roll chopped weeks after it died with a big Dozier and planted through the "mat" of dead debri. It took that stuff forever to come back and compete with the pines and the roll chopper smoothed the place out. I really liked it, BUT it added an additional step/expense to the process. It's funny how old things come back around. You know people use to only cut hardwood down to a certain size (6" or so), and wouldn't actually clear the land. That way it's always growing. They'd also leave seed trees on pine stands instead of all the reforestation costs that goes on now.

I have bought thousands of acres from old Bowater back in the late 90s & early 2000s. You could tell on each tract where the deck was located. Trees were taller and a little bigger from the site prep fire. They also bedded the tracts. They had a lot of site prep costs but IMO it paid off in the end. 28-32 year old stand that was 75% CNS with good diameter and height. Man, I sure miss the business!

The bottom line is this... Timber isn't a good investment for the little guy. The returns are not there as compared to other investment opportunities. None are without risk and on a small tract you have a significant amount of risk in timber in my opinion. All your profit could easily get wiped out by weather or disease or pine beetles, etc. Moderate risk and moderate to low return.

If your goal is to invest in something but also do this for the recreational aspects, i.e. place to hunt, etc. That is ok. But from a larger investment standpoint this is not a great place to put your money.

I said this a few months back on here and several local experts were crying foul like their arse was on fire and tried to convince that is was not the case.... that timber is a great investment.

I guess it takes a WSJ article.

Exactly my thoughts.
It doesn't pay rent and it doesn't pay dividends. All while you've got 25 years of risk and paying property taxes on the land.

"They ain't makin more land." Yes I agree but a lot of land doesn't increase in value past inflation.
Some of course hits the big time and sells at $40,000 an area.

My goal is own land eventually but it would be strictly recreational.

If a persons sole purpose was return on investment then no timber is not the best.

I wasn't one who disagreed with you. I've been saying that timber is a bad investment for a long time now, and especially for the little guy. There was a time when you could buy timberland and stand a chance to make good money, but that probably ended about 2000 or so. Again, the problem is the lack of mill space. It doesn't matter what the global price of lumber may be; the mills can get all the wood they need without paying more. Part of the reason this has happened is because a few big companies bought out the smaller mills and then shut them down, so this situation isn't by accident.

But while I think timber is a bad investment, I think land will always be a good investment to some extent. It will always be worth something. I think it's good to own some, but not to put everything you have into it.