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Re: Storm Time II [Re: Fullthrottle] #2579259
09/14/18 12:46 PM
09/14/18 12:46 PM
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 44,687
Under a Rock
Clem Offline
Mildly Quirky
Clem  Offline
Mildly Quirky
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 44,687
Under a Rock

Hahahaha. No one in the truck or HQ was watching to tell him to quit being a douchebag.


"Hunting Politics are stupid!" - Farm Hunter

"Bible says you shouldn't put sugar in your cornbread." Dustin, 2013

Coach Gus Malzen will have the boys ready! -- Ben2
Re: Storm Time II [Re: bobwallace] #2579267
09/14/18 12:59 PM
09/14/18 12:59 PM
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 18,284
Clanton, AL
O
Out back Offline
Grumpy Old Man
Out back  Offline
Grumpy Old Man
O
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 18,284
Clanton, AL
Originally Posted by bobwallace
Originally Posted by Out back
I'd just to remind y'all that my wather dog's predictions (a week ago) were more accurate than all the meteorologists. Just saying.


Yeah.. the dog nailed it
rolleyes

Originally Posted by Out back
According to my wather dog, Florence is dead. Fizzled out. A dud.

Originally Posted by Out back
If it does form again it'll spin out into Atlantic, harmless.

Like I said, closer than the wather geeks

Re: Storm Time II [Re: Fullthrottle] #2579282
09/14/18 01:18 PM
09/14/18 01:18 PM
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,065
Marshall County
FurFlyin Offline
Freak of Nature
FurFlyin  Offline
Freak of Nature
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,065
Marshall County
My point was, a lot of people evacuated that are now most likely going to be in more danger driving home on flooded roads than they would have been if they’d have stayed home.

It just seems that weather forecasting is becoming more about Neilson ratings than it is about accuracy


If my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then will I hear from heaven and will forgive their sin and will heal their land. 2 Chronicles 7:14
Re: Storm Time II [Re: Out back] #2579285
09/14/18 01:21 PM
09/14/18 01:21 PM
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 2,440
Madison County
bobwallace Offline
10 point
bobwallace  Offline
10 point
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 2,440
Madison County
Originally Posted by Out back
Originally Posted by bobwallace
Originally Posted by Out back
I'd just to remind y'all that my wather dog's predictions (a week ago) were more accurate than all the meteorologists. Just saying.


Yeah.. the dog nailed it
rolleyes

Originally Posted by Out back
According to my wather dog, Florence is dead. Fizzled out. A dud.

Originally Posted by Out back
If it does form again it'll spin out into Atlantic, harmless.

Like I said, closer than the wather geeks


Closer as in it made landfall instead of spinning out in the Atlantic harmlessly?
You could call the families of the 3 people who have died in the storm so far and tell them the good news, that your dog's prediction was closer than the wather geeks.


Yeah, well, I always heard there were three kinds of suns in Kansas: sunshine, sunflowers, and sons-of-bitches.
Re: Storm Time II [Re: FurFlyin] #2579290
09/14/18 01:27 PM
09/14/18 01:27 PM
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 5,723
Andalusia, Covington County, A...
TexasHuntress Offline
12 point
TexasHuntress  Offline
12 point
Joined: Aug 2006
Posts: 5,723
Andalusia, Covington County, A...
Originally Posted by FurFlyin
My point was, a lot of people evacuated that are now most likely going to be in more danger driving home on flooded roads than they would have been if they’d have stayed home.

It just seems that weather forecasting is becoming more about Neilson ratings than it is about accuracy



I don’t think they are going to open the roads until the flooding recedes. That should mean that no one is going to be driving back home on flooded roads.


If you live to be a hundred, I want to live to be a hundred minus one day, so I never have to live without you.---Winnie the Pooh
Re: Storm Time II [Re: Fullthrottle] #2579305
09/14/18 01:46 PM
09/14/18 01:46 PM
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 3,241
A
abolt300 Offline
10 point
abolt300  Offline
10 point
A
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 3,241
I'm starting to wonder if when they are telling us that this hurricane has 140 mph winds, they are actually reporting what the highest wind gust reading they can find is. It used to be that they reported the highest "sustained winds" and that is what the hurricane strength classification was based on. You can have sustained winds of 110 with gusts to 140 or even 150. Something is fishy about these recent storms. The storm that went into Texas last year was classified as a CAT 4 (130-155 mph) at landfall but the highest recorded wind "gust" was 132 mph and the highest sustained winds on the sea buoys less than a mile offshore were only in the upper 80's at landfall. Actual wind damage less that 2 miles inshore would indicate that it certainly was not a 130+mph storm. There was a trailer park that the eye wall passed over, less than 1/2 mile inshore that sustained just minimal damage. A legit CAT 4 hurricane will turn a trailer park into a scrap yard in just a minute. Same with this one, it was a CAT 4 that they said dropped to at CAT 1 at the last minute, right before landfall, even though satellite imaging shows the eye wall tightening up just prior to landfall which generally means wind and strength intensification. Highest gust recorded so far on Florence is 105 mph.

Do you think that they are intentionally overstating the strengths of these storms in the name of public safety, after what happened with Katrina, because that is really the only way to get mass numbers of people to evacuate instead of them saying "well it's just a CAT 1 or 2 and we are going to just stay here and ride it out? It is safer for both the general population and the first responders if the people do evacuate. Not making light of it because any hurricane is a bad storm, just asking the question. Thoughts???

Re: Storm Time II [Re: Fullthrottle] #2579309
09/14/18 01:53 PM
09/14/18 01:53 PM
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 18,284
Clanton, AL
O
Out back Offline
Grumpy Old Man
Out back  Offline
Grumpy Old Man
O
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 18,284
Clanton, AL
What they're doing is crying wolf. Same thing they did with tornado warnings a few years ago.
Until James Spann (and others) began voicing concern for this sky-is-falling scenario, the county EMA would set off those tornado sirens anytime a dark cloud formed. Eventually people begin to say, "ah hell, it's just another tornado warning. Probably a false alarm".
It got so bad that a tornado warning meant there probably wasn't a tornado anywhere.
Now they're doing it with hurricanes. Pretty soon there will actually be a cat 5 and nobody will evacuate because they don't believe the wather geeks.

Re: Storm Time II [Re: abolt300] #2579329
09/14/18 02:24 PM
09/14/18 02:24 PM
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 3,371
Lake View, AL
Joe4majors Offline
10 point
Joe4majors  Offline
10 point
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 3,371
Lake View, AL
Originally Posted by abolt300
I'm starting to wonder if when they are telling us that this hurricane has 140 mph winds, they are actually reporting what the highest wind gust reading they can find is. It used to be that they reported the highest "sustained winds" and that is what the hurricane strength classification was based on. You can have sustained winds of 110 with gusts to 140 or even 150. Something is fishy about these recent storms. The storm that went into Texas last year was classified as a CAT 4 (130-155 mph) at landfall but the highest recorded wind "gust" was 132 mph and the highest sustained winds on the sea buoys less than a mile offshore were only in the upper 80's at landfall. Actual wind damage less that 2 miles inshore would indicate that it certainly was not a 130+mph storm. There was a trailer park that the eye wall passed over, less than 1/2 mile inshore that sustained just minimal damage. A legit CAT 4 hurricane will turn a trailer park into a scrap yard in just a minute. Same with this one, it was a CAT 4 that they said dropped to at CAT 1 at the last minute, right before landfall, even though satellite imaging shows the eye wall tightening up just prior to landfall which generally means wind and strength intensification. Highest gust recorded so far on Florence is 105 mph.

Do you think that they are intentionally overstating the strengths of these storms in the name of public safety, after what happened with Katrina, because that is really the only way to get mass numbers of people to evacuate instead of them saying "well it's just a CAT 1 or 2 and we are going to just stay here and ride it out? It is safer for both the general population and the first responders if the people do evacuate. Not making light of it because any hurricane is a bad storm, just asking the question. Thoughts???



Here are a few of my thoughts. Keep in mind that even a legit Category 5 storm started off as a cluster of thunderstorms just a week or two prior. I mention this because a hurricane by nature is prone to grow or weaken rapidly. Also keep in mind that these storms need the warm ocean water to grow of even maintain their strength. As soon as landfall occurs (even the outer bands) conditions are shifted toward weakening the storm. This includes wind speeds decreasing because the wind is now interacting with the land surface as opposed to the relatively smooth ocean surface. You're also probably comparing wind speeds from a plane several thousand feet above sea level vs. some instrument on a rooftop (thousands of feet lower). Every hurricane that has ever occurred has weakened due to landfall; Florence is no exception. From what I have seen, and I haven't followed it that closely, Florence was weakened by wind shear and pulling in dry air as it got near the shore. I see zero reason (short of conspiracy theories) that they would be reporting false wind speeds from planes flying directly through the storm (specifically days ago when it was still out to see and a Cat 4).

I don't watch national media or even national weather any more. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if they are hyping. A 24 hour news cycle is a great way to have to find something to talk about and make whatever more dramatic. I've got all the respect in the world for James Spann and Out back is spot on with the comparison to tornado warnings. I would stick to the National Hurricane Center's website for info straight from the horse's mouth. I saw where their landfall prediction from Sunday was within 2 miles of the actual landfall 5 days later. That said, they have cones of uncertainly for a reason and it's a complex mess that I'm glad I'm not trying to figure out.

Re: Storm Time II [Re: Fullthrottle] #2579346
09/14/18 02:50 PM
09/14/18 02:50 PM
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 3,241
A
abolt300 Offline
10 point
abolt300  Offline
10 point
A
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 3,241
I dont think that they are falsifying wind data. The question becomes, are they now classifying storms based on maximum sustained winds or off of the highest gust that they record? Gusts will always be higher by 30-50 mph. And yes, all those wind numbers above are at ground level and off of sea buoys or land based stations that the storm actually passed over, whereas most of the wind readings from the hurricane hunters are taken at much higher altitudes. One thing that I have noticed that made me ask the question and having been through more hurricanes and tropical storms than I can count over the years here in NW FL and South AL, is that they used to say that "this storm is a Cat 4 and it has sustained winds of 140 mph with gusts to 170". Now when they report on one, they say "it is a CAT 4 with 140 mph winds" you'll never hear them say sustained winds anymore. That's why I think they may be playing games with the CAT ratings to facilitate people making the right decision. There is a huge difference in a 110 mph sustained wind with gusts to 140 and an actual 140 mph sustained wind storm that will have much higher gusts in it. One blows down trees, leaves and limbs and the other sticks pine needles into bricks like they were darts. They aren't lying about the winds, it just seems like they might be changing the way they discuss the storms and classifications a little bit to elicit the response they want, which is always evacuation on a large storm.

Last edited by abolt300; 09/14/18 02:51 PM.
Re: Storm Time II [Re: Fullthrottle] #2579354
09/14/18 03:13 PM
09/14/18 03:13 PM
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 18,284
Clanton, AL
O
Out back Offline
Grumpy Old Man
Out back  Offline
Grumpy Old Man
O
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 18,284
Clanton, AL
Playing games with the cat rating is exactly where I have a major problem with this reporting.
It doesn't matter if they have good intentions to get people moving.
After this happens a few times it'll have the opposite effect.
People will say, "ah hell it's just a cat 4, probably a false alarm".

Re: Storm Time II [Re: Fullthrottle] #2579377
09/14/18 03:47 PM
09/14/18 03:47 PM
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 6,950
Mobile, AL
A
alhawk Offline
14 point
alhawk  Offline
14 point
A
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 6,950
Mobile, AL
There are many variables that can't be forecasted or seen that can cause a storm to fall apart. With that being said, rain and flooding will still be the killer.

Just for fun, Google the path of Katrina and then come talk to me. She went from nothing to monster within a day in the gulf.

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