We have seen some individual properties move up and some move later as much as 10-15 days if I recall correctly but widespread we have not seen anything like that.

On one place in particular where this happened we have a very good relationship with the club and harvest/observation data. The couple years that it shifted late were proceeded by a couple of years that they were very successful a harvesting their mature bucks down through the 3.5 year old age class. We theorized that this impacted the efficiency at which the does were bred the following seasons.

Obviously there was immigration/emigration of bucks into the population but most of the ones identified on camera were harvested the year they showed up.

Not a biologist, but I believe the theory on mature bucks is correct.

So, if the young bucks don't get the job done shouldn't the shift be 28 days instead of 15 due to the doe going out of estrous??

The thing you have to remember is that it is an average. So we have early breeders too. I imagine if it went on very long that it could end up being a permanent shift due to two things. One, inefficient breeding and two a more unbalanced ratio.

It did not last more than a couple of years though. They have laid of the 3.5 year olds. We will see what happens this year. It will be interesting.

You typed slow enough that even I got that. Forgot AVERAGE. Enough were bred in the 2nd estrous to shift the AVERAGE. Gotcha!! For me I would really be interested in all the dates from the test in the MAIN cycle...or the best guess. Realize their will be some earlier and later, but I would find the time and date spread interesting. In other words, removing the outliers.

I’d have to guess it looks something like this 2dogs. Again though, it will depend on the buck to doe ratio and how efficiently the does are bred in the first cycle. If you had a better ratio then you may have a much higher hump in the front and a much smaller one in the back. In which case, the avg would move to the left or earlier.

That's what one could look like for the entire rut, both primary and secondary. I'd like to see some plotted for primary only and primary and secondary. I'd like to see how many areas peak primary breeding dates fall before Feb.1. That map would be useful.

[That's what one could look like for the entire rut, both primary and secondary. I'd like to see some plotted for primary only and primary and secondary. I'd like to see how many areas peak primary breeding dates fall before Feb.1. That map would be useful. We could start with central Jackson Co.

So how do you guys propose we determine what's a second cycle deer? I have my own opinions, based on the timing "most" does enter estrous, but it's not a fail proof method, as it really isn't scientific. It's just playing the game of probabilities. There are not well defined cycles in some populations. Populations in some areas seem to have influences from several stocking sources, and there are huge differences in populations in very close proximity to each other. We really have no choice but to take all samples into account. In Cullman County, in an area with a very low population there were deer collected in the past with breeding dates from September to March. I wouldn't think it is the result of a severely skewed sex ratio there. I really have no explanation.

Well, that is what I was trying to say. The average conception date may be of use to biologist and their decision making for not so much for the hunter. Even the average date of the primary rut would be of little use to the hunters that I can see except for it's very interesting and some may adjust their vacation times according to those dates. For me, it's really more to see if I'm right or wrong about what I think is going on.

at first i was with you guys about the average dat kinda throwing off when you would take vacation days to hunt. But after some ponder it got me to wondering if the average dat might actually be better. My thinking, which could be wrong. First breeding kicks in, there locked down breeding. between then and next breeding cycle, bucks start running around looking for other does, maybe more movement, if the weather is cooler. What say yall?

I know the more you hunt the better your chances are, but if you was only going to take a week off to hunt, were on the graph do you think the most buck movement would be

I would love to see/have the raw data, but I'm weird that way

I can see why an average is used, but it is possible that no does were actually bred on or around that average date. To me, I want to know in which week (5 or 7 day period, or even a two week period) were the most does bred in my area. That seems to me like that would be the peak of the rut. If that was calculated by year, then you could easily see changes from year to year and also take an overall average to see when the peak of the rut normally occurs for an area. Then you could also determine secondary peaks.

I know the more you hunt the better your chances are, but if you was only going to take a week off to hunt, were on the graph do you think the most buck movement would be