You don't have to wonder how they got their numbers; the report is there for all to read:
http://www.outdooralabama.com/research-m...ey%20Report.pdf I would expect that the harvest numbers are reasonably accurate. The methods they used are no different from those used in just about any kind of scientific survey you can imagine - from political races to soil sampling. They are saying that the Percent Standard Error is 8.4%, so they don't claim that the figures are exact.
The harvest trend is down for the past 3 years, and I would think that is beyond dispute. However, it is normal for the harvest to fluctuate from year to year. Since 1984, the number of birds killed per hunter has varied from a low of .7 to a high of 1.1. We were at the lower end of the range in 2009, but it may have bounced back this past season.
The harvest depends on a lot more factors than just total population. Weather can have a huge effect on the number killed. I also notice that the harvest included only 10% jakes - other years have been much higher. That could be due to the fact that there weren't as many jakes to shoot, or it could be that hunters are choosing to kill only mature birds. Personally, I don't remember seeing many jakes in 09, but saw a bunch this past season. I also remember it being very tough to kill a turkey in 2009, even though I was around them and heard them every morning.
I got no idea if the harvest was up or down in 2010. I couldn't tell any difference in overall numbers on the places in hunt in Coosa and Perry counties, but it is a big state and few of us can have a good idea of what's happening all over it. But I did get a hunter survey for this past season, and so did deadeye, so we may skew the results upward.
We've still got plenty of turkeys.