Discussion

There is one concept that I have heard over and over at every feral hog workshop I attend. And it is, "You have to kill 70-80% of the population on your property just to maintain the current population."

For the life of me I just can't make that work. I don't see how it is possible.

Here are some reported estimates.
Hog population in Alabama is estimated at 300,000
The Hunter Survey reports that the following have been killed over the past 5 years.

2011-2012 81,500 killed
2012-2013 151,500 killed
2013-2014 122,699 killed
2014-2015 109,794 killed
2015-2016 208,200 killed


I do not think we have killed anywhere near 70-80% of the population in any year. If that is true, how has the population not exploded over 300,000?

I have no doubt there are a lot of pigs killed in Bama each year. I would estimate that the actual percentage killed was closer to 25% than 80%.

I found an article written back in 2014 that estimated the population around 300,000.

I heard the same estimate last year at the pig conference.

If we are only killing 40% as indicated by the 2014 hunter survey, the population should have exploded to near 1 million by now. Yet, I don't think it has or is. Something else is at play here and I can't figure it out.

Opinions are welcome!

damn Hogs just won't stand still so we can count em all!

How do they determine how many are killed annually? I've never gotten the first survey or call asking me how many I have killed. I've killed a pile of them and shot or shot at every hog that I have seen when i've had a rifle in my hand for the past 5 or 6 years. I'm really selective on the deer I kill but every hog gets a bullet. i'm betting there are a lot of guys like me killing the crap out of them.

EH do you think there are properties that they just won't use?

I do somewhat believe in that theory....also that they reach a cetain population on any given piece and then one says to the other that htere has to be greener grass on the other side of that blacktop road (another theory some adhere to). I

If a piece has top cover, food and water it is almost bound sooner or later to fall to the heathens.

EH that's some good info and some good questions. This is exactly why I started the Hog Eradication thread. I killed so many last year I got sick of seeing and killing them. This season is shaping up to be worse than last year. The property owner will not let me bring anyone onto the property to help with this and was just informed she doesn't want them trapped, she just wants me to shoot them. The only good I've found in them is that its an easy way to feed people including the land owner. I know when the acorns start dropping I'll have so many hogs the deer will literally leave not to mention I have the only hardwood around for miles. With the numbers you have posted I'd have to say the surveys are way off on the population. Ive never reported any hog kill and know many others that haven't . So how could they even be close to accurate with so many unreported kills?

I don't believe as many piglets make it to maturity as expected. Mostly likely due to coyote predation on the young.

I agree with this. We have killed several with no tails and one with no ears. Something is doing this wheather it be predators or other pigs or people.

Here is an example of what I am talking about.

Let's say back in 1988 there were 100,000 hogs in Alabama.
Let's also say that they increased their numbers by just 10% per year. That is assuming a 60-70% death rate by all means.
Then we would have almost 1.6 million hogs in Alabama today.

Even if we cut that starting number down to 50,000 back in 1988, we would still have almost 800,000 now.

And that is assuming we have been killing 60-70% annually EVERY year since then. I seriously doubt we have gotten anywhere near that.

http://swine.vet.uga.edu/nfsms/information/

The link above has distribution maps going back to 1982.

Let's look at some different kill rates over that period and see what the numbers would be with a starting population of 50,000 in 1988 and what the population would be in 2017.

Assuming a population growth rate of X%.

10% - 793,155
15% - 2,878,773
20% - 9,890,680

Okay if you say there was no where near 50,000 pigs in 1988. Let's look at a starting population of 10,000 pigs with the same rates.

10% - 158,631
15% - 575,755
20% - 1,978,136

I just can't the numbers to work. They can't average 8-14 piglets per litter. They can't average half of that. There is no way we are killing 70-80% state wide.

So, something has to give here. Don't get me wrong, pigs are much more prolific that we want them to be.

But, if the litter size estimates are correct and the requirement to kill 70-80% of the population annually is correct. The current population would be off the chart and we would wake up each morning with feral pigs living in each of our yards.

I believe the people making the data are not in the field and they are going on standard numbers alone but there are many variables that effect the number of pigs such as: trapping, hunting, night hunting, predators, canibalism, vast areas of private land that nobody can hunt and the numbers explode.

The largest sounder I've seen was in Mulberry fork wma and there were 3 adult sows and about 20 piglets. This was last year during turkey season

I would have to qualify that statement a little. There is no property in Alabama that is not being hunted. It may be hunted illegally but it is being hunted! LOL

Please let me clarify.

I am not by any means saying pigs are not a problem. I just don't think they are the impossible to handle plague some make them out to be.

You can control the population your property. It just takes work. Some are easier than others.

Trapping is by far the first best option MOST of the time. Where you can see (row crop land), you can add thermal work and really make a difference.

I think that the 300,000 number the state is throwing out there is way wrong to start with. If the state of Alabama really has 1.5 million whitetails like the state claims, I'd think there would have to be somewhere around 450,000 and 600,000 hogs.

There are many properties in the south/central part of the state that hold more hogs than deer on a per acre basis. Granted a hogs home range, in my opinion, is larger than a deer's which leads to multiple properties seeing the same sounders at different times of the year but still.....

I think the south/central has more hogs than the northern part of the state but much of the northern part of the state has a much lower deer density when compared to the south/central. When you account for the density differences, in determining the total population for both deer and hogs, if the state is correct and we do have 1.5 million whitetail deer, we've got way more than 300K hogs.

I'm enjoying reading everyones comments. I have often thought the numbers didn't line up myself but didn't really want to get blasted on here for bringing it up.

I have tried to estimate hog populations in Alabama using several different methods. I consistently come up with 700,000 to 800,000. If I were to be in the ball park that even makes the 70-80% theory more outrageous.

Pick any bird or animal. Why doesn't the crow population or the mockingbird population or the nutria population or the possum population just explode? Why do the numbers in any given area stay close to the same year to year? Nature is the answer.

When you are talking about native animal species, I agree. They have become one with nature so to speak. They have reached a predator/prey balance. Introduced species are another matter all together.

Define introduced. Tell me when the first hogs started roaming the swamps of Florida and Georgia and Alabama. What kept them from causing devastation and destruction and total overpopulation for the last ???? years? They have been around since way before the professional trappers appeared, and I can't tell that the population has fluctuated much either way in my lifetime.

Listening to one of the MeatEater podcasts they were discussing the Grizzly Bear population estimates. They basically said that the population was estimated using a formula that was once thought to be accurate. That formula used an assumption that a female with cubs needed "x" number of square miles to be able to raise her cubs. With more current studies, they believe that number to be low because they're seeing bears live closer together than previously thought, maybe due to better habitat. In the course of the discussion, the biologist states that the population is "x" number of bears... "but likely more". Basically, they know their methodology is flawed but it seems that no one has come up with a better way to estimate so they continue to use the old formula. The biologist stated that if you put a gun to his head and made him give you a bear population, he would stick with the "x" number of bears because that estimate was derived scientifically. If he gave you a number that was greater than "x" he doesn't have any science to support that guess, even though he thinks the population is greater than "x".

This is how I understood the whole discussion. I can get it. Studying wildlife numbers is not an exact science. If you're going to print a population estimate, it needs to be derived in a manner that is widely accepted by the scientific community. If you don't have a better way of estimating it, you better stick to the tried and true method, or just stick to the old number. That's my guess.

"Hog hysteria" is simply "fake news".

IMO, the threat has always been exaggerated for whatever reason.

Hunters, trappers, coyotes, and Mother Nature will keep the population in check.

Extermination not required...

Look at these maps.

http://swine.vet.uga.edu/nfsms/information/

I think it proves the obvious. Wild hogs existed 500-600 years in the far south without expanding their range much. Then some people decided to help them travel. In 1982, there were wild hogs in about 7 states and they had been given a lift to half of those. Fast forward to 2016, there are hogs in over 30 states. I seriously doubt the hogs grew pony tails and decided to just hit the road. LOL

JWAL,

You do bring up an interesting point. I wonder if anyone has done any research on how long it takes for an invasive species to adjust/balance to its new environment and how long it takes the new environment to adjust/balance to the invasive species. Assuming it will if given enough time.

All of my uncles that lived around Jay Fla in the 50s hunted hogs with catch dogs in the Escambia river swamp.

The distribution maps are nice EH but you really didn't address the question. I will ask it again. What kept the hog population from exploding for the 600 years( your number) that they were in existence in the areas they inhabited? According to current propaganda, there should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 400 billion hogs there now at their uncontrollable reproduction rate.

One point that is being overlooked is the fact that free-ranging (feral) hogs existed in many/most States. However, they were considered livestock and were 'owned' by the people with registered marks in those areas or were simply 'known' by the locals who ran woods hogs & cattle.
It was not until the Stock Laws started taking effect in the early 40's that people began having to fence them in. Then, in the mid to late 70's, deer hunting began really gaining popularity and have an economic impact. Along that time, the wildlife agencies began to take notice of the feral hogs and started to work towards making them fall under their domain. Here in AL, it was due to large landowners not having the power to prosecute poachers who were hunting their properties as they would claim to be gathering livestock. So, the feral hog became a Game Animal.
Then, the land-leasing craze of the 90's hit and property that had been long open to Public Use got gated and access more tightly controlled. As things progressed and the farming for wildlife got going, along with the implementation of clearcutting large areas of timber, the hogs really took hold with lots of places to hide and plenty of high quality groceries.
Nowadays, the trend is for wealthy individulals, families and/or investment groups to purchase large blocks of land and mange it for Recreational Use; I.e. Hunting. These properties are well-managed and have tightly restricted access. The hogs love em!!

So, that is my historically based opinion on the 'expansion' of feral hogs.
I am quite certain that many were relocated for recreational hunting by many varied user groups. But, land use has played a huge role as well. And, do not forget, their 'name' changed from livestock to Game Animals, too.

On populations, they fluctuate yearly and I know of many properties that used to hold large numbers of hogs that now have very few, or none. And, I also know of properties that never had any hogs that are now infested. The reasons are too numerous to list! But, they do stabilize given time. I would say that the densities are much lower than most estimate. This is due to the large areas hogs inhabit and their habit of waking roads leaving lots of sign. This makes people think there are far more than there really are.

So, that and about $1.50 will buy you a Coca Cola to drink while you mull it over!:)

You and I are saying the same thing. I don't think they explode on their own like many indicate.