Mortality rate of bucks by age class?

Have any of you seen and studies done in the southeast on this subject. I have read some done in Texas that say 10%-20% a year. What is your own opinion on what percentage of bucks die each from something other than a hunter. Let's say you had a piece of unhunted property that had 100 1 year old bucks on it how many of them would make it to 2 Then how many of those would make it to 3 and then to 4 and then to 5. At 15% you would end up with only about 1/2 of those 100 bucks making it to 5 years old. Here is the conclusion to a study done in TX.

WHAT DOES THIS ENTIRE RESEARCH MEAN?
First, managing for mature, trophy bucks is not very efficient because many bucks will die each year of natural causes. To illustrate this, let’s start with a population of 100 six-month-old buck fawns. Our buck mortality research indicates that an average of 46 percent of buck fawns will die of natural causes from December-May, reducing the buck population to only 54 1.5-year-old bucks. Our data shows that an average of 37 percent of 1.5-year-old bucks will die of natural causes so, after the second year the buck population has decreased to only 34 2.5-year-old bucks. Our research indicates that an average of 7 percent of 2.5-year-old bucks die each year, knocking the population down to 32 3.5-year-old bucks. We found that 20 percent of 3.5-year-old bucks die of natural causes, so we are now left with 26 4.5-year-old bucks. Natural mortality in 4.5-year-old bucks is the lowest of any age class (1 percent) and all 26 bucks survive to 5.5-years-old. Of the 26 5.5-year-old bucks, 6 percent will die before reaching 6.5-years-old. Therefore, only 24 bucks, out of the original 100-buck fawns, will survive to 6.5-years-old, the age at which antler growth peaks. This shockingly high rate of natural mortality means that without any hunting at all, 76 of 100 buck fawns will die before 6.5-years-old! Ranch owners, managers, and hunters interested in managing for mature, trophy bucks need to realize that in south Texas the majority of bucks will die of natural causes before reaching maturity.

This is why you don't see many 4-5 year old bucks during the rut, most of them are already dead.

I can believe that. I have seen more road kill in the last week than I saw all deer season.

I found some data a while back but I'm not sure of the source. It included natural mortality and hunting. The natural mortality increased with age in the study I read.

If you throw hunting into the mix, the number is much lower. I tried to come up with a way to predict how many age class bucks there would be on a property if you protected a certain age class. My mortality and hunting numbers stopped with 5 1/2 year olds. Here's what I came up with.

I started with a total population of around 90 bucks that were 1.5 to 6.5. If you protect only fawns, you would have 4 bucks that are 5 1/2 and 2 that are 6 1/2.

If you protect 1.5 year old bucks, you end up with 5 bucks 5 1/2, and 3 that are 6 1/2.

If you protect 2.5 year old bucks, you end up with 7 bucks 5 1/2 and 4 that are 6 1/2

If you protect 3.5 year old bucks, you end up with 12 bucks 5 1/2 and 6 that are 6 1/2

As you protect older age classes, then you end with up with a higher number of total bucks. If you started with 90 bucks, that would grow to 139 bucks after 6 years if you protected 3 1/2 year olds and younger. I had no way to account for dispersal. I also am guessing that higher populations also increase natural mortality rates.

This was very unscientific but I was just trying to understand, based on the study I read, how protecting up to a certain age class would change the overall age structure of the herd. The bottom line is that not many bucks make it to 5 1/2 and of those, only about half make it to 6 1/2.

That sounds about right. When you start putting actuall numbers to this it makes you realize why you see so few 4+ year old deer compared to 1-2 year olds. The answer to what happen to all those young deer I let go last year is they are dead. That is one reason it is very hard for a club to go from a 6 or 8 point or better club to a only kill 4 or 5 year old bucks. The pool of bucks you are able to kill shrinks dramatically, and most people can't deal with only killing a buck every 2-3 years. But if you have a piece of property big enough to hold 90 bucks but have only 10 or so mature deer out of those 90 it don't give you very many opportunities to kill a buck.

That's exactly right!!! Especially when you are paying 2000+ for a club, it's difficult not to shoot something.

I was listening to the Hunting Public podcast, and they did a property evaluation of a guy with a 1,300 acre club. They have like 17 members and several retired guys that wear the place out. Wondering why they don't see kill mature bucks. That's a real head scratcher...

My thoughts are most of the young bucks in our State get shot before they reach maturity. There are not many, if hardly any, untouched and non-hunted areas of this State where a deer can survive gun season unmolested. These areas will be more and more urban in the future just like over in Georgia. They are killing all kinds of huge deer in the suburbs of Atlanta. Why? Minimal hunting pressure. Nothing has changed with the genetics they have been there all along. Same with Alabama IMO.

#2 Killing a bunch of deer, in particular does - doesn't grow antlers. Having the proper age class in your deer herd is what grows antlers. It is a numbers game. The more deer you have, the more bucks you will have (if you can keep your finger off the trigger). The next step... the more bucks you have - the more likely a few will reach maturity.

We have great deer hunting in this State due to overall numbers but 5 year old deer are poorly represented in the skinning shed. We just don't have a lot of mature deer in this State. That's the reason we are NOT known for big bucks statewide. They don't exist. Got kilt when they were 2.5.

Actually, its very easy not to shoot a deer.

Perfect example. That mentality right there ^^^, along with the 90+ days of gun hunting, coupled with all the "meat hunting" that goes on in Alabama is why we do not have very many older age class bucks in our herd. It's really easy not to shoot something. Sometimes I may go 3 years without killing a buck. Not because I didnt have 15-20 chances each year to kill a good rack buck but because I was specifically hunting older mature deer and usually one or two specific bucks.

OK, you pay my club dues and I will find it MUCH easier not to kill anything less that 4 1/2.

That's the mentality that is the main reason for the lack of fully mature bucks

In a season I may see up to 25 bucks that I think are 3 1/2. Of course I see a LOT more of 2 1/2 and younger. I don't see that many 4 1/2+ deer. I don't know if their patterns change, they become totally nocturnal or what, but often I don't even get them on camera. They seem to often disappear after 3 1/2. We (me and a few others) try to shoot mature deer but a lot of even 2 1/2 year old deer will meet our standards. While I pass up deer that I think are 3 1/2 or younger, it is tough when the next guy doesn't.

I guess we try to have a balance between seldom shooting anything and killing a few. Every year, we have a couple really good deer killed and everything else, in my opinion, is marginal. We also have some older class bucks that are killed that aren't that impressive, as far as the rack is concerned.

The older I get the more I am concerned about enjoying the hunt. If that means killing a buck in the heat of the moment, that is hot on the trail of a doe, then so be it. I also enjoy watching deer and am usually very slow to pull the trigger. Whatever the case it, the simple fact is that not many bucks make it to 5 1/2+ and those that do didn't get there by being careless.

I love hunting for that trophy. Like most of you guys, I've let a ton of "decent" bucks go over the years. Having hunted in Texas, Illinois and Alabama, I have seen some studs. Even lucky enough to kill a couple of really nice deer. But I heard an old man say something, years ago in one of our preseason hunting club meetings. The debate came up about 6 point or better versus 8 point or better, etc. He said he'd vote to let 2.5 year old 6 points walk and would rather kill 18 month old spikes. His point was that the 6 point is only a year or 2 away from potentially being a shooter. The spike is 3 - 4 years away. Makes some sense. Of course, none of us killed spikes or 2.5 year old 6 points. But I can almost see the rationale behind his comments. Not that I agreed or disagreed. Just an old man' way of looking at things.

And that makes no sense at all...

Actually to me it does. If you've just absolutely got to do it and you're going to shoot a non-mature buck, youre better off shooting a spike than that 2-3 yr old 6 or 8 point. That 2-3 yr old buck has already survived cars, neighbors, members, fights, ehd, coyotes, rut stress, etc, for 2-3 years and is well on his way into making it into the older "mature" age classes. You've got 2-3 years invested in him. If you kill a yearling spike, you've got virtually no time or nutrition invested in him and that yearling buck is easily replaced with the next year's crop of fawns whereas it will take you 2-3 years to have that same 6 or 8 point you shot, replaced with another similar buck of the same age if you are trying to grow and manage for older age class bucks. Wise old guy in my opinion.

Especially if you kill him before dispersal. Most young buck will leave their birth home range area, usually in the fall/early winter and if you can kill him before he leaves, you are not decreasing your buck population but someone else's.

That's a good reason, and was the reason for my comment above. The 1-1/2 YO bucks wandering your 1500 acres may not be "your" deer. They have been pushed out by mama but don't have a home yet. They may set up home 5 miles away next season. But if everyone starts shooting spikes, there are none left to wander onto your property to become 2-1/2 YO 6 points.

Just a thought...

We recently had a somewhat heated debate at the military base I hunt on about the "4 on one side" rule. That's been the requirement for the past few years (with NO other stipulations), and it has devolved into a full-on slaughter of every young buck with "4 on one side". I do not know the exact total harvest, but I'm thinking there were about 100 bucks killed this season (+,- 10), and of that total number I would bet my entire year's income there weren't 5 bucks over 110". This is a place that for the past 15 years has given up MULTIPLE 140" bucks every year (two over 160" the last 3 seasons). Just a general assumption, normally we'd kill maybe 25 to 40 bucks in the 120+" class, I don't think we had a single deer that big this time (maybe one). There is zero difference otherwise, no seasonal or habitat changes, nothing. Believe this or not, I didn't SEE nor even HEAR one single coyote this whole season.

Even though we sell roughly 250-300 licenses each year, in reality there's only about 75-100 hunters out there for most of the season (at any one time anyway). If there is a difference, it's that there's a substantial influx of new guys that started LAST YEAR (being out there as long as I have you become something of a brotherhood). You know everybody, we have an active Facebook page, etc. I will say we had a constant, and I mean constant, clash on the Facebook page about "Guys, cool it with killing all the piss-willy bucks!!!", then "By Golly, it's legal, so I'll kill whatever the @#$@# I want to!!!" If you think there's no repercussions to you "killing whatever you want to", you're dead wrong. Period. Not one single person I've talked to even reports to "secretly" seeing a "big" buck this year. They are NOT THERE.

By the way, this place has long been under Auburn University DMP. They do multiple deer studies each year, nighttime infrared trips, all sorts of stuff. The top 3 management tools are: trigger control, trigger control, trigger control. Nothing else matters. "4 points on one side" just assures your best young bucks get killed early.

Sounds like your buddies are "high grading" the herd, just like you can do with a timber tract. Cut all the white oaks and black walnuts and all you've got left is hackberries and hickories.

Let me gues....you're in either year 4 or 5 of this "4 on one side" nonsense. Fact of the matter is you are not seeing them because they are not there anymore. The best bucks in every upcoming year class are being killed/high graded out as 1-3 yr olds. If you repeatedly kill all of your young 8 points in successive years you've wiped out the deer that should be your larger antlered, older age class bucks 3-5 yrs down the road. It is a very easy and quick way to screw up a deer herd both genetically and age structure wise unless significant trigger restraint is exercised which it sounds like is not happening. Sounds like AU is well on their way to screwing up a good thing. Is Gus Malzahn also running AU's DMAP program???????

Auburn isn't screwing it up, it's the dumbarses who can't keep their booger hooker off the trigger. Deer management is more about hunter management than anything else.

High grading just like they learned in Mississippi - is a disaster for the buck population.

Only way to improve the buck population is age restriction.

I never go by points.
When I here people talk about points alone it unnerves me.

I agree but what else can u do for the mass of uneducated hunters that can't tell 2 from 3 or 4 year old

Problem is, most people can count to 4 but they don't know a thing about ageing them on the hoof.

Actually they are. It's dumb as hell to impose a 4 on one side restriction in an open public hunting area, without any other indicators such as spread or body confirmation. Just ask the MS wildlife biologists how that statewide 4 on one side worked out for them while they had it in place. The MS biologists were actually fairly quick to adjust their harvest criteria and recognize their mistake and get it fixed. You're without a doubt 100% correct. If everyone had the herd's health in mind and knew how to properly age deer on the hoof, yes it would probably work. Hunter mgmt is the most important part of deer mgmt and the general hunting public has proven time and time again they they cannot manage themselves. Unfortunately in Alabama, hunter management, in a public environment, is virtually impossible due to the "I've got to kill a rack buck or every doe I see, to prove I'm a good hunter and a real man mentality" that has somehow gotten ingrained into the majority of the licensed hunters and non-licensed (big number there too) hunters in this state.

It makes perfect sense. Really the most endangered deer in the woods is a pretty 2 year old. They ain’t real smart yet but there are a bunch of hunters that will let spikes or little scraggly young bucks of the same age class walk but they will turn that pretty 2 year old buck with good genes inside out quick as they see him. It is exactly the same as high grading timber like previously stated

Yep and that's the problem with having a 8 points or better rule. We used to go by 8 points and outside the ears rule until we realized that was high grading and resulted in killing genetically superior young deer. Went to using body confirmation trying to only kill fully mature bucks. If you keep your finger off the trigger long enough to really take a close look at the body structure before shooting you can get pretty good at it. You might occasionally let one get away while judging one, but I'd rather do that than kill a buck with great potential that's too young. I realize that not everyone takes that approach, but I know what works for us.

The hard part about letting bucks walk is the realization that you won't see them next year. Between neighbors,predators, poachers and disease, most will never reach maturity.

Yes that's true, I can't put a number on the good bucks that I've let walk thinking "man that one should be a dandy next year" only to never see them again. Still, I'm going to continue to do it that way. I've killed some very nice bucks and if I kill one now, it's going on the wall. Only exception to that is if its a buck that is obviously past his prime. I occasionally second guess myself on a buck I let go, but I just see it as saving myself $4-500 on taxidermy

I agree with whoever said the most important part of "trophy management", is that trigger finger. Along with that, is a club full of like minded people. If you want to shoot 2.5 year old deer, that's great. Find a club full of like minded people and put em down. If you want to shoot 4.5 - 5.5 year old deer only, again, find a club with those like minded people. I guarantee those clubs that shoot younger deer tend to have a lot more fun. Lol. It get's awfully discouraging sit after sit after sit and not see a "shooter". But when he finally shows up and gives that opportunity, it's all worth it to me. Different strokes for different folks. At the end of the day, it is a sport. Whatever your taste, enjoy it. My taste is to let the young ones go...

One thing that nobody has mentioned is that there is something that clicks in a buck's brain at either 4 or 5 years of age. You can have a great 3 yr old that has "imprinted" on your property and uses it as his home range that you see and pass on a regular basis when he's 3. You'll see him substantially less as a 4 yr old and then "boom". He hits his 5th birthday and he becomes a totally different deer. You just will not see him in daylight like you did when he was a 3 yr old and you certainly won't see him in daylight in the same places you saw him as a 3 yr old. I'm a firm believer that something clicks in their brain and they become mostly, if not virtually completely nocturnal, even if they are in a low pressure situation. That's why mature deer are so hard to hunt and kill as compared to younger deer. Any buck 5 yrs old and older is a worthy adversary and killing him is accomplishment as a hunter.

I agree with Hix. If you want to bust 1 and 2 year olds, get in a club with like minded individuals and have fun. Same with those wanting to pass all young bucks and hunt only mature deer. To each his own but everyone needs to understand the implications of pulling or not pulling that trigger. The trophy guys wont get to pull it very much and need to just be content with seeing and passing good quality bucks to eventually grow and kill the one they are looking for. The "buck killers" will get to pull it often but will very seldom, if ever, have the opportunity to shoot a true high scoring fully mature buck.

You don't see those good 2.5 - 3.5 year old bucks the next season because a large % of them just die before next year gets here.

I was glad to see the thread come up and wondered if it would lead to a good discussion.

I used to read on age class stats, high grading, replacement rates etc.... We came up with criteria for killing that seemed fair for most everyone.

We decided on age class of 3.5 and the buck had to meet 1 of 3 criteria

3.5 years old
or a
20 inch main beam
or a
15 inch spread

After gathering data we determined the majority of bucks that had 20 inch main beams or 15 inch spreads generally were 3.5 or older on our lease.
Occasionally some younger bucks would have equal to or better than what our average was. For the most part some of the better hunters would let those walk realizing their potential.

Getting a number of deer hunters to agree s harder than herding cats.

I heard some guys from Westervelt stating that a club with more than 10 hunters was almost impossible to get them all to agree.

Our club has a meet 2 of 4:

4 in bases
15 in spread
18 in main beams
7 in tine.

It's not too restrictive. The only problem I have with age requirements is that there is no way to age a deer with any amount of certainty.

No system is perfect. Some of our mature deer never have spreads greater than 12" while some of our younger deer may have 18 in spreads. We've killed mature deer with short tines and young deer with long tines. Usually our older deer have great mass but I remember one older deer that had no brows (6 pt) and his antlers were slick (not knobby at all) and were not even 4". He weighed 170 lbs in late January, not an ounce of fat, and his teeth were worn down flat.

I've come to the conclusion that the term "trophy hunter" is being used to mean something it doesn't actually mean. I do not know, have never known, a "trophy hunter". I do not know anybody who only hunts the one single very largest deer on their property, or has some unrealistic expectation of only shooting "5yr old" bucks that "score" a certain minimum.

I am not a "trophy" hunter, but I'm a "rack" hunter. That term makes more sense to me and is realistic in Alabama. I don't have specifics, and even if I did it would vary based on where I am. I often say "I don't kill something I wouldn't mount". Some people talk about "don't kill anythin you aren't going to eat" (as in you are wasteful and irresponsible if you killed a deer and just threw away the carcass or otherwise made no use of the meat) Well I feel the EXACT same way about a buck's antlers. If I'm just going to discard (not treasure) the rack, then why the @#$#@ did I shoot him????? Am I that immature and irresponsible?? I just couldn't control my foolish excitement, so I shot a 12" pencil-horned 6pt and simply cut his skull plate off and threw it in the shed. That's just like shooting a doe and dumping her in the ditch as you leave the club.

On Choccolocco WMA I'd probably kill a 14" wide 8pt. However I wouldn't kill that deer on Barbour WMA. On the military base I hunt it would have to be a legit "mounter" (my arbitrary rules are 16" with better than average mass and tine length). But then again there are some hunts where it happens so fast and exciting that I kill a 15-1/4" unimpressive 8pt. But it's basically a grown deer with a rack that would satisfy 98% of Alabama hunters. I hope that makes sense.

some hunters can't age a deer within four years, but a lot of hunters can very accurately age deer on the hoof. One trick is to take LOTS of pics and study the pics BEFORE hunting to allow you to more quickly age/ID a buck when you first see it.

:Does to me.

I know an old guy that won't step into woods till he has an old big rack buck on cam...hes killed sum big uns..he didn't step in woods last year may not have this year other than checking cams every once in while

I agree, Mr. Hix friend makes plenty of sense. That pretty 2 Yo 6 to 8 pt has proven he has potential. If you are in a none doe shooting club and want some meat 1 Yo spike makes perfect sense. The younger the age class the quicker they are replaced. Many clubs get bent out of shape when someone shoots a button head. Folks that ain't a big deal , about 50% of the fawns born next summer will be bucks. Those same folks that wanta string a guy up for a button head will shoot every nice 6-8 point 2-3 Yo that walks by. Then wonder why the can't kill a big un!


That doesn't mean blast all spikes , but I'd rather have a spike or two shot off my place than a nice 2 or 3 yo.


Managing wildlife is easy, managing hunters is not.

Your last paragraph is why spread should never be a factor in shoot / don't shoot and measuring antlers IMO. Spread ain't nothing but air, air is everywhere. BTW, I could see how your club's system saves a lot of bucks , by the time you figure all that out , he's gone.

Never going to come to an agreement on antler size. People can't judge racks anyway so rules are useless. Another big factor - People act like there are no cull bucks to shoot. If you want to blast something kill one with a messed up rack I have them on every property I hunt. Shoot a doe if you want meat.

Some people just want to kill something. Waiting on a cull buck to come past can be like waiting on a mature deer. They don't want to wait that long. Bam! Down goes the 2.5 yo 8 pointer.

The only way I see common ground is to lower the limit. If a guy wants to shoot a 2 yo deer doesn't bother me as long as he only kills 1-2. Not 4 then 8 does on top of that! What do you even do with the meat from 12 deer? You'd have to eat it every meal.

Plenty of people kill that many don't think they don't. That's about 15 deer you won't have the next season as well.

Cull is an excuse to shoot, most "culls" are not culls at all. And those that are , most hunters can't identify anyway.

True as well in a lot of cases.

If someone can't tell the difference between a 2 yr old buck and a 4 or 5 yr old buck within 30 seconds I don't want to be on the same property with them. They might think I'm a deer and shoot me

mman what county are you in with those criteria? just curious...very reasonable...they would work for us here in Baldwin county.

In the end this is still hunting and supposed to be fun and if you kill a trophy and/or fill the freezer to your liking then it's a plus!!

Amen. I typed this loooong reply earlier sorta about that, but just deleted it without replying. That's part of the reason I talked about being a "rack" hunter, not a "trophy" hunter. I've had a charmed hunting life, seen and killed more deer than many people will in a lifetime, killed basically everything you could want. And I still get geeked up to see a 3.5yr old 15" buck slipping across a cutover!!!! At 250 yards in a belt-high cutover of briars, it's happening fast, you aren't gonna get to watch him for enough time to play that crazy game. BANG!!!! To the average hunter (98.643% of Alabama guys), there is an instantly noticeable difference in a 2yr old 12" six point and a 3yr old 15" wide 8pt, but there is not such an easy difference in that same 3yr old 15" eight pt and the 5+yr old 17" eight pt (IF THOSE DEER ARE BY THEMSELVES). Granted, if 5 racked deer come out on a food plot and you've got slow time to look at them, it's quickly noticeable which one I want to shoot. But seldom if ever have I watched that 3yr old 15" deer slipping through the cutover at a distance and decided NOT to shoot him!!! I probably shouldn't, but crap that's fun!!!

But again, it's property specific. I wouldn't go to Iowa and shoot that deer, he wouldn't even raise my eyebrow.

I'll bet the majority of hunters can't tell the difference, just follow the "how old is this buck" threads on here.

Year specific isn't easy but a 2 1/2 and a 5 1/2 yr old buck don't even look like the same species. The 2 yr old is lean with a tucked up streamlined belly and a healthy 5 yr old is built like a young bull. Blocky, rectangular body, huge neck, deep chest and rear end. Some even have a neck hump. If you've ever seen one, first thought is "damn, what a huge body I bet hecweighs 250 lbs"

ron, thats because you LOOK at em, most don't and never learn the difference

Our club goes by age - buck has to be 4 y.o. minimum and if it is an 8 point it has to be at least 125 and if
it is a 10 point at least mid 130s.

At age 5 or older there are no antler restrictions.

It works really good for us.

Tara Wildlife in Mississippi has similar rule:

Buck Harvest Criteria
At least 3 of the following criteria must be met:
Weight – 185lbs
Main beam length – 20″
Antler base – 4″
Inside spread – 16″
Good tine length

Unfortunately, you're right, but in the club I run you'd better learn to or incur my wrath plus a financial penalty and put yourself in a situation where you might be looking for a new place to hunt. It's all about education. Ill give an example. We have 6 members on 800 acres. Nobody is a meat hunter and were all on the same page. One member, who is only a member so his son has a good place to hunt. The son, who has hunted with us since he was around 12, he is now a senior in college and his hunting maturity is well beyond his years. He killed his first buck this year and he has passed on bucks each year that a lot of adults would have killed but wanted to kill something he'd be proud of and that would go on his wall.
I saw the buck earlier in the season and told him about it. He killed it about 10 days later and it was a good 4 1/2 yr old 7 point. He was thrilled and I was proud of him for holding out for a mature buck. To each his own

as you know it really isn't that hard to learn. My grandson has hunted with me since he was in diapers, and he pays attention to EVERYTHING I say. When he was maybe 7-8 we were sitting in the woods when a buck walked by below us. Nice looking buck. Dylan says he's a nice two year old eight...and he was exactly right.

How many 4 year olds do yall normally kill that meets those requirements, on how much land.

Getting back to the ordinal post about natural morality. Well I have 750ac high fence with native deer along with a few bred does and two bucks we've put in over the past couple years. For the most part the Texas stats are right except for the 1% on four year olds, it's way way more. If I had to make a guess, less than 20% make it to 5 years old. Few years ago, had around twenty migrants come out after tree planting season to walk the land looking for sheds, skulls and dead deer. Took about six hours for them to do it along with three of us retrieving stuff when they yelled for back up. Found a lot of deer that disappeared over the years.

I'd guess 1% is pretty low, plenty of loss from rutting and fighting.

That sure don't leave many targets if you are only hunting 5 year old and older bucks. Kind of disheartening actually. I knew mortality was high for bucks but had no ideal it was as high as it is before I started reading some of these studies. If you were hunting 640 acres 1 square mile and the area had 40 deer per square mile and a doe/buck ratio of 2/1 this would be a above average area in AL. You would have 26 does if said does raised an average of 1.25 fawns which would be above average probably you would have 16 buck fawns if 20% made it to 5 years old that would leave 3 bucks. This would be on above average to excellent area of the state and still only 3 bucks per square mile on average. Most of us are hunting land that would be inferior to property with these numbers. Kind of a sobering thought. And really tells me maybe it ain't that those old bucks are that hard to kill more than it is you can't kill what ain't there.

To the OP, I wonder how that all changes in hunted deer herd?

or does it?

There was a documentary month life of a whitetail buck, Marty Stoufer maybe?

The buck died from breeding stress at age 4.5 or 5.5 if I recall correctly. Just wore himself out. It followed him from the time he was born to his natural death.

Without a doubt in a hunted population those numbers would be less. How much would depend on how many bucks you were killing in the 1.5- 2.5 - 3.5 age classes.

I have really enjoyed this thread, really makes me think about the aging of deer. How accurate am i at being able to determine age on hoof??. Also makes me think even more about what we can do to maximize the fawn mortality rate on our leases.

If ya want to maximize fawn mortality rates you could bring in some live trapped coyotes.That would probably do it.

I somewhat agree with your math and thought process but if you've only got 640 acres, almost all your buck fawns that you are referencing would disperse and imprint on neighboring properties outside of your 640. Whatever older age class bucks you would have, would come from surrounding properties and that number would be totally dependent on what all your neighbors were shooting and killing. This is why Bama does not have a ton of older age class bucks. Small acreages, not much in the way of large cooperative management programs/areas, almost 100 days of rifle season, and 70+% of the general hunting public being happy about killing any rack buck that they see. Makes it kind of hard to grow older age class bucks. if all you have to hunt is 640 acres, with typical Alabama hunt clubs around it, you're absolutely not going to be pulling the trigger much at all, with a 5 yr old shooting requirement or goal, and would be better off managing your hunter's expectations and setting a harvest goal of 3 yr old bucks. Now if your 640 is in the middle of Danny and Mike's 25,000 acre co-op management area or somewhere similar, that's a whole different situation and you could be very successful.

I was just using 640 acres as a standard area size to extrapolate an average. You could use whatever size area you wanted.

I think there are a lot more bucks that die of old age then people realize, and a lot more then what a few studies purport to show.

I agree Wm, once a buck makes it to five+ he becomes almost unkillable by regular hunting means. I suspect way better than 1/2 of those fall to hunters or cars.

EHD hit a friends 750 acre high fence place. We found a bunch of very old bucks dead that no one even knew were there, no sightings or pics. And ran several cameras. Amazing just how hard a seven year old buck can be to see.

I’d be good with the math in that Study. By my math that should leave me 3-4 4+ year old age class bucks a year to hunt on my property. And since we don’t hardly shoot bucks we should have 10 or so bucks 4, 5,6+.....or older. I realistically think I’m at half that on my little square mile of paradise