CWD hasn't decreased any wild deer herds that I've seen. Have I missed something somewhere?
Purely from a statistical standpoint...now that antlerless populations are showing 30% prevalence rates across some (not all) states that have been positive for sometime have put populations at risk. If populations are roughly at CC or slightly below, the rule of thumb is there is roughly a 30% surplus on the landscape from that years recruitment. If you are removing 30% with mortality from CWD (which is 100% fatal) you lost the bulk of not all of the surplus. Most state agencies try to manage so that the 30% surplus is managed (removed) through hunter harvests. The additive mortality rates combined is not sustainable. So...something will eventually have to give in those areas. Some populations reach it quickly, others seem to be very slow. That’s where a lot of the questions lie. Heck, AR has not been positive too terribly long and are already seeing 20+% prevalence rates.
All that said, I don’t believe the sky is falling but it is a major concern. I definitely think we’ll learn more in the next 5 years than we know up to this point. Some things sound as though there is hope but then some others make the situation a little more dire. I’ll be interested to see some things published in the next few years.
Lots of research going on about plant takeup, prion loading requirements for transmission, how it can be transferred (urine, scat, brain matter, nervous tissue, semen), and more info on possible live testing. We’ll see what comes out, hopefully some good news