Aldeer Deer Harvest Estimate

So I’d say that Aldeer represents a pretty good cross section of Alabama hunters. I think if enough people participated then a sample taken from this forum could give us a decent guess at total deer killed across the state. Yes, I know it won’t be exact but it would be interesting to look at.

Let’s do a survey…….If we all compile our stats together for this season then we can come up with an average number of deer killed per aldeer hunter…..which again should be pretty representative for what others are doing as well. Multiply our average times the total number of hunters in the state and we have a reasonable guess at total numbers killed. Let's see how our number compares to GC.......I’ll start.

# of Deer Killed

Bucks - 1
Does - 0

Bucks-2
Does-0
Cole T it's your turn to participate.

Bucks - 2
Does - 2

Bucks - 2
Does - 0

Buck-1
Doe-0

Bucks-1
Does-1

Bucks -1
Does - 0

I will include my father and brother since neither of them are members
Bucks - 1
Does- 0

Bucks- 2
Does- 0

Bucks - 1

Does - 1

2 bucks
5 does

Bucks - 2
Does - 0

Zero

1 Buck 1 Doe for me
1 Doe for my girlfriend

Bucks 0
Does 1
Does 1 (grandson)

1 buck

Bucks = 0
Does = 0

BTW in eight sits I didn’t see a doe. Five years ago on this property I would average ten a hunt.

Me 2 bucks

Son 1 buck

Bucks = 3

Seriously ??!!? SMH.

This is just voluntary…..you don’t have to participate if you don’t want to.

Bucks = 2

Does = 1

Buck=1
Doe=2

Way below my average from previous years.

Haven't killed a deer in 3 years, could've killed a boxcar load, just didn't for whatever that's worth

Myself
2 bucks
1 doe
Family
4 bucks
2 does

Total
6 bucks
3 does

Me: 0

Son: 2 Bucks

We tried to find one last deer to put in the freezer from end of December to Feb 10th. In 16 hunts during that span, we did not have a shot opportunity at a deer.

2 bucks
0 Does

0 bucks
1 doe

Zero

Bucks= 2

Does= 0

1 buck
3 does

Bucks - 2

Does - 3

Buck=1
Doe=1

Bucks-2

Does-0

0

2 bucks, one doe.

My first thought when I opened the thread was that there is no way this can produce any statistically valid info, but then I thought further and realized it will still be better than GC.

And since Fearless Leader has trashed the hunter survey, this survey could be the most accurate harvest data available. You oughta go to the CAB meeting next month and present it to them so they have the best data available to set the season next year.

A big limiting factor is gonna be that nobody has any idea how many hunters we have. The state uses a federal estimate from several years ago to guess at the number of unlicensed hunters, but it's nothing but a guess. I doubt that aldeer posters are really representative of all hunters, but that too is unknowable. And your sample size is gonna be real small, and it isn't random. And with all that against it, it will still be better than GC.

Bucks 1

Does Don't shoot them

Buck - 2
Doe - 1

Son
Buck - 0
Doe - 1

Don’t be too surprised at his response given his screenname.

Wife-1 buck
Me- 1 buck

1 buck
1doe

Me- 2 bucks and 1 doe
Son- 1 buck
Daughter- 1 buck

Hold up now PCP…….Sample sizes don’t necessarily have to be huge to still be accurate. It depends on variance doesn’t it? From what I’m seeing so far…..there’s not a whole lot of variance in our hunters' repsonses…..

2 bucks
1 doe
For me my son and wife.

1 buck
3 doe

1 buck
1 doe

Buck - 2
Doe - 0

2 bucks
0 does

A big fat ZERO

So at this point were running about 1.12 bucks harvested per hunter and 0.61 does......I bet I could sample 10,000 more hunters and we wouldn't be too far off from those same numbers.

Well, the bigger the better on sample size with anything. But the real limiting factor on a survey like this is that it isn't random. Hunters that went only a few times and didn't shoot anything are gonna be less likely to be reading here, and far less likely to respond. And anyone who killed a bunch of deer may not want to say so on a public forum.

But don't think I am in any way trying to be critical; just pointing out that it won't be scientific. I did a survey in the turkey forum several years ago on the effect of chicken litter on turkey population. It was not scientific, but it did show a correlation of chicken litter and a declining turkey population. I guess it was a waste of time; Tyson's and other big poultry companies don't want such things to even be thought about, much less studied.

So good luck with it, and I look forward to the results. I will try to stay off your survey; I remember how hard it is to sort through all the responses.

10,000 more hunters that are members of a hunting forum and willing to reply to a thread like this, ain’t exactly your average hunter.

1 buck
1 doe

Dr. B

2 bucks
1 doe

Yeah, but just look at the game check numbers for example. They surveyed thousands of people and their numbers show about 1.5 bucks being killed for every doe while our quick survey is showing 1.8…..With a couple hundred more responses to our survey here I could probably be within a tenth of what they getting….This why we don’t have to survey every hunter to get an estimate good enough to develop trends from.

Zero

1 buck

0

2 bucks
2 does

Zero

3/3

1- Buck
0- doe

0 for me. W.M.A. I hunted was a round 4.000 permits, around 224 deer harvest.--Buck 120 doe 89 button 15 . don't know last day.#

1buck
0 does

Bucks 0

Does 0

Bucks=1.
Does=1

Bucks - 0

Does - 3

So far most on here have been fairly consistent with no huge outliers.

My roommate took 1 doe this season.

Bucks-2
Does-0

Bucks: 0
Does: 2

Me- 1 buck
Son- 2 bucks 1 doe
Daughter- 3 bucks

Zero for both

4 hunters:

3 Does
1 Buck

Me-2 bucks
My son-1 buck
My daughter-0/0

At this point we’re now running 1.03 bucks for every hunter and 0.59 does……Our ratio of bucks to does is 1.74 bucks killed for every doe. Again, game check is showing 1.50.... so I’d say our survey is in the ballpark and getting more accurate the more votes we get.


BTW. I dropped the highest and lowest response off each end and averaged the rest for anyone keeping count.

# of deer killed

Alabama deer 1 doe

Florida deer 1 buck

Me: 1 buck
0 does
Son: 2 bucks
1 doe

1 buck, 1 doe

Alabama
Bucks 3
Does 0 ( killed one with my truck)

Mississippi
Bucks 2
Does 0

2-bucks
0-does

2 Bucks
1 Doe

Buck- 1

Doe- 1

Doe-1
Buck-0

0 me wife 0

1
1
The club killed 37 deer. 14 bucks and 23 does

Me:
Bucks - 1
Doe - 0

Cousin:
Bucks - 2
Doe - 1

How many members?

3 hunters

4 bucks
1 doe

2 bucks:
1 from Alabama
1 from Tennessee

I'm going to bring your stats up a little.

3 bucks
8 does

I can post for my 8 guys in at our place. On the DMAP program we were suppose to take 35 anterless deer.

We took 32 does
3 anterless deer (button bucks that hadn't broken the skin)

So 35

2 Bucks

3 hunters
4 bucks
3 does

Me - 3 bucks / 0 doe

My son - 1 buck / 1 doe

Me- 2 bucks / 0 does

Wife- 0 bucks / 2 does

Daughter- 1 buck / 0 does

0 for Ala
2 Bucks in Fla.

There’s our doe slayers finally showing up………

Ending at basseeker.....we have 113 hunters responding….I’ve dropped the two highest and two lowest and averaged the rest. Were still running within two tenths of GC numbers if you compare the ratio of bucks to does…..we’re at 1.28 now compared to their 1.50…..

Bucks killed per hunter - 1.05
Does killed per hunter - 0.82


Keep the votes coming!

CNC you’re not counting the people who are posting OOS kills are you? Those do no good here.

No...I'm just skipping those.

Matt......Do you know how many total hunters responded to GC this year?? If we had that number I could compare our individual hunter numbers to theirs.

EDIT: If our survey is accurate then it should be around 42K-43K or somewhere in that neighborhood.

My total: 1 buck and 3 does

Club total (12 members): 19 bucks and 21 does

ME: 2 bucks, 0 does
Dad: 2 bucks, 0 does

Me-1 buck, 1 doe
Son-3 bucks
Grandson-1 buck
Fellow member-1 doe

3 Hunters

4 bucks
2 does

I can account for my property, 4 hunters:
2 Does
2 Bucks

I can see why we have a screwed up buck to doe ratio in this state, people killing a dink buck instead of a doe

True. But the only people I know that care about ratios are in high deer areas. Everyone else just wants deer, period.

The numbers have really swung to less does than bucks in recent years. How much of that is due to less opportunity and how much is due to more trigger restraint??? A little of both I guess. The pendulum is swinging back the other way now after the heavy doe harvests of the past. I think a lot of people are reverting back to the old mindset of not shooting many does or any at all…..

Bucks-1
Does-2

Bucks - 2
Does - 0

My 8 year old son also killed 1 buck, 0 does

Maybe I missed something, but how in the heck did you determine the bucks killed were "dinks"??
I didn't see anything about points or scores.

Buck - 3
Does - 1

Buck - 1
Doe - 0

Me either.

1 buck
1 doe

3 bucks
1 doe

NR
son = 2 does
stepson = 0 (missed)
grandpa = 0
Me = 0

1 buck
0 does

5 hunters
1 - buck
0 - does

Very selective on the bucks we shoot but we have not harvested any does in the past 3 years because our neighbors hammer them and the herd does not need to sustain additional doe loses in our opinion. In this case, lack of higher buck and doe harvest numbers is intentional.

Me
Bucks: 2
Does: 2

Son
Bucks: 1
Does: 3

Guests
Bucks: 2
Does: 3

Me
Buck: 1
Doe: 1

Dad
Doe:1

Wife
Buck: 1

Guest:
Doe: 2

At this point we've surveyed 159 hunters........

Average bucks killed per hunter - 1.06

Average does killed per hunter - 0.84



I bet we're already pretty spot on with our buck average. There's a lot less chance for variance.

0 bucks
4 does

wife:
0 bucks
2 does

I had to work out of state. Hunted about six times and did not pull the trigger. Could have but bucks were small and I let family members shoot the does. Almost got a piggy just could not make the shot.

How many members? [/quote

22

3 hunters 1 buck zero does

Zero

Me - zero

Son - 1 doe, 1 buck

3 hunters
4 Bucks
1 Doe

zero

1 of each

7 hunters

2 bucks
1 doe

Bucks -2
Does-1

Wife
Bucks-0
Does-2

Buck 1
Doe 0

1 buck
2 does

1 buck
0 does

4 hunters

4 bucks

3 does

3 bucks
0 does

And, I actually SAW more bucks than does....which led to me shooting no does.

2 bucks
1 doe (could’ve killed 100)

Myself 1 doe

club (8 members)- 13 that I know of. 9 does and 4 bucks

Through Hogwild we're running............

212 hunters surveyed

204 bucks

176 does




Bucks killed per hunter 0.96

Does killed per hunter 0.83

2 Hunters all public land

5 bucks
0 does

Three hunters
Bucks 2
Does 0

myself-0

hunting club-4 bucks
4 does, 1 button head
8 members

2 bucks
1 doe

Me - 0
Son - 2 does
Daughter - 1 buck - 1 doe

CNC this has been very interesting.

If you are going to post your club numbers you actually have to post how many members for it to work people.

4 members in club
5 Bucks
1 Doe

CNC, thanks for doing this.

Bucks-1
Does-1
62 sits in the stand with several all day sits, only saw 15 deer

Club -26 members these numbers include my kill listed above
Bucks -7
Does-7

My place friends and family and myself

Bucks=3

Does= 8

Zero for me personally, back injuries suck. Non Member friend busted one.

Bucks = 1
Does = 0

Me- one buck

Dad- 2 bucks

2 Bucks

Lease includes 5 hunters these totals below include mine
4 bucks
3 does

Club

12 hunters
12 doe
6 buck

Bucks 0
Does 0

My year to pass

Bucks -2
Does-0

club of 8 members
8 bucks
2 does

My club
6 bucks
4 does

How many hunters?

Technically for everyone's club info to be accurate it would mean that no members killed deer other than the ones they killed at the hunting club. This is just for fun though so it's all good......

No problem..... ...I'm a nerd at heart.

1 doe for me, hunting private land, not a club.

Bucks = 1 (Private small acreage)
Does = 0

Through gut shot.........

Hunters 302
Bucks 263
Does 221

Bucks per hunter 0.87
Does per hunter 0.73

Me- 3 bucks 0 does
Bil- 2 bucks 2 does

Am I the only one that's surprised at the buck:doe ratio being killed? I figured 3 does/buck.

between my club and some family land thats attached to it, there were 15 does and 2 bucks

4 hunters:

2 bucks
1 doe

Club I'm in 14 hunters
9 does
7 bucks

People aren’t shooting nearly as many does these days as we were a decade ago. Maybe it’s a mentality change……If you would have asked this question 10-15 years ago then I guarantee you there would be a lot more people answering with “I killed 8 does!”……”I killed 6!”…..and you would have a couple that killed 10+. Right now out of over 300 hunters…..Matt is really the one and only outlier with 8 does. The vast majority of folks are killing one or two. I haven’t kept up with this number but just guessing I’d say that 40% of the responders said zero does.

Ok, So I was bored since I could not go out hunting. Took the harvest info from Monday Feb. 12 (it has gone up by 23 as of today) and put them on a map. here is the map and spreadsheet in a pdf format for you all to review and use. Also have put the 2017/2018 forecast up for comparison as well to compare what was forecasted and what happened..
I tried to stay in the lines as best I could, but you know how that goes....especially after a tasty beverage or two!!

I might try scanning it at a higher resolution as it is a bit grainy, will update once done.

Enjoy and I am sure there will be a comment or two!!

to Kelly123

Fine work, sir!

thanks alot

Kelly 123, compare that map you generated to Zone C reduced antlerless season Zone map.

14

It looks like the votes are starting to dwindle down now. Unless we get a lot more then then numbers likely won’t change much from what we currently have……

Bucks killed per hunter – 0.84
Does killed per hunter – 0.70

Now it’s like PCP was saying to begin with……We have to have some kind of accurate estimate of the number of hunters in the wood to get a total kill. That’s probably gonna be a real crap shoot. One thing you might could do though...... that a forum survey may be accurate enough to show.... is long term trends. If you did a survey like this every year and then compared the numbers over time.....you could likely still see that folks are shooting less deer, more deer…..less does, more does, etc……general tendencies.

Something I would like to see from the GC numbers is the total number of hunters that reported deer. It would be cool to see it county by county.

It's because there's not 3 does per buck left to kill in a lot if not most areas of the state. That's why we always have the conversation about our population being substantially lower each year. A long time ago, we were on the DMAP and really did need to kill the does. We were very protective on our bucks. After 4 years of hammering our does, it was easier to see rack bucks in our greenfields than it was to see does. We totally reversed it. Instead of seeing 5 or 6 does in a plot and the occasional buck, we were seeing 5-6 bucks and the occasional doe.
Does get smart too.

Bad year for me 0 bucks
0 does didn't even shoot
Put me on a field and they disappear next day it will be loaded

1 buck
1 doe

Here’s the hunter survey information for 2015-16 as well as a chart showing previous years…….

http://www.outdooralabama.com/sites...labama%20Hunting%20Survey%20Report_0.pdf


Going by what they’re showing…….We should have approx. 190,000 deer hunters if there hasn’t been any drastic changes compared to the last five years. If we use that number along with our average kill % then that gives us……..

159,000 bucks killed
133,000 does killed

Total Harvest: 292,000

In comparison, last years estimated harvest was 295,000 so we may not be that far off with our survey.

Our club-
Bucks: 13
Does: 15
26 Members
4100 acres

Bucks:1
Doe: 2

So if those numbers are correct and we as a state have an "estimated" 1.5 million deer, why isn't the deer population growing exponentially?

Personally because I think our estimate is way high. I wouldn't be surprised if we have less that 1M head.

Bucks 1
Doe 0
2 hunters

I think that the estimated population is high.
We, as AL hunters, are taking a higher percentage of the herd thanks normally depicted.

One thing to keep in mind is that we’re just looking at an estimated hunter harvest……not total mortality. In order to estimate total annual mortality we would have to add in the number of deer hit by cars, eaten by coyotes, died of disease/fighting, etc…..

No joke, four got killed within 200 yards of my house just this deer season. The # of car related deaths statewide would be staggering.

Just doing a quick search I found an estimate for 2013 that said 2100 deer/car related crashes…..That seems like bullchit. Maybe its not a real significant number compared to hunter harvest but I see dead deer all over the damn roads around here. That seems really low for statewide. Their estimate must just be insurance claims…..Maybe there’s a lot that are hit and not turned in on insurance.

I think coyotes are probably the biggest secondary factor next to hunters. However many coyotes there are in the woods…..you might as well just add that number to the 180,000 human hunters. …..how many deer (on average) does each yote kill during the whole year to add on to the top of our harvest???......

I should have said vehicle related deaths, I bet most are by semis at night, and they never check up.

1 doe.

me:
1 buck
1 doe


daughter
1 buck

I know a trucker who said he, himself, hit 14 deer this year... and your right, he never checks up, keeps the hammer down.

What’s the percentage of people that have commented vs the people that have viewed the post?

One buck two does tween me and my boys.

Big fat 0/0

Bucks three

2 Bucks
4 does

Could have easily tagged out on bucks, but hoping they survive till next year.

Total for the other 11 club members (plus 3 kids and 2 spouses that hunted some):

14 Bucks
22 Does

So, 16 Bucks and 26 does killed on our club.

Alright fellas, voting is now closed.......Here are the final tallies

394 hunters surveyed
322 bucks killed
286 does killed


Bucks killed per hunter 0.82
Does killed per hunter 0.72


Total estimated buck harvest 155,800
Total estimated doe harvest 136,800

Total estimated harvest 292,600

Good job, CNC. I would think that your final numbers are reasonably close to what actually happened. The number of hunters you used is probably low because you didn't count the unlicensed hunters, but the hunters that are interested enough in deer hunting to post on this forum probably killed more deer than hunters that just go a time or 2, so the errors may balance out and be pretty close. One thing in your survey's favor was that the deer killed per hunter didn't change a whole lot as you got more responses.

So this survey wasn't random and you had less than 400 to participate, and you still got a number very close to what the hunter survey has been showing for years. It was random and got more than 3000 responses, so maybe more folks can understand why I've always thought it should be correct within the standard error.

But the hunter survey method of measuring the deer harvest had no provision for enforcement of limits. Could it be that was the primary purpose of GC and all the talk about better data was just a smokescreen? I honestly can't say for sure, but I am sure the GC numbers are worthless unless most hunters start to participate in it.

Good hunting to all.

There were over 2900 views of this post yet only 197 replies. Less than 7% response rate. Does that factor in at all?

Thanks PCP!……..

We may still be off but I think we’re at least somewhere in the ballpark. The buck % has been slowly decreasing throughout the survey so if I had to guess I’d say we’re overestimating a little.

Not really. A lot of the same people are viewing the thread over and over. I'd say this survey pretty accurately predicts what Aldeer members are doing. That's a pretty good sample size for the forum. Like PCP was saying though, we're likely to be a little more active hunters so that may have us overestimating some.

Bucks 1, Does 2

Total off our place:
5 bucks, 3 does

2 bucks
1 doe

3 bucks. 2 does

2 bucks
1 doe